--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mrk last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:54:12.194Z --- # Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:54:10.868Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $112.17 (▲ 2.73%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $277.0B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $73.31 – $125.14 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 29 Oct | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.33 (+9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $17.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $133 (+18.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 49/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Merck & Co., Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $17.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.33^{[FMP est]}. 5 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 1/6 · **Moonshot:** 49 = MoonshotScore 49^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 1/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Keytruda Growth Sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products increased 8% to $8 billion, with global growth driven by continued strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers. > "In Oncology, sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products which includes KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX, increased 8% to $8 billion, with global growth driven by continued strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers." > — Caroline Litchfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Welireg Growth WELIREG sales increased 43% to $199 million driven by continued uptake from ongoing launches in international markets and increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S. > "Notably, WELIREG sales increased 43% to $199 million driven by continued uptake from ongoing launches in international markets and increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S." > — Caroline Litchfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Capvaxive Growth In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE continues to progress well, with sales of $142 million, an increase of 31%. > "In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE continues to progress well, with sales of $142 million, an increase of 31%." > — Caroline Litchfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. 20 New Products Potential We're confident that this change will best position us to deliver on a potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s from these 20-plus anticipated new growth drivers alone. > "We're confident that this change will best position us to deliver on a potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s from these 20-plus anticipated new growth drivers alone." > — Robert Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Winrevair Sales Global sales of WINREVAIR were $525 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important therapy. > "Global sales were $525 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important therapy." > — Caroline Litchfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Gardasil Sales Decline GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 22%, driven by lower demand in China and Japan, consistent with our expectations. > "In Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 22%, driven by lower demand in China and Japan, consistent with our expectations." > — Caroline Litchfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.1%) | | Gross Margin | 8.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (81.9%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (-11.6%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF strong ($1.8B FCF, covers CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (33.8%, margin pressure risk) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.0 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | majority buy (66%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +18.6% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 43 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +18.6% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +18.6% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 43.0 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $118 — hisse %4.6 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $100 — hisse %12.3 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +23% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.13 | $2.03 | BEAT | -1.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.58 | $2.36 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.04 | $2.01 | BEAT | +2.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $-1.28 | $-1.47 | +-12.9% EPS | +2.7% | Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $-1.28 vs $-1.47 est^[FMP], +0% beat. D+1 movement: +2.7%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $2.33 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.33^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $133^{[FMP target]}; high target $150^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.33 + CapEx < $1.0B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.33^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $1.0B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $112^[FMP] and median $133^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.26 or CapEx ≥ $1.0B** Threshold: EPS < $2.26^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $112 below SMA200 $100^[FMP], if rejection continues, $85^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $-1.28 vs $-1.47 beat^[FMP], stock +2.7% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $1.0B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin -11.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $133 (+18.6% upside vs current $112) - **High / Low:** $150 / $100 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 19 / 10 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 64 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. keytruda_growth **Claim:** Sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products increased 8% to $8 billion, with global growth driven by continued strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Oncology, sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products which includes KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX, increased 8% to $8 billion, with global growth driven by continued strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers." **Numbers:** 8%, $8 billion ### 2. welireg_growth **Claim:** WELIREG sales increased 43% to $199 million driven by continued uptake from ongoing launches in international markets and increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S. **Evidence (transcript):** "Notably, WELIREG sales increased 43% to $199 million driven by continued uptake from ongoing launches in international markets and increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S." **Numbers:** 43%, $199 million ### 3. gardasil_sales_decline **Claim:** GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 22%, driven by lower demand in China and Japan, consistent with our expectations. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 22%, driven by lower demand in China and Japan, consistent with our expectations." **Numbers:** $1.1 billion, 22% ### 4. capvaxive_growth **Claim:** In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE continues to progress well, with sales of $142 million, an increase of 31%. **Evidence (transcript):** "In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE continues to progress well, with sales of $142 million, an increase of 31%." **Numbers:** $142 million, 31% ### 5. winrevair_sales **Claim:** Global sales of WINREVAIR were $525 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important therapy. **Evidence (transcript):** "Global sales were $525 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important therapy." **Numbers:** $525 million ### 6. 20_new_products_potential **Claim:** We're confident that this change will best position us to deliver on a potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s from these 20-plus anticipated new growth drivers alone. **Evidence (transcript):** "We're confident that this change will best position us to deliver on a potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s from these 20-plus anticipated new growth drivers alone." **Numbers:** $70 billion, 20 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*