--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/jpm last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:29:28.028Z --- # JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:29:27.046Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $312.47 (▼ -0.24%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $842.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $248.83 – $337.25 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 14 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $5.40 (+9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $48.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $332 (+6.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 43/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## JPMorgan Chase & Co. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $48.7B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $5.40^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 43 = MoonshotScore 43^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Deposit Growth Average deposits were up 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by account growth and moderating yield-seeking flows. > "Average deposits were up 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by account growth and moderating yield-seeking flows." > — Jeremy Barnum, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Total Nii Outlook We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of market NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR. > "We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of market NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR." > — Jeremy Barnum, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Nii Outlook JPMorgan Chase continues to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion for full year 2026. > "In terms of the full year 2026 outlook, we continue to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion." > — Jeremy Barnum, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Expense Outlook The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion > "The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion" > — Jeremy Barnum, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 3.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+5.4%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (64.3%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (27.8%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-211.8B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 58.0 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (52%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +6.3% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 58 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +6.3% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +6.3% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 58.0 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $300 — hisse %4.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $305 — hisse %2.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -17% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.96 | $4.48 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $5.07 | $4.85 | BEAT | +1.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.63 | $4.85 | MISS | -1.0% | | Q1 FY26 | $5.94 | $5.47 | +8.6% EPS | -1.7% | Q1 (April 14, 2026): EPS $5.94 vs $5.47 est^[FMP], +8.6% beat. D+1 movement: -1.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $5.40 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $5.40^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $332^{[FMP target]}; high target $391^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $5.40 + CapEx < $0** Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.40^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $0^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $312^[FMP] and median $332^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $5.24 or CapEx ≥ $0** Threshold: EPS < $5.24^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $312 below SMA200 $305^[FMP], if rejection continues, $259^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $5.94 vs $5.47 beat^[FMP], stock -1.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $0^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 27.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $332 (+6.3% upside vs current $312) - **High / Low:** $391 / $295 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 13 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 104 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. nii_outlook **Claim:** JPMorgan Chase continues to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion for full year 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "In terms of the full year 2026 outlook, we continue to expect NII ex Markets to be about $95 billion." **Numbers:** $95 billion, 2026 ### 2. total_nii_outlook **Claim:** We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of market NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR. **Evidence (transcript):** "We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of market NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR." **Numbers:** $103 billion, $8 billion ### 3. expense_outlook **Claim:** The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion **Evidence (transcript):** "The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion" **Numbers:** $105 billion ### 4. consumer_resilience **Claim:** Notwithstanding the recent volatility in market and gas prices based on our data, consumers and small businesses remain resilient with consumer spend growth continuing above last year's pace. **Evidence (transcript):** "Notwithstanding the recent volatility in market and gas prices based on our data, consumers and small businesses remain resilient with consumer spend growth continuing above last year's pace." **Numbers:** — ### 5. deposit_growth **Claim:** Average deposits were up 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by account growth and moderating yield-seeking flows. **Evidence (transcript):** "Average deposits were up 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven by account growth and moderating yield-seeking flows." **Numbers:** 2% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*