--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/lite last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:13:15.553Z --- # Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:13:15.091Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $994.56 (▲ 1.88%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $71.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $60.38 – $1021.00 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 5 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.24 (+293% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $810.0M | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $598 (-39.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 64/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Lumentum Holdings Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $810.0M^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.24^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 64 = MoonshotScore 64^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Components Revenue Growth Components revenue for the quarter reached $444 million, representing a 17% sequential increase and 68% year-over-year growth. This performance was fueled by broad-based demand across laser chips, laser assemblies, and inline subsystems going primarily into inter-data center DCI and long-haul applications. > "Components revenue for the quarter reached $444 million, representing a 17% sequential increase and 68% year-over-year growth. This performance was fueled by broad-based demand across laser chips, laser assemblies, and inline subsystems going primarily into inter-data center DCI and long-haul applications." > — Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Record Revenue Lumentum delivered a standout second quarter with over 65% year-over-year revenue growth and non-GAAP operating margin increasing by greater than 1,700 basis points. > "Lumentum delivered a standout second quarter with over 65% year-over-year revenue growth and non-GAAP operating margin increasing by greater than 1,700 basis points." > — Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Q3 Revenue Guidance Lumentum's March revenue guidance, with an $805 million midpoint, represents an impressive 85% plus year-over-year increase. > "Our March revenue guidance, with an $805 million midpoint, represents an impressive 85% plus year-over-year increase." > — Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Cpo New Order We have secured an additional multi-$100 million purchase order for ultra-high-power lasers that support optical scale-out applications. We expect shipments for this incremental order in 2027. > "Turning to CPO, we have secured an additional multi-$100 million purchase order for ultra-high-power lasers that support optical scale-out applications. We expect shipments for this incremental order in 2027." > — Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Ocs Backlog Customer demand for OCS is intensifying. Our order backlog now has surged well past $400 million, the majority of which is slated for shipment in the second half of this calendar year. > "Customer demand for OCS is intensifying. Our order backlog now has surged well past $400 million, the majority of which is slated for shipment in the second half of this calendar year." > — Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 6. Ocs Outperformance Lumentum's OCS business is exceeding internal expectations and cleared its first $10 million quarter three months ahead of schedule. > "Our OCS business is exceeding internal expectations. While we originally targeted our first $10 million quarter for fiscal Q3, we cleared that bar three months ahead of schedule." > — Michael Hurlston, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+56.5%) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q2: average margin (36.1%) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (9.7%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.2B, 2.7× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | high R&D intensity (15.1%, aggressive) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 64.8 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (79%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -39.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 65 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -39.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -39.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 64.8 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $775 — hisse %28.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $388 — hisse %156.4 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +2% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $0.57 | $0.50 | BEAT | +2.8% | | Q4 FY25 | $0.88 | $0.81 | BEAT | +0.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.10 | $1.03 | BEAT | +23.6% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.67 | $1.41 | +18.4% EPS | +7.0% | Q2 (February 3, 2026): EPS $1.67 vs $1.41 est^[FMP], +18.4% beat. D+1 movement: +7.0%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.24 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.24^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $598^{[FMP target]}; high target $1270^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.24 + CapEx < $76.2M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.24^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $76.2M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $995^[FMP] and median $598^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.17 or CapEx ≥ $76.2M** Threshold: EPS < $2.17^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $995 below SMA200 $388^[FMP], if rejection continues, $330^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.67 vs $1.41 beat^[FMP], stock +7.0% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $76.2M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 9.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $598 (-39.9% upside vs current $995) - **High / Low:** $1270 / $380 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 19 / 5 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 66 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_revenue **Claim:** Lumentum delivered a standout second quarter with over 65% year-over-year revenue growth and non-GAAP operating margin increasing by greater than 1,700 basis points. **Evidence (transcript):** "Lumentum delivered a standout second quarter with over 65% year-over-year revenue growth and non-GAAP operating margin increasing by greater than 1,700 basis points." **Numbers:** 65%, 1,700 ### 2. q3_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Lumentum's March revenue guidance, with an $805 million midpoint, represents an impressive 85% plus year-over-year increase. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our March revenue guidance, with an $805 million midpoint, represents an impressive 85% plus year-over-year increase." **Numbers:** $805, 85% ### 3. ocs_outperformance **Claim:** Lumentum's OCS business is exceeding internal expectations and cleared its first $10 million quarter three months ahead of schedule. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our OCS business is exceeding internal expectations. While we originally targeted our first $10 million quarter for fiscal Q3, we cleared that bar three months ahead of schedule." **Numbers:** $10 ### 4. ocs_backlog **Claim:** Customer demand for OCS is intensifying. Our order backlog now has surged well past $400 million, the majority of which is slated for shipment in the second half of this calendar year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Customer demand for OCS is intensifying. Our order backlog now has surged well past $400 million, the majority of which is slated for shipment in the second half of this calendar year." **Numbers:** $400 ### 5. cpo_new_order **Claim:** We have secured an additional multi-$100 million purchase order for ultra-high-power lasers that support optical scale-out applications. We expect shipments for this incremental order in 2027. **Evidence (transcript):** "Turning to CPO, we have secured an additional multi-$100 million purchase order for ultra-high-power lasers that support optical scale-out applications. We expect shipments for this incremental order in 2027." **Numbers:** $100, 2027 ### 6. components_revenue_growth **Claim:** Components revenue for the quarter reached $444 million, representing a 17% sequential increase and 68% year-over-year growth. This performance was fueled by broad-based demand across laser chips, laser assemblies, and inline subsystems going primarily into inter-data center DCI and long-haul applications. **Evidence (transcript):** "Components revenue for the quarter reached $444 million, representing a 17% sequential increase and 68% year-over-year growth. This performance was fueled by broad-based demand across laser chips, laser assemblies, and inline subsystems going primarily into inter-data center DCI and long-haul applications." **Numbers:** $444, 17%, 68% ### 7. q3_revenue_mix **Claim:** Lumentum anticipates that approximately two-thirds of the sequential increase in revenue in Q3 will be driven by our components portfolio, reflecting broad-based strength across cloud applications. **Evidence (transcript):** "Within this outlook, we anticipate that approximately two-thirds of the sequential increase in revenue will be driven by our components portfolio, reflecting broad-based strength across cloud applications." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*