--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/hsy last_updated: 2026-05-05T22:43:06.278Z --- # The Hershey Company (HSY) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T22:43:05.874Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $184.91 (▲ 1.59%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $37.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $150.04 – $239.48 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.44 (+19% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 6/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $224 (+20.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## The Hershey Company — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.44^{[FMP est]}. 6 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 50 = MoonshotScore 50^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Gross Margin Improvement Gross margins are expected to increase by nearly 3% in Q2 and continue to increase in the back half of the year. > "we're expecting in Q2 gross margins to increase by nearly 300 basis points versus the prior year period. So that's where you really start to see the inflection. And then as we get to the back half of the year, we expect something great basis points." > — Steven Voskuil, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Salty Snacks Growth Growth in the salty snacks segment is driven by private label products, but Hershey's core brands are up nearly 10%. > "One thing that I would say on snacks are on our salty snacks is -- that's primarily driven by private label. And so our core brands in salty are up nearly 10%. So that is not the issue." > — Kirk Tanner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. H2 Topline Momentum Hershey is confident in H2 topline momentum, driven by strong seasons plan, positive resets, and innovation. > "Yes. Good question. Yes, we have confidence in H2, driven by a few things. One, we see a really strong seasons plan for the second half. Our tentpole will deliver a full point of growth Americana, the Hershey movie, we've got a lot built into that, a lot of support from our customers." > — Kirk Tanner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Macro Environment Impact The macro environment is tracking within expectations for the year, including SNAP effects. > "But overall, the macro environment is tracking within our expectations of the year. When we talk about SNAP specifically, we realistically modeled the possible effects right from the beginning." > — Kirk Tanner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Easter Sell Through Performance Easter sell-through exceeded expectations, and Hershey's share during the Easter season was also ahead of expectations. > "But we're very happy with our performance and the sell-through that we saw those exceeded our expectation, and our share was also ahead of our expectations coming out of Easter." > — Kirk Tanner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. North America Confectionery Competition Despite increased competition in the North America confectionery market, the pricing environment remains rational. > "Yes. I'd start with competition continues to be highly rational. There's no change in the pricing environment. I just want to start with that." > — Kirk Tanner, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 9.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+18.7%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (39.4%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (20.6%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.4B, 3.1× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 34.3 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | majority sell/hold (28% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +20.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 34 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +20.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +20.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 34.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $208 — hisse %11.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $193 — hisse %4.3 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -17% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.21 | $0.99 | BEAT | -1.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.30 | $1.07 | BEAT | -0.9% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.71 | $1.40 | BEAT | +3.2% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.35 | $2.04 | +15.2% EPS | -1.8% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $2.35 vs $2.04 est^[FMP], +15.2% beat. D+1 movement: -1.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.44 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.44^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $224^{[FMP target]}; high target $260^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.44 + CapEx < $114.6M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.44^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $114.6M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $185^[FMP] and median $224^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.40 or CapEx ≥ $114.6M** Threshold: EPS < $1.40^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $185 below SMA200 $193^[FMP], if rejection continues, $164^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.35 vs $2.04 beat^[FMP], stock -1.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $114.6M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 20.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $224 (+20.9% upside vs current $185) - **High / Low:** $260 / $181 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 17 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 17 (last quarter), 72 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. north_america_confectionery_competition **Claim:** Despite increased competition in the North America confectionery market, the pricing environment remains rational. **Evidence (transcript):** "Yes. I'd start with competition continues to be highly rational. There's no change in the pricing environment. I just want to start with that." **Numbers:** — ### 2. easter_sell_through_performance **Claim:** Easter sell-through exceeded expectations, and Hershey's share during the Easter season was also ahead of expectations. **Evidence (transcript):** "But we're very happy with our performance and the sell-through that we saw those exceeded our expectation, and our share was also ahead of our expectations coming out of Easter." **Numbers:** — ### 3. macro_environment_impact **Claim:** The macro environment is tracking within expectations for the year, including SNAP effects. **Evidence (transcript):** "But overall, the macro environment is tracking within our expectations of the year. When we talk about SNAP specifically, we realistically modeled the possible effects right from the beginning." **Numbers:** — ### 4. q2_organic_sales_decline **Claim:** Organic sales are expected to be slightly down in Q2 due to strong Easter sell-through and some international customer pull-forward. **Evidence (transcript):** "Yes, it is expected to be slightly down in Q2 due to that timing that we just talked about." **Numbers:** — ### 5. gross_margin_improvement **Claim:** Gross margins are expected to increase by nearly 3% in Q2 and continue to increase in the back half of the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "we're expecting in Q2 gross margins to increase by nearly 300 basis points versus the prior year period. So that's where you really start to see the inflection. And then as we get to the back half of the year, we expect something great basis points." **Numbers:** 300 ### 6. h2_topline_momentum **Claim:** Hershey is confident in H2 topline momentum, driven by strong seasons plan, positive resets, and innovation. **Evidence (transcript):** "Yes. Good question. Yes, we have confidence in H2, driven by a few things. One, we see a really strong seasons plan for the second half. Our tentpole will deliver a full point of growth Americana, the Hershey movie, we've got a lot built into that, a lot of support from our customers." **Numbers:** — ### 7. salty_snacks_growth **Claim:** Growth in the salty snacks segment is driven by private label products, but Hershey's core brands are up nearly 10%. **Evidence (transcript):** "One thing that I would say on snacks are on our salty snacks is -- that's primarily driven by private label. And so our core brands in salty are up nearly 10%. So that is not the issue." **Numbers:** 10% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*