--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/lulu last_updated: 2026-05-09T15:04:29.071Z --- # Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-04 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T15:04:28.488Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $131.18 (▼ -1.80%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $15.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $127.80 – $340.25 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 4 Jun | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.69 (-35% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $210 (+60.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Lululemon Athletica Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.69^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 50 = MoonshotScore 50^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Full Price Sales Growth Lululemon aims to return to full-price sales growth in North America, with improvements seen in Q1. > "Looking at 2026, a primary goal in the North America is returning the business to healthier levels of full-price sales after seeing a higher markdown penetration in 2025. We are already seeing better full-price sell-through in Q1 relative to Q4, and we are targeting further improvement as we move through the year, driven by increased product newness, innovation and operating discipline." > — Andre Maestrini, interim Co-CEO, President and Chief Commercial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Fy26 Revenue Guidance Lululemon expects revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4% relative to 2025. > "We expect revenue to be in the range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4% relative to 2025." > — Meghan Frank, interim Co-CEO and CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. North America Growth Strategies Lululemon is implementing strategies to unlock growth in North America, focusing on full-price business, enhancing guest experience, and increasing new style penetration. > "So let me speak to 3 of the strategies we are implementing to unlock growth in the region. First, as Meghan mentioned, we are focused on the growth of our full-price business. Second, we're enhancing the guest experience, both in-store and online. And third, we are increasing new style penetration across our assortment." > — Andre Maestrini, interim Co-CEO, President and Chief Commercial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Capex Outlook Fy26 Lululemon expects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be approximately $725 million to $745 million. > "Finally, for the full year, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $725 million to $745 million." > — Meghan Frank, interim Co-CEO and CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. China Mainland Growth Lululemon is seeing strong growth in China Mainland, with particular success in outerwear and loungewear categories. > "In China Mainland, our guests responding well to our product assortment in Q4 with outerwear and lounge being standout categories." > — Andre Maestrini, interim Co-CEO, President and Chief Commercial Officer, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025 ### 6. Tariff Impact Mitigation Lululemon is implementing initiatives to mitigate the gross impact of tariffs in 2026, expecting to offset almost all of it. > "We expect markdowns for the full year to improve modestly and tariffs to have a gross impact of 90 basis points, of which we expect to be able to offset almost all of it." > — Meghan Frank, interim Co-CEO and CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+53.6%) | | Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q4: high margin (54.9%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (22.1%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.0B, 5.2× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 31.8 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 1.0 | weak | majority sell/hold (9% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +60.1% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 32 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +60.1% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +60.1% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 31.8 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $157 — hisse %16.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $178 — hisse %26.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -35% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $2.60 | $2.58 | BEAT | -19.8% | | Q2 FY25 | $3.10 | $2.91 | BEAT | -18.6% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.59 | $2.22 | BEAT | +9.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $5.01 | $4.79 | +4.6% EPS | +3.8% | Q4 (March 17, 2026): EPS $5.01 vs $4.79 est^[FMP], +4.6% beat. D+1 movement: +3.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.69 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.69^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $210^{[FMP target]}; high target $250^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.69 + CapEx < $183.2M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.69^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $183.2M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $131^[FMP] and median $210^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.64 or CapEx ≥ $183.2M** Threshold: EPS < $1.64^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $131 below SMA200 $178^[FMP], if rejection continues, $152^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $5.01 vs $4.79 beat^[FMP], stock +3.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $183.2M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 22.1%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $210 (+60.1% upside vs current $131) - **High / Low:** $250 / $170 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 3 / 29 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 1 (last quarter), 139 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. full_price_sales_growth **Claim:** Lululemon aims to return to full-price sales growth in North America, with improvements seen in Q1. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking at 2026, a primary goal in the North America is returning the business to healthier levels of full-price sales after seeing a higher markdown penetration in 2025. We are already seeing better full-price sell-through in Q1 relative to Q4, and we are targeting further improvement as we move through the year, driven by increased product newness, innovation and operating discipline." **Numbers:** 2026, 2025, Q1, Q4 ### 2. north_america_growth_strategies **Claim:** Lululemon is implementing strategies to unlock growth in North America, focusing on full-price business, enhancing guest experience, and increasing new style penetration. **Evidence (transcript):** "So let me speak to 3 of the strategies we are implementing to unlock growth in the region. First, as Meghan mentioned, we are focused on the growth of our full-price business. Second, we're enhancing the guest experience, both in-store and online. And third, we are increasing new style penetration across our assortment." **Numbers:** 3 ### 3. china_mainland_growth **Claim:** Lululemon is seeing strong growth in China Mainland, with particular success in outerwear and loungewear categories. **Evidence (transcript):** "In China Mainland, our guests responding well to our product assortment in Q4 with outerwear and lounge being standout categories." **Numbers:** Q4 ### 4. tariff_impact_mitigation **Claim:** Lululemon is implementing initiatives to mitigate the gross impact of tariffs in 2026, expecting to offset almost all of it. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect markdowns for the full year to improve modestly and tariffs to have a gross impact of 90 basis points, of which we expect to be able to offset almost all of it." **Numbers:** 90 ### 5. fy26_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Lululemon expects revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4% relative to 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect revenue to be in the range of $11.35 billion to $11.5 billion, representing growth of 2% to 4% relative to 2025." **Numbers:** $11.35 billion, $11.5 billion, 2%, 4%, 2025 ### 6. capex_outlook_fy26 **Claim:** Lululemon expects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be approximately $725 million to $745 million. **Evidence (transcript):** "Finally, for the full year, we expect capital expenditures to be approximately $725 million to $745 million." **Numbers:** $725 million, $745 million --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*