--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mtb last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:40:17.182Z --- # M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Q2 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:40:16.762Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $212.14 (▼ -0.41%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $31.6B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $174.76 – $239.00 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 19 Jan | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $5.00 (+17% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $2.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $235 (+10.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## M&T Bank Corporation — Q2 FY2027 Expectations Q2 consensus: revenue $2.5B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $5.00^{[FMP est]}. 4 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 47 = MoonshotScore 47^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. NII Guidance M&T Bank Corporation expects Net Interest Income (NII) for the full year 2026 to be approximately $7.2 billion to $7.35 billion. > "We expect NII of approximately $7.2 billion to $7.35 billion, which translates into a NIM in the high 3.60s." > — Daryl Bible, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. CET1 Ratio Guidance M&T Bank Corporation is moving to the bottom end of the CET1 ratio range of 10%, given continued asset quality improvement and our strong performance. > "We are also moving to the bottom end of the CET1 ratio range of 10%, given continued asset quality improvement and our strong performance." > — Daryl Bible, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. C&I Loan Growth M&T Bank Corporation's average Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loans grew $1.5 billion from the fourth quarter, including a pickup in middle market growth. > "C&I growth was strong, with average C&I loans growing $1.5 billion from the fourth quarter, including a pickup in middle market growth." > — Daryl Bible, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Share Repurchases M&T Bank Corporation executed $1.25 billion in share repurchases, representing over 3.5% of shares outstanding as of 2025. > "We brought our capital levels within our operating range and executed $1.25 billion in share repurchases, representing over 3.5% of shares outstanding as of 2025." > — Daryl Bible, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Asset Quality Improvement M&T Bank Corporation's asset quality is strong, with more than $700 million reduction in criticized balances and net charge-offs of 31 basis points. > "Credit continues to perform well, with more than $700 million reduction in criticized balances and net charge-offs of 31 basis points." > — Daryl Bible, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-2.0%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (71.3%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.8%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.9B, 9.5× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 44.9 weak momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | mixed (33% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +10.8% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 45 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +10.8% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +10.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Moderate - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 44.9 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $211 — hisse %0.3 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $203 — hisse %4.5 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -30% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.28 | $3.99 | BEAT | +1.6% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.87 | $4.43 | BEAT | +1.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.67 | $4.48 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.18 | $4.02 | +4.0% EPS | -0.1% | Q1 (April 15, 2026): EPS $4.18 vs $4.02 est^[FMP], +4.0% beat. D+1 movement: -0.1%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q2 EPS > $5.00 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $5.00^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $235^{[FMP target]}; high target $255^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $5.00 + CapEx < $96.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $5.00^{[FMP est]}, Q2 CapEx < $96.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $212^[FMP] and median $235^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $4.85 or CapEx ≥ $96.0M** Threshold: EPS < $4.85^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $212 below SMA200 $203^[FMP], if rejection continues, $172^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $4.18 vs $4.02 beat^[FMP], stock -0.1% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $96.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 26.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q2 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $235 (+10.8% upside vs current $212) - **High / Low:** $255 / $225 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 13 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 55 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. NII_guidance **Claim:** M&T Bank Corporation expects Net Interest Income (NII) for the full year 2026 to be approximately $7.2 billion to $7.35 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect NII of approximately $7.2 billion to $7.35 billion, which translates into a NIM in the high 3.60s." **Numbers:** $7.2 billion, $7.35 billion, 3.60 ### 2. fee_income_expense_guidance **Claim:** M&T Bank Corporation expects both fee income and expenses to trend toward the top of their respective ranges. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect both fee income and expenses to trend toward the top of their respective ranges." **Numbers:** — ### 3. CET1_ratio_guidance **Claim:** M&T Bank Corporation is moving to the bottom end of the CET1 ratio range of 10%, given continued asset quality improvement and our strong performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are also moving to the bottom end of the CET1 ratio range of 10%, given continued asset quality improvement and our strong performance." **Numbers:** 10% ### 4. share_repurchases **Claim:** M&T Bank Corporation executed $1.25 billion in share repurchases, representing over 3.5% of shares outstanding as of 2025. **Evidence (transcript):** "We brought our capital levels within our operating range and executed $1.25 billion in share repurchases, representing over 3.5% of shares outstanding as of 2025." **Numbers:** $1.25 billion, 3.5%, 2025 ### 5. C&I_loan_growth **Claim:** M&T Bank Corporation's average Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loans grew $1.5 billion from the fourth quarter, including a pickup in middle market growth. **Evidence (transcript):** "C&I growth was strong, with average C&I loans growing $1.5 billion from the fourth quarter, including a pickup in middle market growth." **Numbers:** $1.5 billion ### 6. asset_quality_improvement **Claim:** M&T Bank Corporation's asset quality is strong, with more than $700 million reduction in criticized balances and net charge-offs of 31 basis points. **Evidence (transcript):** "Credit continues to perform well, with more than $700 million reduction in criticized balances and net charge-offs of 31 basis points." **Numbers:** $700 million, 31 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*