--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/hca last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:04:22.998Z --- # HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:04:22.015Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $433.09 (▼ -0.31%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $96.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $330.00 – $556.52 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Fri 24 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $7.38 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $19.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $530 (+22.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## HCA Healthcare, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $19.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $7.38^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Exchange Impact Estimate The company estimates the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter. > "We estimate the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter." > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Full Year Exchange Impact The company still believes its full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate. > "Given our experience to date, we still believe our full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate." > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Share Repurchases Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter. > "Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter." > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Capital Expenditures Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter. > "Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter." > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.7%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (15.0%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (15.0%) | | Cash Runway | 7.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($0.9B vs $1.1B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 30.9 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (60%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +22.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 31 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +22.4% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +22.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 30.9 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $497 — hisse %12.8 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $457 — hisse %5.3 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -34% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $6.84 | $6.29 | BEAT | +1.9% | | Q3 FY25 | $6.96 | $5.79 | BEAT | +4.7% | | Q4 FY25 | $8.01 | $7.46 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $7.15 | $7.12 | +0.4% EPS | +3.1% | Q1 (April 24, 2026): EPS $7.15 vs $7.12 est^[FMP], +0.4% beat. D+1 movement: +3.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $7.38 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $7.38^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $530^{[FMP target]}; high target $635^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $7.38 + CapEx < $1.1B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $7.38^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.1B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $433^[FMP] and median $530^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $7.16 or CapEx ≥ $1.1B** Threshold: EPS < $7.16^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $433 below SMA200 $457^[FMP], if rejection continues, $389^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $7.15 vs $7.12 beat^[FMP], stock +3.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $1.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 15.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $530 (+22.4% upside vs current $433) - **High / Low:** $635 / $436 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 15 / 9 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 103 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. volume_rebound **Claim:** The company noted that the impacts of respiratory-related issues and the winter storm were mostly contained to January, with February and March volumes rebounding nicely. **Evidence (transcript):** "The reparatory related and winter storm impacts were mostly contained to January, with February and March volumes rebounding nicely." **Numbers:** — ### 2. supplemental_payment_impact **Claim:** The company experienced a greater net benefit than anticipated from state supplemental programs, which mostly offset impacts from the shortfall in volumes. **Evidence (transcript):** "On the positive side, however, we experienced a greater net benefit than anticipated from state supplemental programs. As a reminder, these programs are complex, they're variable and difficult to predict. This benefit mostly offset impacts from the shortfall in volumes." **Numbers:** — ### 3. exchange_impact_estimate **Claim:** The company estimates the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "We estimate the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter." **Numbers:** $150 million, 2026 ### 4. full_year_exchange_impact **Claim:** The company still believes its full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given our experience to date, we still believe our full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate." **Numbers:** $600 million, $900 million ### 5. capital_expenditures **Claim:** Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter." **Numbers:** $1.1 billion ### 6. share_repurchases **Claim:** Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter." **Numbers:** $1.57 billion, $183 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*