--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/msft last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:19:52.906Z --- # Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T23:19:51.961Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $414.19 (▲ 1.57%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $3.08T | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $356.28 – $555.45 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $4.23 (+16% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $87.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $550 (+32.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 64/100 | derived | | Council | 5/7 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Microsoft Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $87.6B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $4.23^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/7 · **Moonshot:** 64 = MoonshotScore 64^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/7^{[7-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Copilot Growth Microsoft 365 Copilot's daily active users increasing 10x year over year and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. > "Microsoft 365 Copilot also is becoming a true daily habit with daily active users increasing 10x year over year. We saw accelerating seat growth quarter over quarter and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats" > — Satya Nadella, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Microsoft Cloud Revenue Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency. > "Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency." > — Amy Hood, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Fy26 Operating Margins MSFT now expects FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly with the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses. > "With the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses we now expect FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly." > — Amy Hood, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Azure Growth Q3 Guidance MSFT expects Azure revenue growth to be between %37-38 in constant currency against the prior year comparable. > "In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included." > — Amy Hood, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Commercial Rpo Commercial remaining performance obligation increased to $625 billion, and approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI. > "Commercial remaining performance obligation, continues to be reported net of reserves, increased to $625 billion. Approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI." > — Amy Hood, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q3 vs Q4: healthy growth (+8.4%) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q3: very high margin (67.6%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (46.3%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 6.0 | medium | FCF positive but absorbed ($15.8B vs $30.9B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (10.8%) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.5 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (95%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +32.8% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 54 | | Englander | neutral | multi-strat · Copilot +10% YoY | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +32.8% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +32.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 54.5 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $396 — hisse %4.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $468 — hisse %11.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -12% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $3.65 | $3.37 | BEAT | +3.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.13 | $3.67 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q2 FY26 | $4.14 | $3.90 | BEAT | -10.0% | | Q3 FY26 | $4.27 | $4.06 | +5.2% EPS | -3.9% | Q2 (January 28, 2026): EPS $4.27 vs $4.06 est^[FMP], +5.2% beat. D+1 movement: -3.9%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $4.23 + Azure ≥ 38%** Threshold: EPS > $4.23^{[FMP est]} and Azure ≥ 38%^{[Amy Hood transcript]}. Target: Break above median target $550^{[FMP target]}; high target $675^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $4.23 + Azure 37-38% + CapEx promise kept** Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.23^{[FMP est]}, Azure 37-38%, Q4 CapEx < $30.9B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $414^[FMP] and median $550^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.10 or Azure < 35% or CapEx ≥ $30.9B** Threshold: EPS < $4.10^{[FMP est×0.97]} or Azure < 35%^{[Amy Hood guidance lower minus 2]}. Target: Current $414 below SMA200 $468^[FMP], if rejection continues, $398^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $4.27 vs $4.06 beat^[FMP], stock -3.9% D+1^[FMP]. Amy Hood Q2 transcript: "In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included."^{[Amy Hood]}. ### Backlog concentration Total committed revenue of $625B announced in Q2 earnings call; 45% (~$281B) of this is tied to a single partner^{[transcript RPO disclosure]}. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $30.9B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Amy Hood Q2 transcript: "We expect capital expenditures to decrease on a sequential basis due to a normal variability from cloud infrastructure build-outs and the timing of delivery of finance leases."^{[Amy Hood transcript]}. Q2 op margin 46.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $550 (+32.8% upside vs current $414) - **High / Low:** $675 / $415 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 52 / 3 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 17 (last quarter), 249 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. azure_growth_q3_guidance **Claim:** MSFT expects Azure revenue growth to be between %37-38 in constant currency against the prior year comparable. **Evidence (transcript):** "In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included." **Numbers:** 37-38% ### 2. microsoft_cloud_revenue **Claim:** Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency. **Evidence (transcript):** "Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency." **Numbers:** $51.5, 26% ### 3. commercial_rpo **Claim:** Commercial remaining performance obligation increased to $625 billion, and approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI. **Evidence (transcript):** "Commercial remaining performance obligation, continues to be reported net of reserves, increased to $625 billion. Approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI." **Numbers:** $625, 45% ### 4. fy26_operating_margins **Claim:** MSFT now expects FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly with the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses. **Evidence (transcript):** "With the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses we now expect FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly." **Numbers:** 26 ### 5. copilot_growth **Claim:** Microsoft 365 Copilot's daily active users increasing 10x year over year and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. **Evidence (transcript):** "Microsoft 365 Copilot also is becoming a true daily habit with daily active users increasing 10x year over year. We saw accelerating seat growth quarter over quarter and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats" **Numbers:** 10x, 15 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*