--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/lyv last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:06:59.914Z --- # Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:06:59.401Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $163.28 (▼ -1.49%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $38.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $125.34 – $175.25 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 6 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $0.70 (+71% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $7.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $188 (+14.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $7.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $0.70^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 44 = MoonshotScore 44^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Q3 Aoi Growth Live Nation expects stronger AOI growth in Q3 2026 due to strong growth in stadiums and amphitheaters. > "So really, what's going on with timing is because we have very strong growth globally in stadiums and strong growth in amphitheaters in the U.S. Those tend to skew more towards Q3 just from a calendar standpoint." > — Joe Berchtold, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Venue Securitization Live Nation has developed an innovative vehicle to fund the venue side, allowing for more leverage using venue holdings as collateral. > "This is a great vehicle that the team developed to think about how it is we fund the venue side of the business going forward. I've talked before about how in my mind, there's a little bit of a propco/opco, 2 businesses that we have; here, and there's an opportunity with the propco to effectively have a synthetic component of the balance sheet." > — Joe Berchtold, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Ticketmaster Product Focus Live Nation is focused on making the on sale process smoother, more transparent, and driving consumer confidence at Ticketmaster. > "So I would say our continual top priority is to make that on sale smooth, more transparent and drive as much consumer confidence as we can in the process." > — Michael Rapino, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Venue Partnerships Live Nation believes it can replicate the model of partnering with stadiums globally, reducing capital intensity while securing revenue streams. > "We love that deal. And we absolutely think on a global basis, it's something we can replicate. Lots of these stadiums around the world. These are not NFL activity kind of venues, so they don't have as much activity going on. So we're a great partner to help make sure we can put some shows in there, bring some sponsorship expertise and some capital if we have to." > — Michael Rapino, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Global Artist Supply Live Nation notes there are more bands on the road on a global basis, which will fill all venue levels. > "I mean if we step back as we do in our Investor Day on supply, there are more bands on the road on a global basis. So the pie is growing. Our job is just to keep making sure we maintain our market share and grow with that expanding pie of supply." > — Michael Rapino, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Amphitheater Demand Live Nation expects a strong year in amphitheaters, with ticket sales up over double digits and strong demand. > "And as you see from the numbers in our releases, we're tracking ahead of last year on show count, on ticket sales up over double digits. So we see a strong year in amphitheaters." > — Michael Rapino, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-45.9%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q1: average margin (30.2%) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (3.8%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.0B, 6.6× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 56.6 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (83%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +14.8% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 57 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +14.8% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +14.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 56.6 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $158 — hisse %3.5 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $152 — hisse %7.2 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +17% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $0.41 | $1.03 | MISS | +3.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.73 | $1.31 | MISS | -10.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $-1.06 | $-1.02 | MISS | +3.3% | | Q1 FY26 | $-1.85 | $-0.35 | +427.2% EPS | +6.7% | Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $-1.85 vs $-0.35 est^[FMP], +0% beat. D+1 movement: +6.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $0.70 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $0.70^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $188^{[FMP target]}; high target $198^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $0.70 + CapEx < $309.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.70^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $309.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $163^[FMP] and median $188^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $0.68 or CapEx ≥ $309.0M** Threshold: EPS < $0.68^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $163 below SMA200 $152^[FMP], if rejection continues, $129^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $-1.85 vs $-0.35 beat^[FMP], stock +6.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $309.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 3.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $188 (+14.8% upside vs current $163) - **High / Low:** $198 / $155 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 20 / 3 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 42 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q3_aoi_growth **Claim:** Live Nation expects stronger AOI growth in Q3 2026 due to strong growth in stadiums and amphitheaters. **Evidence (transcript):** "So really, what's going on with timing is because we have very strong growth globally in stadiums and strong growth in amphitheaters in the U.S. Those tend to skew more towards Q3 just from a calendar standpoint." **Numbers:** Q3 ### 2. amphitheater_demand **Claim:** Live Nation expects a strong year in amphitheaters, with ticket sales up over double digits and strong demand. **Evidence (transcript):** "And as you see from the numbers in our releases, we're tracking ahead of last year on show count, on ticket sales up over double digits. So we see a strong year in amphitheaters." **Numbers:** double digits ### 3. global_artist_supply **Claim:** Live Nation notes there are more bands on the road on a global basis, which will fill all venue levels. **Evidence (transcript):** "I mean if we step back as we do in our Investor Day on supply, there are more bands on the road on a global basis. So the pie is growing. Our job is just to keep making sure we maintain our market share and grow with that expanding pie of supply." **Numbers:** — ### 4. venue_securitization **Claim:** Live Nation has developed an innovative vehicle to fund the venue side, allowing for more leverage using venue holdings as collateral. **Evidence (transcript):** "This is a great vehicle that the team developed to think about how it is we fund the venue side of the business going forward. I've talked before about how in my mind, there's a little bit of a propco/opco, 2 businesses that we have; here, and there's an opportunity with the propco to effectively have a synthetic component of the balance sheet." **Numbers:** EUR 600 million ### 5. venue_partnerships **Claim:** Live Nation believes it can replicate the model of partnering with stadiums globally, reducing capital intensity while securing revenue streams. **Evidence (transcript):** "We love that deal. And we absolutely think on a global basis, it's something we can replicate. Lots of these stadiums around the world. These are not NFL activity kind of venues, so they don't have as much activity going on. So we're a great partner to help make sure we can put some shows in there, bring some sponsorship expertise and some capital if we have to." **Numbers:** — ### 6. ticketmaster_product_focus **Claim:** Live Nation is focused on making the on sale process smoother, more transparent, and driving consumer confidence at Ticketmaster. **Evidence (transcript):** "So I would say our continual top priority is to make that on sale smooth, more transparent and drive as much consumer confidence as we can in the process." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*