--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mdt last_updated: 2026-05-04T09:57:56.407Z --- # Medtronic plc (MDT) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-03 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T09:57:55.215Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $80.00 (▼ -1.20%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $102.7B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $78.91 – $106.33 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 3 Jun | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.58 (-2% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $9.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $112 (+39.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 51/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Medtronic plc — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $9.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.58^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 51 = MoonshotScore 51^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Revenue Guidance Medtronic is raising its fiscal 2026 revenue growth expectation to approximately 5.5%, based on its outperformance in the first half of the year and confidence in revenue growth acceleration. > "Given our outperformance in the first half of the year, as well as the confidence we have in our revenue growth acceleration, we're raising our full-year revenue guidance today. Year to date, we've delivered 5.2% organic growth, and we expect this to further accelerate in the back half of the year. As a result, now expect fiscal 2026 revenue growth of approximately 5.5%." > — Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Pfa Growth Medtronic's PFA franchise is generating significant momentum, growing 71% and achieving the highest growth rate in the space. > "In cardiac ablation, our PFA franchise is generating just a ton of momentum. We grew 71%, which is a strong acceleration from last quarter's nearly 50% CAS growth. This is the highest growth rate of any company in this large and fast-growing space." > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Cardiovascular Growth Medtronic's cardiovascular portfolio grew 9%, marking its strongest growth in over a decade, driven by momentum in CAS. > "So I'll start with our cardiovascular portfolio, where we grew 9%. This was our strongest growth over a decade, excluding the easy comparisons we had after the pandemic. The growth acceleration was driven by our building momentum in CAS, which Geoff walked you through." > — Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Afera Durability Physicians appreciate the shorter procedure times and outstanding durability of Afera systems, driving demand for additional systems. > "Physicians tell us that they appreciate not only the shorter procedure times that they're seeing with Afera, but increasingly, they're calling out its outstanding durability as well. And demand continues to be extremely high as we hear repeatedly from customers that they want to purchase additional affair systems to expand into even more of their labs." > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Simplicity Medicare Ncd The final Medicare NCD for the Simplicity procedure for hypertension has been received, presenting a significant opportunity by enabling broad access and removing patient pathway barriers. > "And we're excited to have received the final Medicare NCD for simplicity three weeks ago. So now in addition to a broad label from the FDA, we have an excellent coverage outcome from CMS. The final NCD enables broad access and removes certain patient pathway barriers that were in the original proposal, including reducing in-person visits, removing a kidney function exclusion, and cutting in half the time requirement for adherence to meds." > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 6. Altaviva Launch Positive signs are emerging in the first weeks of the Altaviva US launch, with high demand for physician training programs and a surge in consumer search activity. > "We're seeing very positive signs in the first several weeks of The US launch. Physician training programs are oversubscribed. And we're expanding training capacity to meet this demand. Physicians are stacking cases and early media coverage has driven a surge in consumer search activity." > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q3 vs Q4: growth slowing (+1.0%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q3: high margin (64.9%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (19.7%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($2.3B, 5.2× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (8.1%) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 32.1 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 6.0 | medium | majority buy (62%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +39.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 32 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +39.4% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +39.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 32.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $88 — hisse %9.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $94 — hisse %15.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -14% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $1.62 | $1.58 | BEAT | -4.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.26 | $1.23 | BEAT | +3.7% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.36 | $1.31 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q3 FY26 | $1.36 | $1.34 | +1.5% EPS | +2.2% | Q2 (November 18, 2025): EPS $1.36 vs $1.34 est^[FMP], +1.5% beat. D+1 movement: +2.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.58 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.58^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $112^{[FMP target]}; high target $120^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.58 + CapEx < $444.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.58^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $444.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $80^[FMP] and median $112^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.53 or CapEx ≥ $444.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.53^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $80^[derived] below SMA200 $94^[FMP], if rejection continues, $80 support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.36 vs $1.34 beat^[FMP], stock +2.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $444.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 19.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $112 (+39.4% upside vs current $80) - **High / Low:** $120 / $95 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 18 / 11 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 10 (last quarter), 84 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. pfa_growth **Claim:** Medtronic's PFA franchise is generating significant momentum, growing 71% and achieving the highest growth rate in the space. **Evidence (transcript):** "In cardiac ablation, our PFA franchise is generating just a ton of momentum. We grew 71%, which is a strong acceleration from last quarter's nearly 50% CAS growth. This is the highest growth rate of any company in this large and fast-growing space." **Numbers:** 71%, 50% ### 2. afera_durability **Claim:** Physicians appreciate the shorter procedure times and outstanding durability of Afera systems, driving demand for additional systems. **Evidence (transcript):** "Physicians tell us that they appreciate not only the shorter procedure times that they're seeing with Afera, but increasingly, they're calling out its outstanding durability as well. And demand continues to be extremely high as we hear repeatedly from customers that they want to purchase additional affair systems to expand into even more of their labs." **Numbers:** — ### 3. simplicity_medicare_ncd **Claim:** The final Medicare NCD for the Simplicity procedure for hypertension has been received, presenting a significant opportunity by enabling broad access and removing patient pathway barriers. **Evidence (transcript):** "And we're excited to have received the final Medicare NCD for simplicity three weeks ago. So now in addition to a broad label from the FDA, we have an excellent coverage outcome from CMS. The final NCD enables broad access and removes certain patient pathway barriers that were in the original proposal, including reducing in-person visits, removing a kidney function exclusion, and cutting in half the time requirement for adherence to meds." **Numbers:** — ### 4. altaviva_launch **Claim:** Positive signs are emerging in the first weeks of the Altaviva US launch, with high demand for physician training programs and a surge in consumer search activity. **Evidence (transcript):** "We're seeing very positive signs in the first several weeks of The US launch. Physician training programs are oversubscribed. And we're expanding training capacity to meet this demand. Physicians are stacking cases and early media coverage has driven a surge in consumer search activity." **Numbers:** — ### 5. cardiovascular_growth **Claim:** Medtronic's cardiovascular portfolio grew 9%, marking its strongest growth in over a decade, driven by momentum in CAS. **Evidence (transcript):** "So I'll start with our cardiovascular portfolio, where we grew 9%. This was our strongest growth over a decade, excluding the easy comparisons we had after the pandemic. The growth acceleration was driven by our building momentum in CAS, which Geoff walked you through." **Numbers:** 9% ### 6. fy26_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Medtronic is raising its fiscal 2026 revenue growth expectation to approximately 5.5%, based on its outperformance in the first half of the year and confidence in revenue growth acceleration. **Evidence (transcript):** "Given our outperformance in the first half of the year, as well as the confidence we have in our revenue growth acceleration, we're raising our full-year revenue guidance today. Year to date, we've delivered 5.2% organic growth, and we expect this to further accelerate in the back half of the year. As a result, now expect fiscal 2026 revenue growth of approximately 5.5%." **Numbers:** 5.5%, 5.2%, 2026 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*