--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mcd last_updated: 2026-07-28T06:12:07.797Z --- # McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-07-28T06:12:06.999Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $286.64 (▼ -2.37%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $203.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $283.47 – $341.75 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.75 (+3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $6.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $355 (+23.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 60/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## McDonald's Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $6.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.75^{[FMP est]}. 1 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 60 = MoonshotScore 60^{[multi-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Operating Margin Outlook McDonald's expects its operating margin to be in the mid- to high 40% range in 2026 and to expand from its 46.9% adjusted operating margin in 2025. > "We expect our operating margin to be in the mid- to high 40% range and to expand from our 46.9% adjusted operating margin in 2025." > — Ian Borden, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Capex Increase For Growth McDonald's expects its capital expenditure spend to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026, with the majority invested in new unit openings and investments in technology, digital and GBS. > "We expect our capital expenditure spend to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion this year, with the majority invested in new unit openings across our U.S. and IOM segments." > — Ian Borden, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. System Wide Sales Growth McDonald's delivered system-wide sales of nearly $140 billion in 2025, up 5.5% in constant currency. > "In 2025, McDonald's delivered system-wide sales of nearly $140 billion, up 5.5% in constant currency for the full year." > — Christopher Kempczinski, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Loyalty Program Growth McDonald's loyalty program reached nearly 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets, almost doubling sales in 2025 and driving a significant increase in system-wide sales. > "In 2025, we almost doubled those sales with nearly 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets." > — Christopher Kempczinski, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Us Comp Sales Growth In the U.S., comp sales for the quarter were up 6.8%, which was above expectations and was driven by positive check and guest count growth. > "In the U.S., comp sales for the quarter were up 6.8%, which was above our expectations and was driven by positive check and guest count growth." > — Ian Borden, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 6. New Restaurant Openings McDonald's is targeting approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, keeping them on track to achieve 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027. > "Our pace of new store openings will accelerate further as we target approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, which keeps us on track to achieve 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027." > — Christopher Kempczinski, CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 9.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+17.7%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q4: high margin (57.5%) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (45.0%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF strong ($1.6B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 31.7 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (53%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +23.8% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 32 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +23.8% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +23.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 31.7 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $314 — hisse %8.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $309 — hisse %7.4 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +6% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $2.67 | $2.66 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q2 FY25 | $3.19 | $3.14 | BEAT | +0.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.22 | $3.33 | MISS | -2.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.12 | $3.05 | +2.3% EPS | +2.7% | Q4 (February 11, 2026): EPS $3.12 vs $3.05 est^[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +2.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.75 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.75^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $355^{[FMP target]}; high target $385^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.75 + CapEx < $1.1B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.75^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.1B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $287^[FMP] and median $355^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.67 or CapEx ≥ $1.1B** Threshold: EPS < $2.67^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $287 below SMA200 $309^[FMP], if rejection continues, $263^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q4: EPS $3.12 vs $3.05 beat^[FMP], stock +2.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25 ### CapEx shock Q4 CapEx $1.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q4 op margin 45.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $355 (+23.8% upside vs current $287) - **High / Low:** $385 / $306 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 19 / 16 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 15 (last quarter), 135 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. system_wide_sales_growth **Claim:** McDonald's delivered system-wide sales of nearly $140 billion in 2025, up 5.5% in constant currency. **Evidence (transcript):** "In 2025, McDonald's delivered system-wide sales of nearly $140 billion, up 5.5% in constant currency for the full year." **Numbers:** $140 billion, 5.5% ### 2. new_restaurant_openings **Claim:** McDonald's is targeting approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, keeping them on track to achieve 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our pace of new store openings will accelerate further as we target approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, which keeps us on track to achieve 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027." **Numbers:** 2,600, 50,000, 2027 ### 3. us_comp_sales_growth **Claim:** In the U.S., comp sales for the quarter were up 6.8%, which was above expectations and was driven by positive check and guest count growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the U.S., comp sales for the quarter were up 6.8%, which was above our expectations and was driven by positive check and guest count growth." **Numbers:** 6.8% ### 4. loyalty_program_growth **Claim:** McDonald's loyalty program reached nearly 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets, almost doubling sales in 2025 and driving a significant increase in system-wide sales. **Evidence (transcript):** "In 2025, we almost doubled those sales with nearly 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets." **Numbers:** 210 million, 70 ### 5. operating_margin_outlook **Claim:** McDonald's expects its operating margin to be in the mid- to high 40% range in 2026 and to expand from its 46.9% adjusted operating margin in 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect our operating margin to be in the mid- to high 40% range and to expand from our 46.9% adjusted operating margin in 2025." **Numbers:** 40%, 46.9%, 2025 ### 6. capex_increase_for_growth **Claim:** McDonald's expects its capital expenditure spend to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026, with the majority invested in new unit openings and investments in technology, digital and GBS. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect our capital expenditure spend to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion this year, with the majority invested in new unit openings across our U.S. and IOM segments." **Numbers:** $3.7 billion, $3.9 billion --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-07-28), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*