--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/goog last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:16:44.342Z --- # Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:16:43.216Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $383.22 (▲ 0.34%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $4.64T | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $149.49 – $383.39 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 22 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.86 (+24% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $116.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $375 (-2.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 61/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Alphabet Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $116.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.86^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 61 = MoonshotScore 61^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Capex Increase Full year 2026 CapEx guidance range updated to $180 billion to $190 billion due to Intersect acquisition, with a significant increase expected in 2027. > "We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion, up from our previous estimate of $175 billion to $185 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, which closed in March. And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026." > — Anat Ashkenazi, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Google Cloud Growth Google Cloud revenues increased by 63% to over $20 billion, driven by strong performance in GCP. > "Cloud accelerated again this quarter due to strong demand for our AI products and infrastructure. Revenue grew 63%, exceeding $20 billion for the first time" > — Sundar Pichai, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Search Revenue Growth In Search & Other revenue grew 19%. People love our AI experiences like AI Mode and AI overviews and they're coming back to search more. > "In Search & Other revenue grew 19%. People love our AI experiences like AI Mode and AI overviews and they're coming back to search more." > — Sundar Pichai, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Paid Subscriptions Growth Overall, the number of paid subscriptions has now reached 350 million with YouTube and Google One being the key drivers. > "Overall, the number of paid subscriptions has now reached 350 million with YouTube and Google One being the key drivers." > — Sundar Pichai, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Google Cloud Backlog Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled quarter-on-quarter to over $460 billion. > "Revenue grew 63%, exceeding $20 billion for the first time and our backlog nearly doubled quarter-on-quarter to over $460 billion." > — Sundar Pichai, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Gemini Enterprise Momentum Gemini Enterprise is seeing tremendous momentum with 40% growth quarter-over-quarter in paid monthly active users. > "Gemini Enterprise is seeing tremendous momentum with 40% growth quarter-over-quarter in paid monthly active users." > — Sundar Pichai, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 7.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.0%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (62.4%) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (36.1%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 8.0 | strong | FCF strong ($19.0B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | high R&D intensity (15.3%, aggressive) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 82.8 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (90%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -2.1% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 83 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -2.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -2.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 82.8 — overbought (RSI 82.8) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $314 — hisse %22.0 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $281 — hisse %36.2 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +38% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.31 | $2.18 | BEAT | +0.9% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.87 | $2.30 | BEAT | +2.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.82 | $2.63 | BEAT | -0.6% | | Q1 FY26 | $5.11 | $2.68 | +90.7% EPS | +10.0% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $5.11 vs $2.68 est^[FMP], +90.7% beat. D+1 movement: +10.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.86 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.86^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $375^{[FMP target]}; high target $450^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.86 + CapEx < $17.2B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.86^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $17.2B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $383^[FMP] and median $375^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.77 or CapEx ≥ $17.2B** Threshold: EPS < $2.77^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $383 below SMA200 $281^[FMP], if rejection continues, $239^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $5.11 vs $2.68 beat^[FMP], stock +10.0% D+1^[FMP]. Anat Ashkenazi Q1 transcript: "Cloud accelerated again this quarter due to strong demand for our AI products and infrastructure. Revenue grew 63%, exceeding $20 billion for the first time"^{[Anat Ashkenazi]}. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $17.2B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Anat Ashkenazi Q1 transcript: "And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026."^{[Anat Ashkenazi transcript]}. Q1 op margin 36.1%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $375 (-2.1% upside vs current $383) - **High / Low:** $450 / $300 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 61 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 14 (last quarter), 112 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. google_cloud_growth **Claim:** Google Cloud revenues increased by 63% to over $20 billion, driven by strong performance in GCP. **Evidence (transcript):** "Cloud accelerated again this quarter due to strong demand for our AI products and infrastructure. Revenue grew 63%, exceeding $20 billion for the first time" **Numbers:** 63%, $20 billion ### 2. google_cloud_backlog **Claim:** Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled quarter-on-quarter to over $460 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "Revenue grew 63%, exceeding $20 billion for the first time and our backlog nearly doubled quarter-on-quarter to over $460 billion." **Numbers:** 63%, $20 billion, $460 billion ### 3. gemini_enterprise_momentum **Claim:** Gemini Enterprise is seeing tremendous momentum with 40% growth quarter-over-quarter in paid monthly active users. **Evidence (transcript):** "Gemini Enterprise is seeing tremendous momentum with 40% growth quarter-over-quarter in paid monthly active users." **Numbers:** 40% ### 4. paid_subscriptions_growth **Claim:** Overall, the number of paid subscriptions has now reached 350 million with YouTube and Google One being the key drivers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, the number of paid subscriptions has now reached 350 million with YouTube and Google One being the key drivers." **Numbers:** 350 million ### 5. search_revenue_growth **Claim:** In Search & Other revenue grew 19%. People love our AI experiences like AI Mode and AI overviews and they're coming back to search more. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Search & Other revenue grew 19%. People love our AI experiences like AI Mode and AI overviews and they're coming back to search more." **Numbers:** 19% ### 6. capex_increase **Claim:** Full year 2026 CapEx guidance range updated to $180 billion to $190 billion due to Intersect acquisition, with a significant increase expected in 2027. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion, up from our previous estimate of $175 billion to $185 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, which closed in March. And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026." **Numbers:** 2026, $180 billion, $190 billion, $175 billion, $185 billion, 2027 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*