13 analysts' median target is $538[FMP target], stock is $456, +17.9% upside potential. After Q1 +2.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.1%.
B = MoonshotScore 61[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $2.1B[FMP est], EPS $4.19[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +2.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Noemie Heuland promised $95.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Noemie Heuland capex transcript].
Watchlist
Private Credit Growth
private_credit_growth
As private market scale and come under greater scrutiny, demand for our independent credit assessment continues to increase, and that dynamic contributed to private credit related revenue in Ratings growing more than 80% year-over-year.
"Private credit activity remained durable this quarter despite increasing credit concerns. As private market scale and come under greater scrutiny, demand for our independent credit assessment continues to increase, and that dynamic contributed to private credit related revenue in Ratings growing more than 80% year-over-year."
- Robert Fauber, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
Lending Suite Growth
lending_suite_growth
Our AI-enabled lending suite continues to gain traction as banks modernize end-to-end credit workflows, and ARR for our lending suite grew 18% year-over-year.
"And our AI-enabled lending suite continues to gain traction as banks modernize end-to-end credit workflows. ARR for our lending suite grew 18% year-over-year, was driven by customers upgrading to an integrated platform that spans origination, decisioning and monitoring."
- Robert Fauber, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
Recurring Revenue Shift
recurring_revenue_shift
Recurring revenue at Moody's Analytics (MA) represented 98% of total MA revenue, underscoring a shift towards renewable subscription-based solutions.
"Recurring revenue grew 11% as reported or 7% on an organic constant currency basis and represented 98% of total MA revenue underscoring the shift towards renewable subscription-based solutions."
- Noemie Heuland - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
Ma Revenue Growth
ma_revenue_growth
Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue increased by 8%, supported by the strength of recurring revenues.
"MA revenue increased 8% in the first quarter as reported or 6% on an organic constant currency basis, reflecting healthy underlying demand across our core franchises."
- Noemie Heuland - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
Investment Grade Growth
investment_grade_growth
Investment grade issuance increased significantly, driven by a record first quarter in corporate finance, particularly from hyperscalers and other technology issuers.
"Investment grade was the largest contributor with revenue up 33% year-over-year. Investment grade revenue within Corporate Finance was driven by a record first quarter and the second highest quarter ever for issuance, including several jumbo transactions from hyperscalers and other technology issuers."
- Noemie Heuland - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $4.33 vs $4.22 est[FMP], +2.6% beat. D+1 movement: -3.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $4.33 vs $4.22 beat[FMP], stock -3.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $95.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 44.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.19[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $95.0M"[Noemie Heuland]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This MCO (MCO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.