--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/meta last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:24:35.679Z --- # Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:24:34.507Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $608.75 (▼ -0.52%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $1.54T | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $520.26 – $796.25 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $7.19 (+1% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $60.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $825 (+35.5% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 63/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Meta Platforms, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $60.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $7.19^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 63 = MoonshotScore 63^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (4 metrics) ### 1. Fy26 Capex Guidance Meta anticipates 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to be in the range of $125 billion to $145 billion. > "We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to be in the range of $125 billion to $145 billion, increased from our prior range of $115 billion to $135 billion." > — Susan Li, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Q2 Revenue Guidance Meta expects second quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion. > "We expect second quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion." > — Susan Li, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Family App Revenue Growth Meta's family of apps revenue increased by 33%, driven by WhatsApp paid messaging and subscriptions revenue. > "Q1 total family of apps revenue was $55.9 billion, up 33% year-over-year." > — Susan Li, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Ai Business Conversations Weekly conversations with Meta's business AIs have grown 10x since the start of this year. > "We're already testing an early version of business AIs and weekly conversations have grown 10x since the start of this year." > — Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 9.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+18.5%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (81.9%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 4.0 | medium | op margin very strong (40.6%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 7.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($13.2B vs $19.0B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (29.3%, margin pressure risk) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 40.7 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (89%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +35.5% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 41 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +35.5% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +35.5% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 40.7 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $630 — hisse %3.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $678 — hisse %10.3 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +24% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $7.14 | $5.88 | BEAT | +11.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $7.25 | $6.72 | BEAT | -11.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $8.88 | $8.19 | BEAT | +10.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $10.44 | $6.67 | +56.5% EPS | -8.6% | Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 est^[FMP], +56.5% beat. D+1 movement: -8.6%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $7.19 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $7.19^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $825^{[FMP target]}; high target $910^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $7.19 + CapEx < $19.0B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $7.19^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $19.0B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $609^[FMP] and median $825^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $6.97 or CapEx ≥ $19.0B** Threshold: EPS < $6.97^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $609 below SMA200 $678^[FMP], if rejection continues, $577^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 beat^[FMP], stock -8.6% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $19.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 40.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $825 (+35.5% upside vs current $609) - **High / Low:** $910 / $700 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 59 / 7 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 1 (last quarter), 253 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. family_app_revenue_growth **Claim:** Meta's family of apps revenue increased by 33%, driven by WhatsApp paid messaging and subscriptions revenue. **Evidence (transcript):** "Q1 total family of apps revenue was $55.9 billion, up 33% year-over-year." **Numbers:** $55.9 billion, 33% ### 2. AI_glasses_growth **Claim:** Meta's AI glasses continue to perform well with the number of people using them, daily tripling year-over-year, becoming one of the fastest-growing categories of consumer electronics ever. **Evidence (transcript):** "Talking about building physical goods at scale, our AI glasses continue to perform well with the number of people using them, daily tripling year-over-year." **Numbers:** — ### 3. infrastructure_capex_increase **Claim:** Meta is increasing its infrastructure CapEx forecast for 2026 due to higher component costs. **Evidence (transcript):** "On that note, we are increasing our infrastructure CapEx forecast for this year. Most of that is due to higher component costs, particularly memory pricing, but every sign that we're seeing in our own work and across the industry gives us confidence in this investment." **Numbers:** — ### 4. q2_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Meta expects second quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect second quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion." **Numbers:** $58 billion, $61 billion, 2026 ### 5. fy26_capex_guidance **Claim:** Meta anticipates 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to be in the range of $125 billion to $145 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to be in the range of $125 billion to $145 billion, increased from our prior range of $115 billion to $135 billion." **Numbers:** 2026, $125 billion, $145 billion, $115 billion, $135 billion ### 6. ai_business_conversations **Claim:** Weekly conversations with Meta's business AIs have grown 10x since the start of this year. **Evidence (transcript):** "We're already testing an early version of business AIs and weekly conversations have grown 10x since the start of this year." **Numbers:** 10x --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*