--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mck last_updated: 2026-05-04T09:59:37.475Z --- # McKesson Corporation (MCK) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T09:59:36.426Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $814.02 (▼ -0.14%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $99.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $637.00 – $999.00 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $11.56 (+14% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $101.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $985 (+21.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## McKesson Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $101.3B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $11.56^{[FMP est]}. 4 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 47 = MoonshotScore 47^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Prescription Technology Solutions Growth In the Prescription Technology Solutions segment, revenues increased 9% to $1.4 billion, and operating profit rose 20% to $261 million. > "In the Prescription Technology Solutions segment, revenues increased 9% to $1.4 billion, driven by increased prescription volumes across our third-party logistics and technology services businesses. Operating profit rose 20% to $261 million, reflecting increased demand for access solutions, including prior authorization services for GLP-1 medications." > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Glp 1 Medication Revenue Revenues from GLP-1 medications were $13.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of approximately $2.6 billion or 24% when compared to the prior year. > "Revenues from GLP-1 medications were $13.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of approximately $2.6 billion or 24% when compared to the prior year." > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Oncology Multispecialty Growth In the Oncology and Multispecialty segment, revenues increased 32% to $12 billion, driven by strong provider and specialty distribution growth. > "In the Oncology and Multispecialty segment, revenues increased 32% to $12 billion, driven by strong provider and specialty distribution growth, including contributions from acquisitions completed in the first quarter of fiscal 2026." > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Fy26 Eps Guidance Increase McKesson is raising its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share guidance to $38.35 to $38.85, building on strong Q2 performance and confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year. > "Given our first half performance and our confidence in the outlook for the year, we are raising our guidance on adjusted earnings per diluted share to $38.35 to $38.85." > — Brian Tyler, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Medical Surgical Solutions Outlook McKesson anticipates revenue and operating profit in the Medical-Surgical Solutions segment to be at the low end of the 2% to 6% growth range due to lower illness season product volumes. > "Due to lower-than-anticipated illness season product volumes compared to the prior year, including vaccines and testing and lower volumes across ambulatory and extended care settings, we anticipate revenue and operating profit at the low end of 2% to 6% growth." > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 8.0 | strong | Q3 vs Q4: fast growth (+16.9%) | | Gross Margin | 0.0 | weak | Q3: low margin (3.5%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (1.5%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.1B, 10.4× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 29.4 oversold, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (82%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +21.0% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | bull | quant · RSI 29 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +21.0% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +21.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 29.4 — oversold (RSI 29.4) — tepki alımı potansiyeli - **50d MA:** $894 — hisse %8.9 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $813 — hisse %0.2 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -28% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $10.12 | $9.83 | BEAT | +0.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $8.26 | $8.14 | BEAT | -5.8% | | Q2 FY26 | $9.86 | $9.03 | BEAT | +1.7% | | Q3 FY26 | $9.34 | $9.17 | +1.9% EPS | +16.5% | Q2 (November 5, 2025): EPS $9.34 vs $9.17 est^[FMP], +1.9% beat. D+1 movement: +16.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $11.56 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $11.56^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $985^{[FMP target]}; high target $1085^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $11.56 + CapEx < $108.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $11.56^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $108.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $814^[FMP] and median $985^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $11.21 or CapEx ≥ $108.0M** Threshold: EPS < $11.21^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $814 below SMA200 $813^[FMP], if rejection continues, $691^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $9.34 vs $9.17 beat^[FMP], stock +16.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $108.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 1.5%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $985 (+21.0% upside vs current $814) - **High / Low:** $1085 / $966 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 3 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 37 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fy26_eps_guidance_increase **Claim:** McKesson is raising its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share guidance to $38.35 to $38.85, building on strong Q2 performance and confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given our first half performance and our confidence in the outlook for the year, we are raising our guidance on adjusted earnings per diluted share to $38.35 to $38.85." **Numbers:** $38.35, $38.85 ### 2. oncology_multispecialty_growth **Claim:** In the Oncology and Multispecialty segment, revenues increased 32% to $12 billion, driven by strong provider and specialty distribution growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the Oncology and Multispecialty segment, revenues increased 32% to $12 billion, driven by strong provider and specialty distribution growth, including contributions from acquisitions completed in the first quarter of fiscal 2026." **Numbers:** 32%, $12 ### 3. prescription_technology_solutions_growth **Claim:** In the Prescription Technology Solutions segment, revenues increased 9% to $1.4 billion, and operating profit rose 20% to $261 million. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the Prescription Technology Solutions segment, revenues increased 9% to $1.4 billion, driven by increased prescription volumes across our third-party logistics and technology services businesses. Operating profit rose 20% to $261 million, reflecting increased demand for access solutions, including prior authorization services for GLP-1 medications." **Numbers:** 9%, $1.4, 20%, $261 ### 4. medical_surgical_solutions_outlook **Claim:** McKesson anticipates revenue and operating profit in the Medical-Surgical Solutions segment to be at the low end of the 2% to 6% growth range due to lower illness season product volumes. **Evidence (transcript):** "Due to lower-than-anticipated illness season product volumes compared to the prior year, including vaccines and testing and lower volumes across ambulatory and extended care settings, we anticipate revenue and operating profit at the low end of 2% to 6% growth." **Numbers:** 2%, 6% ### 5. glp_1_medication_revenue **Claim:** Revenues from GLP-1 medications were $13.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of approximately $2.6 billion or 24% when compared to the prior year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Revenues from GLP-1 medications were $13.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of approximately $2.6 billion or 24% when compared to the prior year." **Numbers:** $13.2, $2.6, 24% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*