--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mco last_updated: 2026-05-05T19:39:27.304Z --- # Moody's Corporation (MCO) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T19:39:26.935Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $455.91 (▲ 1.41%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $79.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $402.28 – $546.88 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 22 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.19 (+18% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $538 (+17.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 61/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Moody's Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $2.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.19^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 61 = MoonshotScore 61^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Private Credit Growth As private market scale and come under greater scrutiny, demand for our independent credit assessment continues to increase, and that dynamic contributed to private credit related revenue in Ratings growing more than 80% year-over-year. > "Private credit activity remained durable this quarter despite increasing credit concerns. As private market scale and come under greater scrutiny, demand for our independent credit assessment continues to increase, and that dynamic contributed to private credit related revenue in Ratings growing more than 80% year-over-year." > — Robert Fauber, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Lending Suite Growth Our AI-enabled lending suite continues to gain traction as banks modernize end-to-end credit workflows, and ARR for our lending suite grew 18% year-over-year. > "And our AI-enabled lending suite continues to gain traction as banks modernize end-to-end credit workflows. ARR for our lending suite grew 18% year-over-year, was driven by customers upgrading to an integrated platform that spans origination, decisioning and monitoring." > — Robert Fauber, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Recurring Revenue Shift Recurring revenue at Moody's Analytics (MA) represented 98% of total MA revenue, underscoring a shift towards renewable subscription-based solutions. > "Recurring revenue grew 11% as reported or 7% on an organic constant currency basis and represented 98% of total MA revenue underscoring the shift towards renewable subscription-based solutions." > — Noemie Heuland, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Ma Revenue Growth Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue increased by 8%, supported by the strength of recurring revenues. > "MA revenue increased 8% in the first quarter as reported or 6% on an organic constant currency basis, reflecting healthy underlying demand across our core franchises." > — Noemie Heuland, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Investment Grade Growth Investment grade issuance increased significantly, driven by a record first quarter in corporate finance, particularly from hyperscalers and other technology issuers. > "Investment grade was the largest contributor with revenue up 33% year-over-year. Investment grade revenue within Corporate Finance was driven by a record first quarter and the second highest quarter ever for issuance, including several jumbo transactions from hyperscalers and other technology issuers." > — Noemie Heuland, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 5.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+9.5%) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (74.5%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (44.3%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.8B, 8.9× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 52.9 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (70%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +17.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 53 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +17.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +17.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 52.9 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $449 — hisse %1.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $483 — hisse %5.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -91% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $3.56 | $3.39 | BEAT | +1.0% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.92 | $3.70 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.64 | $3.43 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.33 | $4.22 | +2.6% EPS | -3.1% | Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $4.33 vs $4.22 est^[FMP], +2.6% beat. D+1 movement: -3.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.19 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $4.19^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $538^{[FMP target]}; high target $610^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.19 + CapEx < $95.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.19^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $95.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $456^[FMP] and median $538^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.06 or CapEx ≥ $95.0M** Threshold: EPS < $4.06^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $456 below SMA200 $483^[FMP], if rejection continues, $411^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.33 vs $4.22 beat^[FMP], stock -3.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $95.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 44.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $538 (+17.9% upside vs current $456) - **High / Low:** $610 / $489 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 16 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 13 (last quarter), 84 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. ma_revenue_growth **Claim:** Moody's Analytics (MA) revenue increased by 8%, supported by the strength of recurring revenues. **Evidence (transcript):** "MA revenue increased 8% in the first quarter as reported or 6% on an organic constant currency basis, reflecting healthy underlying demand across our core franchises." **Numbers:** 8%, 6% ### 2. recurring_revenue_shift **Claim:** Recurring revenue at Moody's Analytics (MA) represented 98% of total MA revenue, underscoring a shift towards renewable subscription-based solutions. **Evidence (transcript):** "Recurring revenue grew 11% as reported or 7% on an organic constant currency basis and represented 98% of total MA revenue underscoring the shift towards renewable subscription-based solutions." **Numbers:** 11%, 7%, 98% ### 3. investment_grade_growth **Claim:** Investment grade issuance increased significantly, driven by a record first quarter in corporate finance, particularly from hyperscalers and other technology issuers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Investment grade was the largest contributor with revenue up 33% year-over-year. Investment grade revenue within Corporate Finance was driven by a record first quarter and the second highest quarter ever for issuance, including several jumbo transactions from hyperscalers and other technology issuers." **Numbers:** 33% ### 4. private_credit_growth **Claim:** As private market scale and come under greater scrutiny, demand for our independent credit assessment continues to increase, and that dynamic contributed to private credit related revenue in Ratings growing more than 80% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Private credit activity remained durable this quarter despite increasing credit concerns. As private market scale and come under greater scrutiny, demand for our independent credit assessment continues to increase, and that dynamic contributed to private credit related revenue in Ratings growing more than 80% year-over-year." **Numbers:** 80% ### 5. lending_suite_growth **Claim:** Our AI-enabled lending suite continues to gain traction as banks modernize end-to-end credit workflows, and ARR for our lending suite grew 18% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "And our AI-enabled lending suite continues to gain traction as banks modernize end-to-end credit workflows. ARR for our lending suite grew 18% year-over-year, was driven by customers upgrading to an integrated platform that spans origination, decisioning and monitoring." **Numbers:** 18% --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*