Marriott International, Inc.
MAR - NASDAQ - $354.97 ▼ -%1.86
-
Earnings Wed 6 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Marriott opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

10 analysts' median target is $371[FMP target], stock is $355, +4.4% upside potential. After Q4 +-0.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 44

C+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $6.6B[FMP est], EPS $2.60[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.60 EPS Estimate Last year $2.58 - +12% YoY YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q4 EPS +-0.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Kathleen Kelly Oberg promised $172.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Kathleen Kelly Oberg capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

8% Expectation / Guide

Adjusted Ebitda Growth Guidance

adjusted_ebitda_growth_guidance

Marriott International, Inc. expects full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 8% to 10%, to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion.

"Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 8% to 10%, to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion."

- Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
1.5% Expectation / Guide

Revpar Growth Guidance 2026

revpar_growth_guidance_2026

Marriott International, Inc. expects similar global RevPAR growth to 2025 between 1.5% to 2.5% for full year 2026.

"For full year 2026, we expect similar global RevPAR growth to 2025 between 1.5% to 2.5%."

- Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
4.5% Investor Focus

Net Rooms Growth Acceleration

net_rooms_growth_acceleration

Marriott International, Inc. expects net rooms growth to accelerate to 4.5% to 5% in 2026.

"For the full year 2026, net rooms growth is expected to accelerate up to 4.5% to 5%."

- Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
$4.3 billion Expectation / Guide

Capital Returns Guidance

capital_returns_guidance

Marriott International, Inc. expects another year of strong capital returns of over $4.3 billion in 2026.

"In 2026, we expect another year of strong capital returns of over $4.3 billion."

- Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
35% Investor Focus

Credit Card Fee Increase

credit_card_fee_increase

Marriott International, Inc. expects a meaningful year-over-year increase of around 35% in co-branded credit card fees going into our franchise fees line.

"However, our guidance does include a meaningful expected year-over-year increase of around 35% in co-branded credit card fees going into our franchise fees line."

- Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026
40% Investor Focus

Residential Branding Fees Increase

residential_branding_fees_increase

Marriott International, Inc. expects residential branding fees could increase around 40% in 2026.

"Moving on to full year residential branding fees. These fees could increase around 40% in 2026."

- Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 10, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth3.0Q4 vs Q1: moderate growth (+6.8%)
Gross Margin2.0Q4: low margin (16.5%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (11.6%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.7B, 3.8x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 50.9 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment5.0mixed (46% buy)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +4.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 51
Klarman value - target upside +4.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +4.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
50.9 RSI 50.9 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+3.80 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$342 stock 3.8% above - short-term support
200d MA
$302 stock 17.7% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-25% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$371
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$355
Pre-earnings position
Support
$256
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$256-$371 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Marriott's last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$2.32 vs $2.25 est - +1.6%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.65 vs $2.61 est - +1.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.47 vs $2.38 est - +4.0%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$2.58 vs $2.60 est - -0.2%

Q4 (February 10, 2026): EPS $2.58 vs $2.60 est[FMP], +-0.8% beat. D+1 movement: -0.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.52 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $2.58 vs $2.60 beat[FMP], stock -0.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $172.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 11.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.60 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.60[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $371[FMP target]; high target $400[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.60 + CapEx < $172.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.60[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $172.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $355[FMP] and median $371[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.52 or CapEx >= $172.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.52[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $355 below SMA200 $302[FMP], if rejection continues, $256[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 10 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$371
12-month median target price (+4.4% upside potential)
12
BUY
12
HOLD
2
SELL
Risk Management
$256
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$342 - 50-day MA (above, +3.8%)
$302 - 200-day MA (above, +17.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MAR Q4 FY26
C+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.60[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $172.0M"[Kathleen Kelly Oberg]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days MAR dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 6, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the MAR earnings preview cover?

This MAR (MAR) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in MAR earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.