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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mar
last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:10:59.590Z
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# Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-06 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:10:58.564Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $354.97 (▼ -1.86%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $94.1B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $246.50 – $380.00 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 6 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $2.60 (+12% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $6.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $371 (+4.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Marriott International, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$6.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$2.60</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 0 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** C+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 44

= MoonshotScore <strong>44</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Adjusted Ebitda Growth Guidance

Marriott International, Inc. expects full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 8% to 10%, to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion.

> "Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 8% to 10%, to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion."
> — Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. Revpar Growth Guidance 2026

Marriott International, Inc. expects similar global RevPAR growth to 2025 between 1.5% to 2.5% for full year 2026.

> "For full year 2026, we expect similar global RevPAR growth to 2025 between 1.5% to 2.5%."
> — Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Net Rooms Growth Acceleration

Marriott International, Inc. expects net rooms growth to accelerate to 4.5% to 5% in 2026.

> "For the full year 2026, net rooms growth is expected to accelerate up to 4.5% to 5%."
> — Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Capital Returns Guidance

Marriott International, Inc. expects another year of strong capital returns of over $4.3 billion in 2026.

> "In 2026, we expect another year of strong capital returns of over $4.3 billion."
> — Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Credit Card Fee Increase

Marriott International, Inc. expects a meaningful year-over-year increase of around 35% in co-branded credit card fees going into our franchise fees line.

> "However, our guidance does include a meaningful expected year-over-year increase of around 35% in co-branded credit card fees going into our franchise fees line."
> — Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 6. Residential Branding Fees Increase

Marriott International, Inc. expects residential branding fees could increase around 40% in 2026.

> "Moving on to full year residential branding fees. These fees could increase around 40% in 2026."
> — Kathleen Kelly Oberg, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: moderate growth (+6.8%) |
| Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q4: low margin (16.5%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (11.6%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.7B, 3.8× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 50.9 balanced, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | mixed (46% buy) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +4.4% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 51 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +4.4% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +4.4% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Weak
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 50.9 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $342 — hisse %3.8 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $302 — hisse %17.7 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -25%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $2.32 | $2.25 | BEAT | +1.6% |
| Q2 FY25 | $2.65 | $2.61 | BEAT | +1.2% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.47 | $2.38 | BEAT | +4.0% |
| Q4 FY25 | $2.58 | $2.60 | +-0.8% EPS | -0.2% |

Q4 (February 10, 2026): EPS $2.58 vs $2.60 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +-0.8% beat. D+1 movement: -0.2%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $2.60 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $2.60<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $371<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $400<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $2.60 + CapEx < $172.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.60<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $172.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $355<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $371<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $2.52 or CapEx ≥ $172.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $2.52<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $355 below SMA200 $302<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $256<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $2.58 vs $2.60 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -0.2% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $172.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 11.6%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $371 (+4.4% upside vs current $355)
- **High / Low:** $400 / $343
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 12 / 12 / 2
- **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 57 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. net_rooms_growth_acceleration

**Claim:** Marriott International, Inc. expects net rooms growth to accelerate to 4.5% to 5% in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For the full year 2026, net rooms growth is expected to accelerate up to 4.5% to 5%."

**Numbers:** 4.5%, 5%

### 2. revpar_growth_guidance_2026

**Claim:** Marriott International, Inc. expects similar global RevPAR growth to 2025 between 1.5% to 2.5% for full year 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For full year 2026, we expect similar global RevPAR growth to 2025 between 1.5% to 2.5%."

**Numbers:** 1.5%, 2.5%

### 3. credit_card_fee_increase

**Claim:** Marriott International, Inc. expects a meaningful year-over-year increase of around 35% in co-branded credit card fees going into our franchise fees line.

**Evidence (transcript):** "However, our guidance does include a meaningful expected year-over-year increase of around 35% in co-branded credit card fees going into our franchise fees line."

**Numbers:** 35%

### 4. residential_branding_fees_increase

**Claim:** Marriott International, Inc. expects residential branding fees could increase around 40% in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Moving on to full year residential branding fees. These fees could increase around 40% in 2026."

**Numbers:** 40%

### 5. adjusted_ebitda_growth_guidance

**Claim:** Marriott International, Inc. expects full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 8% to 10%, to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 8% to 10%, to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion."

**Numbers:** 8%, 10%, $5.8 billion, $5.9 billion

### 6. capital_returns_guidance

**Claim:** Marriott International, Inc. expects another year of strong capital returns of over $4.3 billion in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In 2026, we expect another year of strong capital returns of over $4.3 billion."

**Numbers:** $4.3 billion


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*