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# Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:03:26.987Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $438.01 (▲ 0.10%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $72.8B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $359.36 – $492.22 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 7 May | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $3.25 (+2% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $2.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $485 (+10.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 69/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Motorola Solutions, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$2.7B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$3.25</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 69

= MoonshotScore <strong>69</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Fy26 Revenue Guidance

Motorola Solutions expects revenue of approximately $12.7 billion for the full year 2026.

> "For the full year, we expect revenue of approximately $12.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $16.70 and $16.85 per share."
> — Jason Winkler, Executive Vice President and CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. Assist Suites Pricing

Motorola Solutions is offering its public safety AI applications under a role-based pricing model of $99 per user per month.

> "We've tailored these offers to assist these key personnel under a role-based pricing model of $99 per user per month."
> — Jason Winkler, Executive Vice President and CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 3. Margin Expansion

Motorola Solutions expanded operating margins 130 basis points that resulted in our first-ever 30-plus annual operating margin.

> "We expanded operating margins 130 basis points that resulted in our first-ever 30-plus annual operating margin."
> — Gregory Brown, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Record Cash Flow

Motorola Solutions achieved record operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, up 19%.

> "We also achieved record operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, which was up 19%."
> — Gregory Brown, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 5. Record Backlog

Motorola Solutions ended the year with a record backlog of $15.7 billion, up $1 billion year-over-year.

> "We also grew orders by 26% and ended the year with our highest ever backlog of $15.7 billion, up $1 billion year-over-year."
> — Gregory Brown, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025

### 6. Svx Adoption

Motorola Solutions has shipped over 15,000 SVX devices since we launched, and we have a robust funnel of opportunities for the coming year.

> "We've shipped over 15,000 SVX devices since we launched, and we have a robust funnel of opportunities for the coming year."
> — Gregory Brown, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+33.7%) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q4: average margin (48.7%) |
| Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.0%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($1.1B, 10.0× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (8.3%) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 47.3 balanced, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (86%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +10.6% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 47 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +10.6% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +10.6% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 47.3 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50d MA:** $451 — hisse %3.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $430 — hisse %1.8 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -73%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | $3.18 | $3.01 | BEAT | -7.5% |
| Q2 FY25 | $3.57 | $3.35 | BEAT | +1.9% |
| Q3 FY25 | $4.06 | $3.85 | BEAT | -5.8% |
| Q4 FY25 | $4.59 | $4.35 | +5.5% EPS | +7.7% |

Q4 (February 11, 2026): EPS $4.59 vs $4.35 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +5.5% beat. D+1 movement: +7.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $3.25 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $3.25<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $485<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $506<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $3.25 + CapEx < $114.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.25<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $114.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $438<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $485<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $3.15 or CapEx ≥ $114.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $3.15<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $438 below SMA200 $430<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $366<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $4.59 vs $4.35 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +7.7% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY25

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $114.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 26.0%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $485 (+10.6% upside vs current $438)
- **High / Low:** $506 / $450
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 12 / 2 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 17 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. record_backlog

**Claim:** Motorola Solutions ended the year with a record backlog of $15.7 billion, up $1 billion year-over-year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We also grew orders by 26% and ended the year with our highest ever backlog of $15.7 billion, up $1 billion year-over-year."

**Numbers:** %26, $15.7 billion, $1 billion

### 2. record_cash_flow

**Claim:** Motorola Solutions achieved record operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, up 19%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We also achieved record operating cash flow of $2.8 billion, which was up 19%."

**Numbers:** $2.8 billion, %19

### 3. margin_expansion

**Claim:** Motorola Solutions expanded operating margins 130 basis points that resulted in our first-ever 30-plus annual operating margin.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We expanded operating margins 130 basis points that resulted in our first-ever 30-plus annual operating margin."

**Numbers:** 130

### 4. assist_suites_pricing

**Claim:** Motorola Solutions is offering its public safety AI applications under a role-based pricing model of $99 per user per month.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We've tailored these offers to assist these key personnel under a role-based pricing model of $99 per user per month."

**Numbers:** $99

### 5. svx_adoption

**Claim:** Motorola Solutions has shipped over 15,000 SVX devices since we launched, and we have a robust funnel of opportunities for the coming year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We've shipped over 15,000 SVX devices since we launched, and we have a robust funnel of opportunities for the coming year."

**Numbers:** 15,000

### 6. fy26_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** Motorola Solutions expects revenue of approximately $12.7 billion for the full year 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For the full year, we expect revenue of approximately $12.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $16.70 and $16.85 per share."

**Numbers:** $12.7 billion, $16.70, $16.85


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*