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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/kdp
last_updated: 2026-08-23T06:14:36.574Z
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# Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-08-23T06:14:35.617Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $32.04 (▲ 1.20%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $43.6B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $24.88 – $33.82 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Mon 26 Oct | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $0.64 (+19% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $7.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 7/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $38 (+18.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 60/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations

Q1 consensus: revenue **$7.3B**[FMP est], EPS **$0.64**[FMP est]. 7 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

## Quick Take

**Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 60

= MoonshotScore **60**[multi-pillar formula] + Council **2/6**[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

## Watchlist (4 metrics)

### 1. Us Refreshment Beverages Growth

The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment achieved double-digit net sales and operating income growth, driven by Dr Pepper Zero Sugar's nearly 30% retail sales growth and the energy drinks portfolio crossing the 9% market share threshold.

> "Segment net sales and operating income each grew at a double-digit rate in the second quarter, reflecting strength across both our core portfolio and newer growth platforms. ... Dr Pepper's Zero Sugar platform sustained its momentum, growing retail sales nearly 30% and gaining more share than any other trademark in the Zero Sugar space..."
> — Timothy Cofer, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Us Coffee Segment Challenges

The U.S. Coffee segment experienced a low single-digit decline in net sales and a 25% drop in operating income due to higher input costs and category volume declines, but expects improving trends in the back half of the year.

> "Turning first to U.S. Coffee. Second quarter performance was relatively consistent with our first quarter as net sales declined in the low single digits and operating income declined 25%. Year-over-year profit pressure was primarily driven by the impact of significantly higher input costs. ... Importantly, we continue to have line of sight to improving segment trends over the balance of the year."
> — Timothy Cofer, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Fy26 Eps Outlook Adjustments

KDP reaffirmed its 2026 EPS outlook, expecting a neutral impact from an incremental 2% noncash expense headwind due to JDE Peet's purchase price allocation and an anticipated one-time cash benefit from tariff refunds.

> "While our EPS outlook is unchanged, there are 2 new elements to highlight. First, during the second quarter, we completed the initial JDE Peet's purchase price allocation. This resulted in higher fixed asset depreciation expense for the acquired entity than we previously anticipated, and our guidance now incorporates an incremental 2% noncash expense headwind to 2026 EPS versus our prior view. Second, our outlook also now includes an anticipated onetime cash benefit from tariff refunds. On a net basis, we expect these 2 factors to largely offset, resulting in a neutral impact to our full year EPS outlook."
> — Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Jde Peets Profitability Timing

The JDE Peet's segment exceeded expectations with $2.8 billion in net sales and $414 million in operating income, benefiting from favorable pricing, productivity savings, and timing factors, though Q2 is expected to be the high watermark for quarterly earnings contribution in 2026.

> "Our JDE Peet's segment generated $2.8 billion in net sales and $414 million in operating income in the second quarter, exceeding our expectations. Segment profitability was primarily driven by favorable pricing net of cost inflation, along with robust productivity savings. The business also benefited from timing factors, including related to the recognition of derivative gains as well as some marketing phasing. ... That said, we now believe our second quarter operating profit likely represents the high watermark for JDE Peet's quarterly earnings contribution in 2026..."
> — Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+69.7%) |
| Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q2: average margin (41.9%) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (9.2%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.7B, 3.9× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 59.4 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (65%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +18.6% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 59 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +18.6% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +18.6% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Weak
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 59.4 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $31 — hisse %2.9 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $29 — hisse %11.0 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -24%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $0.54 | $0.54 | BEAT | -1.3% |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.60 | $0.59 | BEAT | -2.8% |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.39 | $0.37 | BEAT | +2.4% |
| Q2 FY26 | $0.57 | $0.54 | +6.1% EPS | -1.2% |

Q2 (August 6, 2026): EPS $0.57 vs $0.54 est[FMP], +6.1% beat. D+1 movement: -1.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q1 EPS > $0.64 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $0.64[FMP est].

Target: Break above median target $38[FMP target]; high target $42[FMP] upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $0.64 + CapEx < $181.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.64[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $181.0M[FMP].

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $32[FMP] and median $38[FMP].

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $0.62 or CapEx ≥ $181.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $0.62[FMP est×0.97].

Target: Current $32 below SMA200 $29[FMP], if rejection continues, $25[derived] support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $0.57 vs $0.54 beat[FMP], stock -1.2% D+1[FMP]. Anthony DiSilvestro Q2 transcript: "We continue to expect legacy KDP to grow 4% to 6% in constant currency, but now see the high end of the range as most likely."[Anthony DiSilvestro].

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $181.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 9.2%[FMP op margin] — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus


| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median target | $38 (+18.6% upside vs current $32) |
| High / Low | $42 / $30 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 13 / 7 / 0 |
| Analyst count | 8 (last quarter), 44 all-time |

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. fy26_guidance_reaffirmation

**Claim:** KDP exceeded Q2 expectations, primarily driven by strong performance in JDE Peet's and U.S. Refreshment Beverages segments, reaffirming its low double-digit EPS growth guidance for FY2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, our second quarter was ahead of our expectations, primarily driven by upside in our JDE Peet's and U.S. Refreshment Beverages segments, including some timing benefits that Anthony will discuss. ... On the bottom line, we are reaffirming our outlook for low double-digit constant currency EPS growth."

**Numbers:** —

### 2. jde_peets_acquisition_integration

**Claim:** KDP successfully completed the JDE Peet's acquisition in early April and made significant progress on integration and separation milestones for early 2027, with initial cost synergies flowing through in Q2.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We successfully closed the acquisition of JDE Peet's in early April and on day 1, stood up an interim operating model that is purpose-built to support both near-term delivery and separation readiness. ... We've quickly begun to capture Coffee Co. cost synergies with initial savings flowing through in the second quarter and have also commenced work to offset anticipated Beverage Co. dis-synergies."

**Numbers:** —

### 3. us_refreshment_beverages_growth

**Claim:** The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment achieved double-digit net sales and operating income growth, driven by Dr Pepper Zero Sugar's nearly 30% retail sales growth and the energy drinks portfolio crossing the 9% market share threshold.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Segment net sales and operating income each grew at a double-digit rate in the second quarter, reflecting strength across both our core portfolio and newer growth platforms. ... Dr Pepper's Zero Sugar platform sustained its momentum, growing retail sales nearly 30% and gaining more share than any other trademark in the Zero Sugar space..."

**Numbers:** 30%

### 4. us_coffee_segment_challenges

**Claim:** The U.S. Coffee segment experienced a low single-digit decline in net sales and a 25% drop in operating income due to higher input costs and category volume declines, but expects improving trends in the back half of the year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Turning first to U.S. Coffee. Second quarter performance was relatively consistent with our first quarter as net sales declined in the low single digits and operating income declined 25%. Year-over-year profit pressure was primarily driven by the impact of significantly higher input costs. ... Importantly, we continue to have line of sight to improving segment trends over the balance of the year."

**Numbers:** 25%

### 5. jde_peets_profitability_timing

**Claim:** The JDE Peet's segment exceeded expectations with $2.8 billion in net sales and $414 million in operating income, benefiting from favorable pricing, productivity savings, and timing factors, though Q2 is expected to be the high watermark for quarterly earnings contribution in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our JDE Peet's segment generated $2.8 billion in net sales and $414 million in operating income in the second quarter, exceeding our expectations. Segment profitability was primarily driven by favorable pricing net of cost inflation, along with robust productivity savings. The business also benefited from timing factors, including related to the recognition of derivative gains as well as some marketing phasing. ... That said, we now believe our second quarter operating profit likely represents the high watermark for JDE Peet's quarterly earnings contribution in 2026..."

**Numbers:** $2.8 billion, $414 million, 2026

### 6. fy26_eps_outlook_adjustments

**Claim:** KDP reaffirmed its 2026 EPS outlook, expecting a neutral impact from an incremental 2% noncash expense headwind due to JDE Peet's purchase price allocation and an anticipated one-time cash benefit from tariff refunds.

**Evidence (transcript):** "While our EPS outlook is unchanged, there are 2 new elements to highlight. First, during the second quarter, we completed the initial JDE Peet's purchase price allocation. This resulted in higher fixed asset depreciation expense for the acquired entity than we previously anticipated, and our guidance now incorporates an incremental 2% noncash expense headwind to 2026 EPS versus our prior view. Second, our outlook also now includes an anticipated onetime cash benefit from tariff refunds. On a net basis, we expect these 2 factors to largely offset, resulting in a neutral impact to our full year EPS outlook."

**Numbers:** 2%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-08-23), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*