--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/mu last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:35:22.237Z --- # Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T20:35:20.912Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $542.21 (▲ 4.84%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $611.5B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $78.54 – $545.91 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 24 Jun | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $19.19 (+905% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $33.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $450 (-17.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 70/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Micron Technology, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $33.9B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $19.19^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 70 = MoonshotScore 70^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Fiscal Q3 Guidance Micron expects fiscal Q3 revenue to be a record $33,500,000,000, plus or minus $750,000,000, gross margin to be approximately 81%, and EPS to be a record $19.15 per share, plus or minus $0.40. > "We expect fiscal Q3 revenue to be a record $33,500,000,000, plus or minus $750,000,000, gross margin to be approximately 81%, and EPS to be a record $19.15 per share, plus or minus $0.40." > — Mark Murphy, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Record Revenue Guidance Micron's fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in the company's history through fiscal 2024. > "Our fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in our company's history through fiscal 2024." > — Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Fiscal 2026 Capex Micron expects fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000. > "We expect fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000." > — Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Hbm4 Volume Shipment Micron has begun volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12-Hi in 2026 and is designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin. > "At NVIDIA's GTC, we announced that Micron Technology, Inc. has begun volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12-Hi in 2026 and is designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin." > — Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. 1 Gamma Dram Majority Micron expects 1γ DRAM to become a majority of its DRAM bit mix by mid-calendar 2026. > "We expect 1γ to become the highest-volume node in Micron Technology, Inc.'s history. Our 1γ node was already the fastest ramp to mature yields, is ramping volumes faster than all prior nodes in our history, and is on track to become a majority of our DRAM bit mix by mid-calendar 2026." > — Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 6. G9 Nand Majority Micron expects its G9 NAND node to remain on track to constitute a majority of bits by mid-calendar 2026. > "In NAND, our G9 node also remains on track to constitute a majority of bits by mid-calendar 2026." > — Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+156.5%) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q2: very high margin (74.4%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 7.0 | strong | op margin very strong (67.6%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 7.0 | strong | FCF positive but absorbed ($5.5B vs $6.4B CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | average R&D (7.6%) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 71.8 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (87%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -17.0% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 72 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -17.0% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -17.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 71.8 — overbought (RSI 71.8) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $426 — hisse %27.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $277 — hisse %95.7 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +6% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $1.91 | $1.60 | BEAT | -1.0% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.03 | $2.86 | BEAT | -2.8% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.78 | $3.96 | BEAT | +10.2% | | Q2 FY26 | $12.20 | $9.19 | +32.8% EPS | -3.8% | Q2 (March 18, 2026): EPS $12.20 vs $9.19 est^[FMP], +32.8% beat. D+1 movement: -3.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $19.19 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $19.19^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $450^{[FMP target]}; high target $1000^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $19.19 + CapEx < $6.4B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $19.19^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $6.4B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $542^[FMP] and median $450^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $18.61 or CapEx ≥ $6.4B** Threshold: EPS < $18.61^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $542 below SMA200 $277^[FMP], if rejection continues, $235^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $12.20 vs $9.19 beat^[FMP], stock -3.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $6.4B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 67.6%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $450 (-17.0% upside vs current $542) - **High / Low:** $1000 / $310 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 39 / 6 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 217 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. record_revenue_guidance **Claim:** Micron's fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in the company's history through fiscal 2024. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in our company's history through fiscal 2024." **Numbers:** 2024, 3 ### 2. 1-gamma_dram_majority **Claim:** Micron expects 1γ DRAM to become a majority of its DRAM bit mix by mid-calendar 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect 1γ to become the highest-volume node in Micron Technology, Inc.'s history. Our 1γ node was already the fastest ramp to mature yields, is ramping volumes faster than all prior nodes in our history, and is on track to become a majority of our DRAM bit mix by mid-calendar 2026." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 3. G9_nand_majority **Claim:** Micron expects its G9 NAND node to remain on track to constitute a majority of bits by mid-calendar 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "In NAND, our G9 node also remains on track to constitute a majority of bits by mid-calendar 2026." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 4. hbm4_volume_shipment **Claim:** Micron has begun volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12-Hi in 2026 and is designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin. **Evidence (transcript):** "At NVIDIA's GTC, we announced that Micron Technology, Inc. has begun volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12-Hi in 2026 and is designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin." **Numbers:** 36, 12, 2026 ### 5. fiscal_2026_capex **Claim:** Micron expects fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000." **Numbers:** 25,000,000,000, 2026 ### 6. fiscal_q3_guidance **Claim:** Micron expects fiscal Q3 revenue to be a record $33,500,000,000, plus or minus $750,000,000, gross margin to be approximately 81%, and EPS to be a record $19.15 per share, plus or minus $0.40. **Evidence (transcript):** "We expect fiscal Q3 revenue to be a record $33,500,000,000, plus or minus $750,000,000, gross margin to be approximately 81%, and EPS to be a record $19.15 per share, plus or minus $0.40." **Numbers:** 33,500,000,000, 750,000,000, 81, 19.15, 0.40, 3 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*