5 analysts' median target is $97[FMP target], stock is $80, +20.8% upside potential. After Q4 +10.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.4%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 47[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $19.5B[FMP est], EPS $2.25[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +10.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.4% D+1[FMP D+1]. John McCallion promised $0 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[John McCallion capex transcript].
Watchlist
Mim Aum Growth
mim_aum_growth
At year-end, MIM had $742 billion of assets under management, up from roughly $600 billion a year ago.
"To accelerate growth in asset management, we closed on the acquisition of PineBridge Investments and established a new business segment, MetLife Investment Management. At year-end, MIM had $742 billion of assets under management, up from roughly $600 billion a year ago."
- Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 5, 2026
Group Benefits Growth
group_benefits_growth
MetLife's best-in-class group benefits business added approximately $100 million of new adjusted premiums, fees, and other revenues in 2025.
"Reinforcing our market leadership, our best-in-class group benefits business added approximately $100 million of new adjusted premiums, fees, and other revenues in 2025, with higher margin voluntary PFOs rising 10% year over year."
- Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 5, 2026
Asia Sales Growth
asia_sales_growth
In 2025, Asia saw constant currency sales jump 18%, aided by a strong contribution from Japan, while Latin America saw constant currency sales rise by 12%, with Mexico leading the charge.
"In 2025, Asia saw constant currency sales jump 18%, aided by a strong contribution from Japan, while Latin America saw constant currency sales rise by 12%, with Mexico leading the charge."
- Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 5, 2026
Free Cash Flow Generation
free_cash_flow_generation
In 2025, we made a $4.9 billion down payment toward that cumulative target.
"And where it all comes together, free cash flow-we committed to generate $25 billion over the course of five years. In 2025, we made a $4.9 billion down payment toward that cumulative target."
- Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 5, 2026
Pension Risk Transfer
pension_risk_transfer
MetLife originated more than $14 billion of pension risk transfer sales in 2025, MetLife's highest ever annual PRT total.
"We capitalize on our unique retirement platform by seeding a sidecar, Chariot Re, tapping the US retail retirement space via flow reinsurance, and originating more than $14 billion of pension risk transfer sales, MetLife's highest ever annual PRT total."
- Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 5, 2026
Expense Ratio Improvement
expense_ratio_improvement
In 2025 alone, aided by AI and other emerging technologies, we lowered our direct expense ratio to 11.7%, putting us well ahead of schedule.
"In 2025 alone, aided by AI and other emerging technologies, we lowered our direct expense ratio to 11.7%, putting us well ahead of schedule."
- Michel Khalaf, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 5, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Price Momentum strong. Gross Margin weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (February 5, 2026): EPS $2.58 vs $2.34 est[FMP], +10.3% beat. D+1 movement: -3.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $2.58 vs $2.34 beat[FMP], stock -3.4% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $0[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 4.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.25[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $0"[John McCallion]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This MET (MET) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.