--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/googl last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:15:06.117Z --- # Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:15:04.976Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $385.69 (▲ 0.23%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $4.66T | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $147.84 – $386.76 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 22 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.86 (+24% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $116.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $410 (+6.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 61/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Alphabet Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $116.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.86^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 61 = MoonshotScore 61^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Capex Increase Alphabet is updating its full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, and they expect their 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026. > "We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, which closed in March. And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026." > — Anat Ashkenazi, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Google Cloud Growth Google Cloud revenues grew by 63% to over $20 billion, with GCP growing at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth. > "Cloud revenues accelerate across all key areas and were up 63% to $20 billion. Revenue growth was driven by strong performance in GCP, which continued to grow at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth rate." > — Anat Ashkenazi, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Gemini Enterprise Growth Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter, and they saw 9x year-over-year growth both in seats sold with partners. > "In Q1, Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter. We saw 9x year-over-year growth both in seats sold with partners." > — Sundar Pichai, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Youtube Shorts Growth On YouTube, they have reached a new milestone with over 10 million channels now publishing shots each day, this level of daily activity is a testament to how people enjoy this content and how they made it easier for creators. > "And as of March, we have reached a new milestone with over 10 million channels now publishing shots each day. This level of daily activity is a testament to how people enjoy this content and how we made it easier for creators." > — Sundar Pichai, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Google Cloud Backlog Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled sequentially, reaching $462 billion at the end of the first quarter. The increase was driven by strong demand for enterprise AI offerings and the inclusion of TPU hardware sales that Sundar referenced earlier. > "And Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled sequentially, reaching $462 billion at the end of the first quarter. The increase was driven by strong demand for enterprise AI offerings and the inclusion of TPU hardware sales that Sundar referenced earlier." > — Anat Ashkenazi, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 7.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.0%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (62.4%) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (36.1%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 8.0 | strong | FCF strong ($19.0B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | high R&D intensity (15.3%, aggressive) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 82.5 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (90%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +6.3% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 83 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +6.3% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +6.3% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 82.5 — overbought (RSI 82.5) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $316 — hisse %22.2 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $281 — hisse %37.2 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -0% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.31 | $2.15 | BEAT | +1.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.87 | $2.30 | BEAT | +2.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.82 | $2.57 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $5.11 | $2.64 | +93.6% EPS | +10.0% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $5.11 vs $2.64 est^[FMP], +93.6% beat. D+1 movement: +10.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.86 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.86^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $410^{[FMP target]}; high target $460^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.86 + CapEx < $17.2B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.86^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $17.2B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $386^[FMP] and median $410^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.77 or CapEx ≥ $17.2B** Threshold: EPS < $2.77^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $386 below SMA200 $281^[FMP], if rejection continues, $239^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $5.11 vs $2.64 beat^[FMP], stock +10.0% D+1^[FMP]. Anat Ashkenazi Q1 transcript: "Cloud revenues accelerate across all key areas and were up 63% to $20 billion. Revenue growth was driven by strong performance in GCP, which continued to grow at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth rate."^{[Anat Ashkenazi]}. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $17.2B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Anat Ashkenazi Q1 transcript: "And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026."^{[Anat Ashkenazi transcript]}. Q1 op margin 36.1%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $410 (+6.3% upside vs current $386) - **High / Low:** $460 / $355 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 60 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 34 (last quarter), 252 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. google_cloud_growth **Claim:** Google Cloud revenues grew by 63% to over $20 billion, with GCP growing at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Cloud revenues accelerate across all key areas and were up 63% to $20 billion. Revenue growth was driven by strong performance in GCP, which continued to grow at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth rate." **Numbers:** 63%, $20 billion ### 2. google_cloud_backlog **Claim:** Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled sequentially, reaching $462 billion at the end of the first quarter. The increase was driven by strong demand for enterprise AI offerings and the inclusion of TPU hardware sales that Sundar referenced earlier. **Evidence (transcript):** "And Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled sequentially, reaching $462 billion at the end of the first quarter. The increase was driven by strong demand for enterprise AI offerings and the inclusion of TPU hardware sales that Sundar referenced earlier." **Numbers:** $462 billion ### 3. gemini_enterprise_growth **Claim:** Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter, and they saw 9x year-over-year growth both in seats sold with partners. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Q1, Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter. We saw 9x year-over-year growth both in seats sold with partners." **Numbers:** 40%, 9x ### 4. capex_increase **Claim:** Alphabet is updating its full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, and they expect their 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, which closed in March. And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026." **Numbers:** $180 billion, $190 billion, 2027, 2026 ### 5. search_growth_ai **Claim:** In Search, AI continues to drive search usage and queries are at an all-time high, and investments in improvements to AI overviews are driving overall search growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "Turning to Search. AI continues to drive search usage and queries are at an all-time high. We continue to invest in improvements to AI overviews, which are driving overall search growth" **Numbers:** — ### 6. youtube_shorts_growth **Claim:** On YouTube, they have reached a new milestone with over 10 million channels now publishing shots each day, this level of daily activity is a testament to how people enjoy this content and how they made it easier for creators. **Evidence (transcript):** "And as of March, we have reached a new milestone with over 10 million channels now publishing shots each day. This level of daily activity is a testament to how people enjoy this content and how we made it easier for creators." **Numbers:** 10 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*