--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/fslr last_updated: 2026-05-09T13:07:46.995Z --- # First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T13:07:46.567Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $219.95 (▲ 2.51%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $23.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $135.50 – $285.99 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $3.26 (+3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $245 (+11.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 39/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## First Solar, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $3.26^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 39 = MoonshotScore 39^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. CuRe Revenue Potential Replication of CuRe across the Series 6 and 7 fleet supports the potentialization of up to $0.6 billion of additional revenue from technology adjusters, with the majority anticipated in 2027 and 2028. > "CuRe is scheduled to be replicated across the Series 6 and 7 fleet through the first half of 2028, which, if achieved, supports the potentialization of up to $0.6 billion of additional revenue from technology adjusters in the backlog with the majority anticipated in 2027 and 2028." > — Mark Widmar, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. FY26 Guidance Reaffirmation First Solar's full year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company's strategy and performance. > "Our full year 2026 guidance remains unchanged." > — Alexander Bradley, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. South Carolina Finishing Facility First Solar's South Carolina finishing facility is on track for production start in the second half of 2026, expected to provide finishing capacity for Series 6 modules. > "South Carolina finishing facility is on track for production start in the second half of 2026, with equipment installation beginning this quarter. Upon completion, this facility is expected to provide finishing capacity for Series 6 modules initiated at our international factories and optimize freight, tariff and domestic content outcomes while benefiting from Section 45X module assembly tax credits." > — Mark Widmar, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Backlog And ASP As of March 31, 2026, First Solar's contracted backlog was 47.9 gigawatts at an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion, exclusive of technology adjusters with deliveries through 2030. > "As of March 31, 2026, our contracted backlog was 47.9 gigawatts at an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion, exclusive of technology adjusters with deliveries through 2030." > — Alexander Bradley, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. CuRe Technology Advantage CuRe technology is expected to deliver up to 8% more lifetime specific energy yield than crystalline silicon Topcon, providing a competitive advantage for First Solar. > "With CuRe anticipated to deliver up to 8% more lifetime specific energy yield than crystalline silicon Topcon." > — Mark Widmar, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. US Manufacturing Utilization First Solar's U.S. facilities operated at approximately 96% utilization in the quarter, demonstrating strong manufacturing performance. > "Our U.S. facilities operated at approximately 96% utilization." > — Mark Widmar, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-4.8%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (46.5%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin very strong (33.8%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.3B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | average R&D (4.6%) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 64.1 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (58%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +11.4% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 64 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +11.4% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +11.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 64.1 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $198 — hisse %11.2 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $223 — hisse %1.3 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -29% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $3.18 | $2.66 | BEAT | +5.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.24 | $4.24 | MISS | +14.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.84 | $5.14 | MISS | -13.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $3.22 | $2.87 | +12.2% EPS | +4.9% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $3.22 vs $2.87 est^[FMP], +12.2% beat. D+1 movement: +4.9%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $3.26 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $3.26^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $245^{[FMP target]}; high target $326^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $3.26 + CapEx < $118.5M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.26^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $118.5M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $220^[FMP] and median $245^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.16 or CapEx ≥ $118.5M** Threshold: EPS < $3.16^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $220 below SMA200 $223^[FMP], if rejection continues, $189^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $3.22 vs $2.87 beat^[FMP], stock +4.9% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $118.5M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 33.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $245 (+11.4% upside vs current $220) - **High / Low:** $326 / $205 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 21 / 14 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 117 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. CuRe_Technology_Advantage **Claim:** CuRe technology is expected to deliver up to 8% more lifetime specific energy yield than crystalline silicon Topcon, providing a competitive advantage for First Solar. **Evidence (transcript):** "With CuRe anticipated to deliver up to 8% more lifetime specific energy yield than crystalline silicon Topcon." **Numbers:** 8% ### 2. CuRe_Revenue_Potential **Claim:** Replication of CuRe across the Series 6 and 7 fleet supports the potentialization of up to $0.6 billion of additional revenue from technology adjusters, with the majority anticipated in 2027 and 2028. **Evidence (transcript):** "CuRe is scheduled to be replicated across the Series 6 and 7 fleet through the first half of 2028, which, if achieved, supports the potentialization of up to $0.6 billion of additional revenue from technology adjusters in the backlog with the majority anticipated in 2027 and 2028." **Numbers:** 6, 2027, 2028 ### 3. US_Manufacturing_Utilization **Claim:** First Solar's U.S. facilities operated at approximately 96% utilization in the quarter, demonstrating strong manufacturing performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our U.S. facilities operated at approximately 96% utilization." **Numbers:** 96% ### 4. South_Carolina_Finishing_Facility **Claim:** First Solar's South Carolina finishing facility is on track for production start in the second half of 2026, expected to provide finishing capacity for Series 6 modules. **Evidence (transcript):** "South Carolina finishing facility is on track for production start in the second half of 2026, with equipment installation beginning this quarter. Upon completion, this facility is expected to provide finishing capacity for Series 6 modules initiated at our international factories and optimize freight, tariff and domestic content outcomes while benefiting from Section 45X module assembly tax credits." **Numbers:** 2026, 6, 45 ### 5. Backlog_and_ASP **Claim:** As of March 31, 2026, First Solar's contracted backlog was 47.9 gigawatts at an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion, exclusive of technology adjusters with deliveries through 2030. **Evidence (transcript):** "As of March 31, 2026, our contracted backlog was 47.9 gigawatts at an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion, exclusive of technology adjusters with deliveries through 2030." **Numbers:** 31, 2026, 47.9, 14.4, 2030 ### 6. FY26_Guidance_Reaffirmation **Claim:** First Solar's full year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, reflecting confidence in the company's strategy and performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our full year 2026 guidance remains unchanged." **Numbers:** 2026 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*