--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ma last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:40:27.096Z --- # Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:40:25.821Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $495.46 (▼ -1.48%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $438.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $480.50 – $601.77 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.80 (+16% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $9.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $658 (+32.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 60/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Mastercard Incorporated — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $9.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.80^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 60 = MoonshotScore 60^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Q2 Revenue Guidance Excluding the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, revenue growth for Q2 2026 is expected to be generally in line with the first quarter. > "As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity. This includes our current estimates for the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, without which we would have expected Q2 growth to be generally in line with the first quarter on a currency-neutral basis." > — Sachin Mehra, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Ethoca Growth Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions. > "Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions." > — Michael Miebach, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Share Repurchases The company repurchased $4 billion worth of stock during the quarter and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026, given current valuation levels and its strong conviction in its long-term growth potential. > "During the quarter, we repurchased $4 billion worth of stock and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026. This quarter, we accelerated the pace of our share buybacks given current valuation levels and our strong conviction in our long-term growth potential." > — Sachin Mehra, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Agentic Ecommerce Openai We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer. > "We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer." > — Michael Miebach, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Mastercard One Credential We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments. > "We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments." > — Michael Miebach, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Cross Border Travel Impact Starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East. > "As one would expect, starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East." > — Sachin Mehra, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.3%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (75.7%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 6.0 | medium | op margin very strong (58.4%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.8B, 18.5× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.1 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (92%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +32.7% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +32.7% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +32.7% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 43.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $507 — hisse %2.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $548 — hisse %9.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +25% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.15 | $4.03 | BEAT | -1.2% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.38 | $4.32 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.76 | $4.24 | BEAT | -0.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.60 | $4.41 | +4.3% EPS | -1.5% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 est^[FMP], +4.3% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.80 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.80^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $658^{[FMP target]}; high target $739^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.80 + CapEx < $154.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.80^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $154.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $495^[FMP] and median $658^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.66 or CapEx ≥ $154.0M** Threshold: EPS < $4.66^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $495 below SMA200 $548^[FMP], if rejection continues, $466^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 beat^[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1^[FMP]. Sachin Mehra Q1 transcript: "As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity."^{[Sachin Mehra]}. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $154.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 58.4%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $658 (+32.7% upside vs current $495) - **High / Low:** $739 / $590 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 36 / 3 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 110 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q2_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Excluding the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, revenue growth for Q2 2026 is expected to be generally in line with the first quarter. **Evidence (transcript):** "As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity. This includes our current estimates for the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, without which we would have expected Q2 growth to be generally in line with the first quarter on a currency-neutral basis." **Numbers:** 2026, Q2 ### 2. share_repurchases **Claim:** The company repurchased $4 billion worth of stock during the quarter and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026, given current valuation levels and its strong conviction in its long-term growth potential. **Evidence (transcript):** "During the quarter, we repurchased $4 billion worth of stock and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026. This quarter, we accelerated the pace of our share buybacks given current valuation levels and our strong conviction in our long-term growth potential." **Numbers:** $4 billion, $1.7 billion, 27, 2026 ### 3. cross_border_travel_impact **Claim:** Starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East. **Evidence (transcript):** "As one would expect, starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East." **Numbers:** — ### 4. ethoca_growth **Claim:** Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions. **Evidence (transcript):** "Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions." **Numbers:** 25 ### 5. agentic_ecommerce_openai **Claim:** We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer. **Evidence (transcript):** "We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer." **Numbers:** — ### 6. mastercard_one_credential **Claim:** We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments. **Evidence (transcript):** "We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*