--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mpwr last_updated: 2026-08-12T06:15:04.809Z --- # Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-08-12T06:15:04.383Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $1402.11 (▲ 1.52%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $68.9B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $800.97 – $1714.09 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 29 Oct | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $7.69 (+63% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $1800 (+28.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 70/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $1.2B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $7.69^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 4/6 · **Moonshot:** 70 = MoonshotScore 70^{[multi-pillar formula]} + Council 4/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Q2 Revenue Growth MPS achieved record quarterly revenue of $981 million in Q2'26, representing 22% sequential growth and 48% year-over-year growth. > "In Q2, MPS achieved record quarterly revenue of $981 million 22% higher than the first quarter of 26 and 48% higher than the second quarter of 25." > — Tony Balow, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Enterprise Data Growth Guidance The Enterprise Data segment grew 45% in Q2, and the company raised its full-year growth expectation for this market from 85% to 130%, believing sales are continuing through with very low inventory levels. > "All end markets grew sequentially with enterprise data growing 45% as we continue to see strong broad based ordering patterns... we are willing to raise floor for that particular end market from 85% for the year to 130% for the year." > — Tony Balow, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. 800v Ac To Dc Products MPS began sampling high voltage AC-to-DC products for 800-volt data center architectures, expanding beyond its current AI and server core power solutions, and these products rely on MPS silicon carbide devices. > "We began sampling high voltage AC-to-DC products for 800-volt data center architectures as an expand beyond our current AI and server core power solutions... In terms of 800-volt solution, we totally rely on NPS silicon carbide device." > — Tony Balow, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Stock Repurchase Authorization The Board of Directors authorized an additional $500 million for stock repurchases, increasing the total current authorization to $1 billion. > "I am also pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has authorized an additional $500 million for stock repurchases increasing our total current authorization to $1 billion." > — Tony Balow, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Capacity Expansion Goals MPS significantly extended its capacity goals beyond $6 billion to support future revenue growth and its transformation into a full solution provider. > "We extended our capacity goals significantly beyond $6 billion to support future revenue growth and our transformation into a full solution provider." > — Tony Balow, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+33.0%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q2: high margin (55.2%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin very strong (31.0%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF strong ($0.1B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (12.6%) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 53.2 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (88%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +28.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 53 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +28.4% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +28.4% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 53.2 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $1413 — hisse %0.8 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $1223 — hisse %14.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -60% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $4.73 | $4.64 | BEAT | -7.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.79 | $4.74 | BEAT | +6.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $5.10 | $4.90 | BEAT | -1.9% | | Q2 FY26 | $6.50 | $5.87 | +10.7% EPS | +8.3% | Q2 (July 30, 2026): EPS $6.50 vs $5.87 est^[FMP], +10.7% beat. D+1 movement: +8.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $7.69 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $7.69^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $1800^{[FMP target]}; high target $2100^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $7.69 + CapEx < $82.4M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $7.69^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $82.4M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1402^[FMP] and median $1800^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $7.46 or CapEx ≥ $82.4M** Threshold: EPS < $7.46^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $1402 below SMA200 $1223^[FMP], if rejection continues, $1040^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $6.50 vs $5.87 beat^[FMP], stock +8.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $82.4M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 31.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $1800 (+28.4% upside vs current $1402) - **High / Low:** $2100 / $1500 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 2 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 41 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q2_revenue_growth **Claim:** MPS achieved record quarterly revenue of $981 million in Q2'26, representing 22% sequential growth and 48% year-over-year growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Q2, MPS achieved record quarterly revenue of $981 million 22% higher than the first quarter of 26 and 48% higher than the second quarter of 25." **Numbers:** $981 million, 22%, 26, 48%, 25 ### 2. enterprise_data_growth_guidance **Claim:** The Enterprise Data segment grew 45% in Q2, and the company raised its full-year growth expectation for this market from 85% to 130%, believing sales are continuing through with very low inventory levels. **Evidence (transcript):** "All end markets grew sequentially with enterprise data growing 45% as we continue to see strong broad based ordering patterns... we are willing to raise floor for that particular end market from 85% for the year to 130% for the year." **Numbers:** 45%, 85%, 130% ### 3. capacity_expansion_goals **Claim:** MPS significantly extended its capacity goals beyond $6 billion to support future revenue growth and its transformation into a full solution provider. **Evidence (transcript):** "We extended our capacity goals significantly beyond $6 billion to support future revenue growth and our transformation into a full solution provider." **Numbers:** $6 billion ### 4. ddr5_memory_products **Claim:** The company received initial orders for high-speed DDR5 memory and expects these products to grow its SAM into next year. **Evidence (transcript):** "We received initial orders for high speed DDR5 memory we expect to grow our SAM into next year." **Numbers:** — ### 5. 800v_ac_to_dc_products **Claim:** MPS began sampling high voltage AC-to-DC products for 800-volt data center architectures, expanding beyond its current AI and server core power solutions, and these products rely on MPS silicon carbide devices. **Evidence (transcript):** "We began sampling high voltage AC-to-DC products for 800-volt data center architectures as an expand beyond our current AI and server core power solutions... In terms of 800-volt solution, we totally rely on NPS silicon carbide device." **Numbers:** 800-volt ### 6. stock_repurchase_authorization **Claim:** The Board of Directors authorized an additional $500 million for stock repurchases, increasing the total current authorization to $1 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "I am also pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has authorized an additional $500 million for stock repurchases increasing our total current authorization to $1 billion." **Numbers:** $500 million, $1 billion --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-08-12), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*