--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/gpc last_updated: 2026-05-09T15:21:29.270Z --- # Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T15:21:28.822Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $104.72 (▼ -0.50%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $14.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $96.08 – $151.57 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.06 (-2% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $6.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $140 (+33.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 27/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Genuine Parts Company — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $6.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.06^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 27 = MoonshotScore 27^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Outlook Reaffirmation GPC is reaffirming its outlook for 2026, continuing to expect diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.60 and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.50 to $8. > "For the full year, we continue to expect diluted earnings per share, which includes the expenses related to our restructuring efforts to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.60 and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.50 to $8, up 5% at the midpoint of the range versus 2025." > — Herbert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. North America Auto Sales Within North America, total sales in the U.S. were up approximately 4% for the quarter, with comparable sales up approximately 3% and price contribution of approximately 3%. > "Within North America, total sales in the U.S. were up approximately 4% for the quarter, with comparable sales up approximately 3% and price contribution of approximately 3%." > — William Stengel, Chair-Elect and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Separation Cost Estimates GPC estimates the range of cost is $100 million to $150 million for incremental run rate dis-synergy costs and stand-alone costs for the new public company. > "As we have outlined on Slide 11 of our earnings presentation, our estimated range of cost is $100 million to $150 million." > — Herbert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. International Automotive Sales Total sales during the quarter increased approximately 13%, with comparable sales slightly positive. > "Total sales during the quarter increased approximately 13%, with comparable sales slightly positive." > — William Stengel, Chair-Elect and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+1.6%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (37.3%) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (4.6%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.0B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.5 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (44% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +33.7% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +33.7% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +33.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 43.5 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $108 — hisse %2.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $127 — hisse %17.2 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -30% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.10 | $2.06 | BEAT | +1.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.98 | $2.02 | MISS | -1.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.55 | $1.82 | MISS | -3.8% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.77 | $1.81 | +-2.2% EPS | -2.8% | Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $1.77 vs $1.81 est^[FMP], +-2.2% beat. D+1 movement: -2.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.06 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.06^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $140^{[FMP target]}; high target $160^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.06 + CapEx < $97.6M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.06^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $97.6M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $105^[FMP] and median $140^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.00 or CapEx ≥ $97.6M** Threshold: EPS < $2.00^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $105 below SMA200 $127^[FMP], if rejection continues, $108^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.77 vs $1.81 beat^[FMP], stock -2.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $97.6M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 4.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $140 (+33.7% upside vs current $105) - **High / Low:** $160 / $127 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 4 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 20 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. industrial_segment_growth **Claim:** Motion delivered a strong first quarter with balanced growth across our large corporate account customers as well as with our small- to medium-sized local accounts. **Evidence (transcript):** "Motion delivered a strong first quarter with balanced growth across our large corporate account customers as well as with our small- to medium-sized local accounts." **Numbers:** — ### 2. industrial_market_optimism **Claim:** GPC remains cautiously optimistic about the outlook for industrial market conditions. **Evidence (transcript):** "We remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for industrial market conditions." **Numbers:** — ### 3. north_america_auto_sales **Claim:** Within North America, total sales in the U.S. were up approximately 4% for the quarter, with comparable sales up approximately 3% and price contribution of approximately 3%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Within North America, total sales in the U.S. were up approximately 4% for the quarter, with comparable sales up approximately 3% and price contribution of approximately 3%." **Numbers:** 4%, 3%, 3% ### 4. international_automotive_sales **Claim:** Total sales during the quarter increased approximately 13%, with comparable sales slightly positive. **Evidence (transcript):** "Total sales during the quarter increased approximately 13%, with comparable sales slightly positive." **Numbers:** 13% ### 5. separation_cost_estimates **Claim:** GPC estimates the range of cost is $100 million to $150 million for incremental run rate dis-synergy costs and stand-alone costs for the new public company. **Evidence (transcript):** "As we have outlined on Slide 11 of our earnings presentation, our estimated range of cost is $100 million to $150 million." **Numbers:** 100 million, 150 million, 11 ### 6. fy26_outlook_reaffirmation **Claim:** GPC is reaffirming its outlook for 2026, continuing to expect diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.60 and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.50 to $8. **Evidence (transcript):** "For the full year, we continue to expect diluted earnings per share, which includes the expenses related to our restructuring efforts to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.60 and adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.50 to $8, up 5% at the midpoint of the range versus 2025." **Numbers:** 6.10, 6.60, 7.50, 8, 5%, 2025 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*