--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/lmt last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:35:46.799Z --- # Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:35:45.613Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $512.77 (▼ -1.00%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $118.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $410.11 – $692.00 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $7.11 (-2% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $19.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $654 (+27.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 21/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Lockheed Martin Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $19.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $7.11^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 21 = MoonshotScore 21^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Pac3 Contract Lockheed Martin was awarded $7 billion in orders for PAC-3 contracts, underscoring the sustained and growing demand for our missile defense capabilities. > "MFC was awarded $7 billion in orders for PAC-3 contracts. This includes 1 award for $2.2 billion from the first quarter of 2026 and a $4.8 billion fully funded undefinitized PAC-3 contract we signed earlier this month, advancing the first of the [indiscernible] ramp production agreements we announced earlier this year." > — Evan Scott, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. F35 International Commitment Lockheed Martin secured a $700 million contract to procure long-lead materials for F-35 lots 20 and 21 for our international program partners, a further signal that Allied nations are continuing their commitment to the F-35 program as the aircraft consistently proves itself in live combat. > "At Aeronautics, we secured a $700 million contract to procure long-lead materials for F-35 lots 20 and 21 for our international program partners. A further signal that Allied nations are continuing their commitment to the F-35 program as the aircraft consistently proves itself in live combat." > — Evan Scott, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. F16 Peru Contract Lockheed Martin secured a $1.5 billion contract with the Peruvian Air Force for 12 Block 70 F-16 fighters, with an opportunity for a second squadron of an additional 12 aircraft. > "Just this past Monday, Lockheed Martin signed a $1.5 billion contract with the Peruvian Air Force for 12 Block 70 F-16 fighters with an opportunity for a second squadron of an additional 12 aircraft." > — James Taiclet, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Artemis Mission Success The Artemis 2 crew and the dedicated teams at NASA completed their historical mission with a near flawless flight and recovery using Lockheed Martin's Orion spacecraft. > "Artemis 2 crew and the dedicated teams at NASA completed their historical mission and a near flawless flight and recovery using our Orion spacecraft." > — James Taiclet, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-0.7%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (11.5%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (11.4%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.3B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.9%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 22.9 oversold, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | mixed (30% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +27.5% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | bull | quant · RSI 23 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +27.5% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +27.5% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 22.9 — oversold (RSI 22.9) — tepki alımı potansiyeli - **50d MA:** $615 — hisse %16.6 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $524 — hisse %2.2 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -30% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $7.29 | $6.52 | BEAT | +2.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $6.95 | $6.38 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $5.80 | $7.07 | MISS | +1.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $6.44 | $6.74 | +-4.5% EPS | -3.1% | Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $6.44 vs $6.74 est^[FMP], +-4.5% beat. D+1 movement: -3.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $7.11 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $7.11^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $654^{[FMP target]}; high target $700^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $7.11 + CapEx < $511.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $7.11^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $511.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $513^[FMP] and median $654^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $6.90 or CapEx ≥ $511.0M** Threshold: EPS < $6.90^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $513 below SMA200 $524^[FMP], if rejection continues, $446^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $6.44 vs $6.74 beat^[FMP], stock -3.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $511.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 11.4%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $654 (+27.5% upside vs current $513) - **High / Low:** $700 / $517 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 15 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 77 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. f16_peru_contract **Claim:** Lockheed Martin secured a $1.5 billion contract with the Peruvian Air Force for 12 Block 70 F-16 fighters, with an opportunity for a second squadron of an additional 12 aircraft. **Evidence (transcript):** "Just this past Monday, Lockheed Martin signed a $1.5 billion contract with the Peruvian Air Force for 12 Block 70 F-16 fighters with an opportunity for a second squadron of an additional 12 aircraft." **Numbers:** $1.5 billion, 12, 12 ### 2. artemis_mission_success **Claim:** The Artemis 2 crew and the dedicated teams at NASA completed their historical mission with a near flawless flight and recovery using Lockheed Martin's Orion spacecraft. **Evidence (transcript):** "Artemis 2 crew and the dedicated teams at NASA completed their historical mission and a near flawless flight and recovery using our Orion spacecraft." **Numbers:** 2 ### 3. munitions_production_increase **Claim:** Lockheed Martin announced plans to quadruple Prism production to meet accelerated demand following Prism's first use in active operations. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the weeks following Prism's first use in active operations, we announced plans to quadruple production to meet accelerated demand." **Numbers:** — ### 4. pac3_contract **Claim:** Lockheed Martin was awarded $7 billion in orders for PAC-3 contracts, underscoring the sustained and growing demand for our missile defense capabilities. **Evidence (transcript):** "MFC was awarded $7 billion in orders for PAC-3 contracts. This includes 1 award for $2.2 billion from the first quarter of 2026 and a $4.8 billion fully funded undefinitized PAC-3 contract we signed earlier this month, advancing the first of the [indiscernible] ramp production agreements we announced earlier this year." **Numbers:** $7 billion, $2.2 billion, 2026, $4.8 billion ### 5. f35_international_commitment **Claim:** Lockheed Martin secured a $700 million contract to procure long-lead materials for F-35 lots 20 and 21 for our international program partners, a further signal that Allied nations are continuing their commitment to the F-35 program as the aircraft consistently proves itself in live combat. **Evidence (transcript):** "At Aeronautics, we secured a $700 million contract to procure long-lead materials for F-35 lots 20 and 21 for our international program partners. A further signal that Allied nations are continuing their commitment to the F-35 program as the aircraft consistently proves itself in live combat." **Numbers:** $700 million, 20, 21 ### 6. rms_blackhawk_autonomy **Claim:** Lockheed Martin is far down the road in converting the Black Hawk to both pilot optional and fully autonomous operations to capitalize on its range payload and survivability in contested environments. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are also far down the road in converting the Black Hawk to both pilot optional and fully autonomous operations to capitalize on its range payload and survivability in contested environments." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*