--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/hwm last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:07:41.616Z --- # Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:07:40.549Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $239.51 (▼ -1.45%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $96.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $150.63 – $267.31 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.11 (+29% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $280 (+16.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 54/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Howmet Aerospace Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.2B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.11^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 54 = MoonshotScore 54^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Engine Products Growth The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion. > "The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion, commercial aerospace was up 17%, and defense aerospace was up 18%." > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Defense Aerospace Growth Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds. > "Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter. For the full year, Defense aerospace was up 21%, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds." > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Spares Revenue Growth Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019. > "Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019." > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Gas Turbine Growth Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter, driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers. > "Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter and up 25% for the full year. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers." > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Commercial Aerospace Growth Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. > "Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, with revenue up 13% in the fourth quarter and up 12% for the full year." > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 6. EBITDA Margin Increase Howmet's EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% in 2025 with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%. > "EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%." > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 6.0 | medium | Q4 vs Q1: healthy growth (+11.6%) | | Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q4: average margin (31.5%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.6%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.5B, 4.3× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.4%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 46.3 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (87%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +16.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 46 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +16.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +16.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 46.3 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $246 — hisse %2.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $210 — hisse %13.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -13% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $0.86 | $0.78 | BEAT | +4.1% | | Q2 FY25 | $0.91 | $0.87 | BEAT | +2.5% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.95 | $0.91 | BEAT | +2.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.05 | $0.96 | +8.8% EPS | +2.2% | Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $1.05 vs $0.96 est^[FMP], +8.8% beat. D+1 movement: +2.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.11 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.11^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $280^{[FMP target]}; high target $315^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.11 + CapEx < $124.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.11^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $124.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $240^[FMP] and median $280^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.08 or CapEx ≥ $124.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.08^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $240 below SMA200 $210^[FMP], if rejection continues, $179^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $1.05 vs $0.96 beat^[FMP], stock +2.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $124.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 26.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $280 (+16.9% upside vs current $240) - **High / Low:** $315 / $228 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 20 / 3 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 40 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. commercial_aerospace_growth **Claim:** Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. **Evidence (transcript):** "Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, with revenue up 13% in the fourth quarter and up 12% for the full year." **Numbers:** 13%, 12%, 2025 ### 2. defense_aerospace_growth **Claim:** Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds. **Evidence (transcript):** "Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter. For the full year, Defense aerospace was up 21%, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds." **Numbers:** 20%, 21%, 32%, F-35 ### 3. gas_turbine_growth **Claim:** Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter, driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter and up 25% for the full year. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers." **Numbers:** 32%, 25% ### 4. spares_revenue_growth **Claim:** Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019. **Evidence (transcript):** "Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019." **Numbers:** 21%, 17%, 11%, 11%, 2025, 2024, 2019 ### 5. EBITDA_margin_increase **Claim:** Howmet's EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% in 2025 with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%. **Evidence (transcript):** "EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%." **Numbers:** 350, 29.3%, 30.1% ### 6. engine_products_growth **Claim:** The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion, commercial aerospace was up 17%, and defense aerospace was up 18%." **Numbers:** 20%, 1.16, 17%, 18% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*