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last_updated: 2026-05-09T12:45:30.806Z
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# Mettler-Toledo International Inc. (MTD) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T12:45:30.317Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $1124.46 (▼ -14.77%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $22.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $1096.43 – $1525.17 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Thu 30 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $11.04 (+9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $1.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $1475 (+31.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 44/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## Mettler-Toledo International Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$1.0B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$11.04</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 8 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** C+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 44

= MoonshotScore <strong>44</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Free Cash Flow Guidance

Mettler-Toledo expects free cash flow to be approximately $900 million in 2026, which is an increase of 5% on a per share basis.

> "Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $900 million in 2026, which is an increase of 5% on a per share basis, with the first quarter approximately $100 million, which is impacted by the timing of tax payments."
> — Shawn Vadala, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 2. 2026 EPS Growth Guidance

Mettler-Toledo forecasts adjusted EPS to be in the range of $46.05 to $46.70 for the full year 2026, representing a growth rate of 8% to 9%.

> "Adjusted EPS is forecast to be in the range of $46.05 to $46.70, which represents a growth rate of 8% to 9%."
> — Shawn Vadala, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 3. 2026 Sales Growth Guidance

Mettler-Toledo forecasts local currency sales growth of approximately 4% for the full year 2026.

> "For the full year 2026, our local currency sales growth forecast is unchanged at approximately 4% or approximately 3.5%, excluding our previously announced acquisitions."
> — Shawn Vadala, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 4. Share Repurchase Guidance

Mettler-Toledo expects share repurchases to be in the range of $825 million to $875 million in 2026.

> "Share repurchases are expected to be in the range of $825 million to $875 million."
> — Shawn Vadala, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025

### 5. China Growth

Mettler-Toledo's business in China grew 3%, led by good demand for industrial products from biopharma customers.

> "Our business in China grew 3%, led by good demand for industrial products from biopharma customers."
> — Patrick Kaltenbach, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025

### 6. Tariff Impact

Tariffs reduced Mettler-Toledo's operating profit by 7% and operating margin by 1.9% in 2025.

> "We estimate the gross impact of tariffs reduced our operating profit by 7% and was a 190 basis point headwind to our operating margin."
> — Shawn Vadala, CFO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-3.7%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (58.7%) |
| Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (26.0%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.1B, 7.0× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | average R&D (5.0%) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 31.6 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +31.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 32 |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +31.2% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +31.2% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Weak
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 31.6 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $1269 — hisse %11.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $1337 — hisse %15.9 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** +223%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $10.09 | $9.60 | BEAT | -3.0% |
| Q3 FY25 | $11.15 | $10.66 | BEAT | -0.0% |
| Q4 FY25 | $13.36 | $12.80 | BEAT | -0.7% |
| Q1 FY26 | $8.91 | $8.70 | +2.4% EPS | -14.8% |

Q4 (February 6, 2026): EPS $8.91 vs $8.70 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +2.4% beat. D+1 movement: -14.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $11.04 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $11.04<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $1475<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $1600<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $11.04 + CapEx < $17.4M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $11.04<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $17.4M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1124<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $1475<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $10.71 or CapEx ≥ $17.4M**

Threshold: EPS < $10.71<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $1124 below SMA200 $1337<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $1137<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q4: EPS $8.91 vs $8.70 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -14.8% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q4 CapEx $17.4M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q4 op margin 26.0%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $1475 (+31.2% upside vs current $1124)
- **High / Low:** $1600 / $1445
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 7 / 0
- **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 23 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. 2026_sales_growth_guidance

**Claim:** Mettler-Toledo forecasts local currency sales growth of approximately 4% for the full year 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "For the full year 2026, our local currency sales growth forecast is unchanged at approximately 4% or approximately 3.5%, excluding our previously announced acquisitions."

**Numbers:** 4%, 3.5%

### 2. 2026_EPS_growth_guidance

**Claim:** Mettler-Toledo forecasts adjusted EPS to be in the range of $46.05 to $46.70 for the full year 2026, representing a growth rate of 8% to 9%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Adjusted EPS is forecast to be in the range of $46.05 to $46.70, which represents a growth rate of 8% to 9%."

**Numbers:** $46.05, $46.70, 8%, 9%

### 3. tariff_impact

**Claim:** Tariffs reduced Mettler-Toledo's operating profit by 7% and operating margin by 1.9% in 2025.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We estimate the gross impact of tariffs reduced our operating profit by 7% and was a 190 basis point headwind to our operating margin."

**Numbers:** 7%, 190

### 4. free_cash_flow_guidance

**Claim:** Mettler-Toledo expects free cash flow to be approximately $900 million in 2026, which is an increase of 5% on a per share basis.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $900 million in 2026, which is an increase of 5% on a per share basis, with the first quarter approximately $100 million, which is impacted by the timing of tax payments."

**Numbers:** $900, 5%, $100

### 5. share_repurchase_guidance

**Claim:** Mettler-Toledo expects share repurchases to be in the range of $825 million to $875 million in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Share repurchases are expected to be in the range of $825 million to $875 million."

**Numbers:** $825, $875

### 6. china_growth

**Claim:** Mettler-Toledo's business in China grew 3%, led by good demand for industrial products from biopharma customers.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our business in China grew 3%, led by good demand for industrial products from biopharma customers."

**Numbers:** 3%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*