--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/hd last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:48:09.790Z --- # The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-19 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:48:08.522Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $323.88 (▼ -1.50%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $322.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $315.31 – $426.75 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 19 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $3.42 (-4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $41.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $418 (+28.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 39/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## The Home Depot, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $41.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $3.42^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 39 = MoonshotScore 39^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Sales Growth The company expects total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% for fiscal year 2026. > "Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4%." > — Edward Decker, Chair, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Online Sales Growth Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. > "Turning to total company online comp sales. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year." > — William Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Capital Expenditures Guidance The company plans to continue investing in its business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026. > "We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026." > — Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Big Ticket Performance Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. > "Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year." > — William Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: growth negative (-4.2%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: average margin (32.6%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (10.1%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.3B, 2.2× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 40.0 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (59%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +28.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 40 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +28.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +28.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 40.0 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $343 — hisse %5.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $371 — hisse %12.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +10% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $3.56 | $3.60 | MISS | -1.6% | | Q2 FY25 | $4.68 | $4.72 | MISS | -1.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.74 | $3.83 | MISS | -0.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.72 | $2.53 | +7.5% EPS | -2.3% | Q4 (February 24, 2026): EPS $2.72 vs $2.53 est^[FMP], +7.5% beat. D+1 movement: -2.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $3.42 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $3.42^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $418^{[FMP target]}; high target $454^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $3.42 + CapEx < $1.1B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.42^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.1B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $324^[FMP] and median $418^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.32 or CapEx ≥ $1.1B** Threshold: EPS < $3.32^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $324 below SMA200 $371^[FMP], if rejection continues, $315^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $2.72 vs $2.53 beat^[FMP], stock -2.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $1.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 10.1%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $418 (+28.9% upside vs current $324) - **High / Low:** $454 / $320 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 22 / 15 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 122 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_sales_growth **Claim:** The company expects total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% for fiscal year 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4%." **Numbers:** 2.5%, 4.5%, 2%, 4% ### 2. pro_ecosystem_growth **Claim:** Pros utilizing the Pro ecosystem of capabilities are spending more, and the company remains focused on enhancing its capabilities to better support Pros. **Evidence (transcript):** "Pros who are utilizing our Pro ecosystem of capabilities are spending more with us, and we remain focused on enhancing our capabilities from sales support to project management to delivery, all to better support Pros throughout the life of their projects." **Numbers:** — ### 3. srs_organic_growth **Claim:** SRS's organic sales are expected to grow mid-single digits in fiscal 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "Going forward, we will continue to support SRS' momentum, and we expect their organic sales to grow mid-single digits in fiscal 2026." **Numbers:** — ### 4. online_sales_growth **Claim:** Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Turning to total company online comp sales. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year." **Numbers:** 11% ### 5. big_ticket_performance **Claim:** Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year." **Numbers:** 1,000, 1.3% ### 6. capital_expenditures_guidance **Claim:** The company plans to continue investing in its business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026." **Numbers:** 2.5% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*