--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ip last_updated: 2026-05-09T14:38:49.340Z --- # International Paper Company (IP) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T14:38:48.863Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $33.03 (▼ -0.15%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $17.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $29.45 – $56.13 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $-0.04 (-121% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $6.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $44 (+33.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 29/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## International Paper Company — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $6.2B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $-0.04^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 29 = MoonshotScore 29^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. North America Volume Outlook International Paper expects its North American volumes to be up about 3% in the second quarter and continue to expect to outperform the industry by about 2% on a full year basis. > "Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect our North American volumes to be up about 3% with the industry again tracking flat. And on a full year basis, we continue to expect to outperform the industry by about 2%." > — Andrew Silvernail, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Packaging Solutions North America Outlook International Paper has updated its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions North America to $2.35 billion to $2.5 billion due to the unfavorable impact of the macro environment, winter weather, and weaker-than-expected operating performance. > "At a high level, the full year outlook reflects unfavorable impact of the macro environment, winter weather, and weaker-than-expected operating performance with published pricing actions providing a meaningful offset." > — Lance Loeffler, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Emea Cost Savings International Paper has achieved run rate cost savings of more than $200 million in total in EMEA, increasing by roughly $40 million since last quarter. > "When we shared this slide last quarter, we had approximately $160 million of run rate cost savings. Since then, we've continued to make progress, increasing run rate savings by roughly $40 million to more than $200 million in total." > — Andrew Silvernail, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Full Year Industry Demand Outlook Due to macro trends, International Paper's full year 2026 industry demand outlook is now approximately flat year-over-year compared to prior assumptions of flat to up 1%. > "Lastly, due to macro trends, our full year 2026 industry demand outlook is now approximately flat year-over-year compared to prior assumptions of flat to up 1%." > — Andrew Silvernail, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. North America Volume Outperformance International Paper outperformed the market in North America for the third consecutive quarter, with box shipments exceeding the industry by 3%. > "In North America, we delivered above-market growth for the third straight quarter with box shipments exceeding the industry by 3% as planned customer wins came through." > — Andrew Silvernail, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-11.8%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (20.7%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (2.9%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 5.0 | medium | FCF under pressure ($0.1B FCF vs $0.5B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 44.4 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (62%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +33.2% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 44 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +33.2% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +33.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 44.4 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $36 — hisse %8.3 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $42 — hisse %21.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -47% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $0.20 | $0.39 | MISS | -0.7% | | Q3 FY25 | $-0.43 | $0.47 | MISS | +0.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $-0.08 | $0.28 | MISS | +3.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $0.15 | $0.18 | +-16.7% EPS | +4.4% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $0.15 vs $0.18 est^[FMP], +-16.7% beat. D+1 movement: +4.4%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $-0.04 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $-0.04^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $44^{[FMP target]}; high target $60^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $-0.04 + CapEx < $517.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $-0.04^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $517.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $33^[FMP] and median $44^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $-0.04 or CapEx ≥ $517.0M** Threshold: EPS < $-0.04^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $33 below SMA200 $42^[FMP], if rejection continues, $36^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $0.15 vs $0.18 beat^[FMP], stock +4.4% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $517.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 2.9%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $44 (+33.2% upside vs current $33) - **High / Low:** $60 / $39 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 8 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 5 (last quarter), 42 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. north_america_volume_outperformance **Claim:** International Paper outperformed the market in North America for the third consecutive quarter, with box shipments exceeding the industry by 3%. **Evidence (transcript):** "In North America, we delivered above-market growth for the third straight quarter with box shipments exceeding the industry by 3% as planned customer wins came through." **Numbers:** 3% ### 2. north_america_volume_outlook **Claim:** International Paper expects its North American volumes to be up about 3% in the second quarter and continue to expect to outperform the industry by about 2% on a full year basis. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect our North American volumes to be up about 3% with the industry again tracking flat. And on a full year basis, we continue to expect to outperform the industry by about 2%." **Numbers:** 3%, 2% ### 3. full_year_industry_demand_outlook **Claim:** Due to macro trends, International Paper's full year 2026 industry demand outlook is now approximately flat year-over-year compared to prior assumptions of flat to up 1%. **Evidence (transcript):** "Lastly, due to macro trends, our full year 2026 industry demand outlook is now approximately flat year-over-year compared to prior assumptions of flat to up 1%." **Numbers:** 1% ### 4. norpac_acquisition_returns **Claim:** International Paper expects the NORPAC paper mill acquisition to deliver high teens or better returns over time, consistent with its disciplined capital allocation approach. **Evidence (transcript):** "Post integration, we expect this investment to deliver high teens or better returns over time, consistent with our disciplined capital allocation approach." **Numbers:** — ### 5. emea_cost_savings **Claim:** International Paper has achieved run rate cost savings of more than $200 million in total in EMEA, increasing by roughly $40 million since last quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "When we shared this slide last quarter, we had approximately $160 million of run rate cost savings. Since then, we've continued to make progress, increasing run rate savings by roughly $40 million to more than $200 million in total." **Numbers:** 160, 40, 200 ### 6. packaging_solutions_north_america_outlook **Claim:** International Paper has updated its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions North America to $2.35 billion to $2.5 billion due to the unfavorable impact of the macro environment, winter weather, and weaker-than-expected operating performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "At a high level, the full year outlook reflects unfavorable impact of the macro environment, winter weather, and weaker-than-expected operating performance with published pricing actions providing a meaningful offset." **Numbers:** 2.35, 2.5 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*