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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/lly
last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:31:06.752Z
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# Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:31:05.654Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $963.33 (▲ 3.07%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $910.2B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $623.78 – $1133.95 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 6 Aug | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $8.65 (+37% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $20.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 6/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $1280 (+32.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 70/100 | derived |
| Council | 5/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Eli Lilly and Company — Q1 FY2027 Expectations

Q1 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$20.2B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$8.65</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 6 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 70

= MoonshotScore <strong>70</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>5/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Revenue Guidance Increase

We have increased the top and the bottom end of the revenue range by $2 billion and now expect full year revenue to be between $82 million and $85 billion.

> "We have increased the top and the bottom end of the revenue range by $2 billion and now expect full year revenue to be between $82 million and $85 billion."
> — Lucas Montarce, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Mounjaro And Seman Revenue

Mounjaro and Suven global revenue was $12.8 billion combined, contributing $6.7 billion of growth compared to Q1 2025.

> "Finally, in cardiometabolic, Mounjaro and Suven global revenue was $12.8 billion combined, contributing $6.7 billion of growth compared to Q1 2025."
> — Lucas Montarce, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Immunology Oncology Neuroscience Growth

Our immunology, oncology and neuroscience medicines collectively grew by 160% compared to the same quarter last year.

> "Within key products, our immunology, oncology and neuroscience medicines collectively grew by 160% compared to the same quarter last year as we continue to invest to drive growth across all of our therapeutic areas."
> — David Ricks, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Key Products Growth

Our key products currently defined as Elis in Luria, J. Perka, Kasamla, Monjaro, Umba and [indiscernible] grew 56% revenue growth.

> "Our key products currently defined as Elis in Luria, J. Perka, Kasamla, Monjaro, Umba and [indiscernible] grew 56% revenue growth."
> — Lucas Montarce, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Foundayo Launch

While the Foundayo launch has just begun, we're encouraged by momentum against our 2026 launch priorities.

> "While the Foundayo launch has just begun, we're encouraged by momentum against our 2026 launch priorities."
> — David Ricks, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+27.3%) |
| Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (81.9%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (44.7%, scale leverage) |
| Cash Runway | 9.0 | strong | FCF strong ($3.0B FCF, covers CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | high R&D intensity (19.5%, aggressive) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 57.9 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (77%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +32.9% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 58 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +32.9% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +32.9% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 57.9 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $948 — hisse %1.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $911 — hisse %5.7 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** +18%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $6.31 | $5.60 | BEAT | -2.4% |
| Q3 FY25 | $7.02 | $5.69 | BEAT | +2.2% |
| Q4 FY25 | $7.54 | $6.91 | BEAT | -7.8% |
| Q1 FY26 | $8.55 | $6.97 | +22.7% EPS | +3.1% |

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $8.55 vs $6.97 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +22.7% beat. D+1 movement: +3.1%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q1 EPS > $8.65 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $8.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $1280<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $1350<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $8.65 + CapEx < $2.3B**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $8.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q1 CapEx < $2.3B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $963<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $1280<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $8.39 or CapEx ≥ $2.3B**

Threshold: EPS < $8.39<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $963 below SMA200 $911<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $775<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $8.55 vs $6.97 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +3.1% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $2.3B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 44.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $1280 (+32.9% upside vs current $963)
- **High / Low:** $1350 / $1070
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 24 / 6 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 14 (last quarter), 109 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. foundayo_launch

**Claim:** While the Foundayo launch has just begun, we're encouraged by momentum against our 2026 launch priorities.

**Evidence (transcript):** "While the Foundayo launch has just begun, we're encouraged by momentum against our 2026 launch priorities."

**Numbers:** 2026

### 2. key_products_growth

**Claim:** Our key products currently defined as Elis in Luria, J. Perka, Kasamla, Monjaro, Umba and [indiscernible] grew 56% revenue growth.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our key products currently defined as Elis in Luria, J. Perka, Kasamla, Monjaro, Umba and [indiscernible] grew 56% revenue growth."

**Numbers:** 56%

### 3. immunology_oncology_neuroscience_growth

**Claim:** Our immunology, oncology and neuroscience medicines collectively grew by 160% compared to the same quarter last year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Within key products, our immunology, oncology and neuroscience medicines collectively grew by 160% compared to the same quarter last year as we continue to invest to drive growth across all of our therapeutic areas."

**Numbers:** 160%

### 4. mounjaro_and_seman_revenue

**Claim:** Mounjaro and Suven global revenue was $12.8 billion combined, contributing $6.7 billion of growth compared to Q1 2025.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Finally, in cardiometabolic, Mounjaro and Suven global revenue was $12.8 billion combined, contributing $6.7 billion of growth compared to Q1 2025."

**Numbers:** $12.8, $6.7, Q1 2025

### 5. revenue_guidance_increase

**Claim:** We have increased the top and the bottom end of the revenue range by $2 billion and now expect full year revenue to be between $82 million and $85 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We have increased the top and the bottom end of the revenue range by $2 billion and now expect full year revenue to be between $82 million and $85 billion."

**Numbers:** $2, $82, $85


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*