--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/hum last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:07:48.944Z --- # Humana Inc. (HUM) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:07:48.376Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $274.96 (▲ 11.27%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $33.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $163.11 – $315.35 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $6.46 (+3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $40.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $259 (-5.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Humana Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $40.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $6.46^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (3 metrics) ### 1. Member Growth On Track Humana's member growth trajectory is on track, and membership, both new and returning, is performing as expected 3 months into the year. > "First of all, our member growth trajectory is on track. Now we will, and we have and we will continue to manage distribution and growth dynamically if things change, but our growth trajectory is on track. Second, I want to emphasize that membership, both new and returning, is performing as expected 3 months into the year." > — James Rechtin, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Stars Rating Outlook Humana remains confident that it's on track to return to top quartile Stars results in BY '28 and is seeing a strong early start for BY '29 Stars. > "Our outlook on BY '28 Stars has not changed. We continue to be confident that we're on the right track to return to top quartile Stars results in BY '28. For BY '29 Stars, we are seeing a strong early start." > — James Rechtin, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Balance Sheet Optimization Humana has implemented several initiatives to strengthen its balance sheet and has bolstered liquidity to address future funding needs. > "Over the last 12 months, we have made considerable progress towards this end. Our efforts include bolstering liquidity and addressing future funding needs with rating agency-friendly instruments, such as the $1 billion junior subordinated notes we completed in March, which is expected to fund 2027 maturities." > — Celeste Mellet, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+22.4%) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (15.0%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (4.0%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.1B, 9.4× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 84.6 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | mixed (31% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -5.8% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 85 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -5.8% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -5.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 84.6 — overbought (RSI 84.6) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $196 — hisse %40.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $241 — hisse %14.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +57% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $6.27 | $5.92 | BEAT | -4.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.24 | $2.93 | BEAT | -5.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $-3.96 | $-4.00 | BEAT | +2.0% | | Q1 FY26 | $10.31 | $9.97 | +3.4% EPS | -2.7% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $10.31 vs $9.97 est^[FMP], +3.4% beat. D+1 movement: -2.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $6.46 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $6.46^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $259^{[FMP target]}; high target $344^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $6.46 + CapEx < $121.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $6.46^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $121.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $275^[FMP] and median $259^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $6.27 or CapEx ≥ $121.0M** Threshold: EPS < $6.27^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $275 below SMA200 $241^[FMP], if rejection continues, $205^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $10.31 vs $9.97 beat^[FMP], stock -2.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $121.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 4.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $259 (-5.8% upside vs current $275) - **High / Low:** $344 / $146 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 8 / 16 / 2 - **Analyst count:** 19 (last quarter), 89 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. member_growth_on_track **Claim:** Humana's member growth trajectory is on track, and membership, both new and returning, is performing as expected 3 months into the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "First of all, our member growth trajectory is on track. Now we will, and we have and we will continue to manage distribution and growth dynamically if things change, but our growth trajectory is on track. Second, I want to emphasize that membership, both new and returning, is performing as expected 3 months into the year." **Numbers:** 3 ### 2. stars_rating_outlook **Claim:** Humana remains confident that it's on track to return to top quartile Stars results in BY '28 and is seeing a strong early start for BY '29 Stars. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our outlook on BY '28 Stars has not changed. We continue to be confident that we're on the right track to return to top quartile Stars results in BY '28. For BY '29 Stars, we are seeing a strong early start." **Numbers:** 28, 29 ### 3. balance_sheet_optimization **Claim:** Humana has implemented several initiatives to strengthen its balance sheet and has bolstered liquidity to address future funding needs. **Evidence (transcript):** "Over the last 12 months, we have made considerable progress towards this end. Our efforts include bolstering liquidity and addressing future funding needs with rating agency-friendly instruments, such as the $1 billion junior subordinated notes we completed in March, which is expected to fund 2027 maturities." **Numbers:** 1, 2027 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*