--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/hig last_updated: 2026-05-09T10:59:36.618Z --- # The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T10:59:36.107Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $131.99 (▼ -0.51%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $36.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $119.61 – $144.50 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 27 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $3.31 (-3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $7.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $155 (+17.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 40/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $7.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $3.31^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 40 = MoonshotScore 40^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Business Insurance Growth The Hartford continues to drive profitable growth in Business Insurance through disciplined underwriting and technology-enabled execution. > "In Business Insurance, a diversified portfolio, strong distribution relationships, disciplined underwriting and technology-enabled execution continue to drive profitable growth at attractive returns." > — Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Business Insurance Pricing The Hartford's Business Insurance renewal written pricing, excluding workers' compensation, remained relatively consistent at 6% in the quarter. > "Business Insurance renewal written pricing, excluding workers' compensation, remained relatively consistent at 6% in the quarter." > — Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Employee Benefits Leadership The Hartford's leadership in the Employee Benefits business is anchored by its position in absence and leave solutions at the large end of the market, and ongoing investments will enable them to extend those capabilities to small and midsized customers. > "Employee Benefits remains a high-quality accretive business where our leadership in absence and leave positions us well at the large end of the market and ongoing investments will enable us to extend those capabilities to small and midsized customers." > — Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Small Business Performance The Hartford's small business strategy is supported by a flexible multichannel go-to-market model, providing customers with multiple ways to engage. > "Our small business strategy is supported by a flexible multichannel go-to-market model. Customers have multiple ways to engage, whether it's through agents directly or via embedded capabilities such as payroll providers." > — Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Personal Insurance Expansion The Hartford remains focused on thoughtful market share expansion in Personal Insurance, supported by continued progress in the agency channel. > "In Personal Insurance, our focus remains on thoughtful market share expansion, supported by continued progress in the agency channel." > — Christopher Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.4%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (44.7%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (14.6%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.0B, 32.7× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 38.1 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (43% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +17.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 38 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +17.4% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +17.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 38.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $137 — hisse %3.3 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $134 — hisse %1.2 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -33% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $3.41 | $2.83 | BEAT | +2.8% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.78 | $3.09 | BEAT | -1.8% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.06 | $3.17 | BEAT | +2.0% | | Q1 FY26 | $3.09 | $3.39 | +-8.8% EPS | -3.7% | Q1 (April 24, 2026): EPS $3.09 vs $3.39 est^[FMP], +-8.8% beat. D+1 movement: -3.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $3.31 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $3.31^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $155^{[FMP target]}; high target $165^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $3.31 + CapEx < $31.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.31^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $31.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $132^[FMP] and median $155^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.21 or CapEx ≥ $31.0M** Threshold: EPS < $3.21^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $132 below SMA200 $134^[FMP], if rejection continues, $114^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $3.09 vs $3.39 beat^[FMP], stock -3.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $31.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 14.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $155 (+17.4% upside vs current $132) - **High / Low:** $165 / $135 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 10 / 13 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 0 (last quarter), 40 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. business_insurance_growth **Claim:** The Hartford continues to drive profitable growth in Business Insurance through disciplined underwriting and technology-enabled execution. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Business Insurance, a diversified portfolio, strong distribution relationships, disciplined underwriting and technology-enabled execution continue to drive profitable growth at attractive returns." **Numbers:** — ### 2. personal_insurance_expansion **Claim:** The Hartford remains focused on thoughtful market share expansion in Personal Insurance, supported by continued progress in the agency channel. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Personal Insurance, our focus remains on thoughtful market share expansion, supported by continued progress in the agency channel." **Numbers:** — ### 3. employee_benefits_leadership **Claim:** The Hartford's leadership in the Employee Benefits business is anchored by its position in absence and leave solutions at the large end of the market, and ongoing investments will enable them to extend those capabilities to small and midsized customers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Employee Benefits remains a high-quality accretive business where our leadership in absence and leave positions us well at the large end of the market and ongoing investments will enable us to extend those capabilities to small and midsized customers." **Numbers:** — ### 4. small_business_performance **Claim:** The Hartford's small business strategy is supported by a flexible multichannel go-to-market model, providing customers with multiple ways to engage. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our small business strategy is supported by a flexible multichannel go-to-market model. Customers have multiple ways to engage, whether it's through agents directly or via embedded capabilities such as payroll providers." **Numbers:** — ### 5. business_insurance_pricing **Claim:** The Hartford's Business Insurance renewal written pricing, excluding workers' compensation, remained relatively consistent at 6% in the quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "Business Insurance renewal written pricing, excluding workers' compensation, remained relatively consistent at 6% in the quarter." **Numbers:** 6% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*