--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ice last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:30:26.886Z --- # Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:30:25.704Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $154.75 (▼ -2.11%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $87.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $143.17 – $189.35 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.96 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $193 (+24.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 64/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.96^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 64 = MoonshotScore 64^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Exchange Revenue Growth ICE's first quarter exchange net revenues reached a record $1.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year, compounding on top of 12% growth in 2025 and 11% growth in 2024. > "First quarter exchange net revenues reached a record $1.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Critically, these results compound on top of 12% growth in 2025 and 11% growth in 2024." > — Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Mortgage Technology Growth First quarter revenues totaled $539 million, up 6% year-over-year. On a pro forma basis, inclusive of Black Knight, this represents our strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2022. > "First quarter revenues totaled $539 million, up 6% year-over-year. On a pro forma basis, inclusive of Black Knight, this represents our strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2022." > — Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Fixed Income Data Services Growth In our Fixed Income and Data Services segment, we delivered another quarter of strong broad-based execution. First quarter revenues totaled a record $657 million, up 9% year-over-year. > "In our Fixed Income and Data Services segment, we delivered another quarter of strong broad-based execution. First quarter revenues totaled a record $657 million, up 9% year-over-year." > — Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Record Eps Growth ICE reported record first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.35, up 37% year-over-year. > "First quarter adjusted earnings per share were $2.35, up 37% year-over-year." > — Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Record Net Revenues ICE's net revenues reached a record $3 billion, up 18%, with meaningful contributions from all 3 of our operating segments. > "Net revenues reached a record $3 billion, up 18%." > — Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 6.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+12.4%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (81.2%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (45.4%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.1B, 6.5× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 40.1 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (94%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +24.7% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 40 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +24.7% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +24.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 40.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $160 — hisse %3.3 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $165 — hisse %6.1 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +3% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.81 | $1.77 | BEAT | -0.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.71 | $1.60 | BEAT | -1.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.71 | $1.68 | BEAT | +0.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.35 | $2.23 | +5.4% EPS | -2.1% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $2.35 vs $2.23 est^[FMP], +5.4% beat. D+1 movement: -2.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.96 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.96^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $193^{[FMP target]}; high target $211^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.96 + CapEx < $176.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.96^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $176.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $155^[FMP] and median $193^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.90 or CapEx ≥ $176.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.90^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $155 below SMA200 $165^[FMP], if rejection continues, $140^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.35 vs $2.23 beat^[FMP], stock -2.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $176.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 45.4%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $193 (+24.7% upside vs current $155) - **High / Low:** $211 / $180 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 15 / 1 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 49 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_eps_growth **Claim:** ICE reported record first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.35, up 37% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "First quarter adjusted earnings per share were $2.35, up 37% year-over-year." **Numbers:** $2.35, 37% ### 2. record_net_revenues **Claim:** ICE's net revenues reached a record $3 billion, up 18%, with meaningful contributions from all 3 of our operating segments. **Evidence (transcript):** "Net revenues reached a record $3 billion, up 18%." **Numbers:** $3 billion, 18% ### 3. exchange_revenue_growth **Claim:** ICE's first quarter exchange net revenues reached a record $1.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year, compounding on top of 12% growth in 2025 and 11% growth in 2024. **Evidence (transcript):** "First quarter exchange net revenues reached a record $1.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Critically, these results compound on top of 12% growth in 2025 and 11% growth in 2024." **Numbers:** $1.8 billion, 27%, 12%, 11% ### 4. fixed_income_data_services_growth **Claim:** In our Fixed Income and Data Services segment, we delivered another quarter of strong broad-based execution. First quarter revenues totaled a record $657 million, up 9% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "In our Fixed Income and Data Services segment, we delivered another quarter of strong broad-based execution. First quarter revenues totaled a record $657 million, up 9% year-over-year." **Numbers:** $657 million, 9% ### 5. mortgage_technology_growth **Claim:** First quarter revenues totaled $539 million, up 6% year-over-year. On a pro forma basis, inclusive of Black Knight, this represents our strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2022. **Evidence (transcript):** "First quarter revenues totaled $539 million, up 6% year-over-year. On a pro forma basis, inclusive of Black Knight, this represents our strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2022." **Numbers:** $539 million, 6%, Q4 2022 ### 6. ai_integration_mortgage_tech **Claim:** ICE Mortgage Technology accelerates regulated workflows by embedding intelligence directly into our systems of record, preserving governance and audibility. **Evidence (transcript):** "It accelerates the way regulated workflows are processed by embedding intelligence directly into our systems of record, preserving governance and audibility and while improving speed and insight." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*