--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/ndaq last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:36:06.141Z --- # Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:36:05.846Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $89.00 (▼ -2.52%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $50.3B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $77.09 – $101.79 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 23 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $0.95 (+12% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $1.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $115 (+29.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 56/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Nasdaq, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $1.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $0.95^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 56 = MoonshotScore 56^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Expense Guidance Increase Nasdaq is updating its non-GAAP expense guidance for the year to a range of $2.485 billion to $2.545 billion from $2.455 billion to $2.535 billion, given the strong revenue performance we have experienced year-to-date. > "We are updating our non-GAAP expense guidance for the year to a range of $2.485 billion to $2.545 billion from $2.455 billion to $2.535 billion. given the strong revenue performance we have experienced year-to-date." > — Sarah Youngwood, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Arr Growth Nasdaq's overall annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, grew 12% year-over-year to $3.2 billion. > "Our overall annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, grew 12% year-over-year to $3.2 billion." > — Adena Friedman, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Q1 Organic Growth Nasdaq delivered the highest Q1 organic growth since 2021 across net revenue, solutions revenue, and operating income. > "We delivered the highest Q1 organic growth since 2021 across net revenue solutions revenue and operating income as well as our highest ever quarterly revenue growth in the Financial Technology division." > — Adena Friedman, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Acv Bookings Growth The Financial Technology division sustained compelling land and expand momentum, driving more than 50% year-over-year growth in ACV bookings while supporting clients transition to cloud. > "The division sustained compelling land and expand momentum, driving more than 50% year-over-year growth in ACV bookings. while supporting clients transition to cloud." > — Adena Friedman, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Etp Inflows Following $6 billion in inflows in Q1 2026, momentum is seen in Q2 with $15 billion of net ETP inflows as of April 20. > "ETP AUM reflected $79 billion in net inflows over the last 12 months, including $6 billion in the first quarter. As Adena said, we are encouraged by the momentum of ETP inflows we are experiencing earlier in the second quarter with $15 billion of net inflows as of April 20." > — Sarah Youngwood, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.2%, below threshold) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q1: very high margin (65.8%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin very strong (30.7%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.6B, 10.5× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 52.0 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (82%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +29.2% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 52 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +29.2% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +29.2% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 52.0 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $87 — hisse %2.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $91 — hisse %1.7 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** +47% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $0.85 | $0.81 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.88 | $0.85 | BEAT | -3.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $0.96 | $0.92 | BEAT | -1.2% | | Q1 FY26 | $0.96 | $0.93 | +3.2% EPS | +3.3% | Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $0.96 vs $0.93 est^[FMP], +3.2% beat. D+1 movement: +3.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $0.95 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $0.95^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $115^{[FMP target]}; high target $120^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $0.95 + CapEx < $60.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.95^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $60.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $89^[FMP] and median $115^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $0.92 or CapEx ≥ $60.0M** Threshold: EPS < $0.92^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $89 below SMA200 $91^[FMP], if rejection continues, $77^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $0.96 vs $0.93 beat^[FMP], stock +3.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $60.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 30.7%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $115 (+29.2% upside vs current $89) - **High / Low:** $120 / $109 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 3 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 46 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q1_organic_growth **Claim:** Nasdaq delivered the highest Q1 organic growth since 2021 across net revenue, solutions revenue, and operating income. **Evidence (transcript):** "We delivered the highest Q1 organic growth since 2021 across net revenue solutions revenue and operating income as well as our highest ever quarterly revenue growth in the Financial Technology division." **Numbers:** 2021 ### 2. arr_growth **Claim:** Nasdaq's overall annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, grew 12% year-over-year to $3.2 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our overall annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, grew 12% year-over-year to $3.2 billion." **Numbers:** 12%, $3.2 billion ### 3. etp_inflows **Claim:** Following $6 billion in inflows in Q1 2026, momentum is seen in Q2 with $15 billion of net ETP inflows as of April 20. **Evidence (transcript):** "ETP AUM reflected $79 billion in net inflows over the last 12 months, including $6 billion in the first quarter. As Adena said, we are encouraged by the momentum of ETP inflows we are experiencing earlier in the second quarter with $15 billion of net inflows as of April 20." **Numbers:** $79 billion, $6 billion, $15 billion, April 20 ### 4. acv_bookings_growth **Claim:** The Financial Technology division sustained compelling land and expand momentum, driving more than 50% year-over-year growth in ACV bookings while supporting clients transition to cloud. **Evidence (transcript):** "The division sustained compelling land and expand momentum, driving more than 50% year-over-year growth in ACV bookings. while supporting clients transition to cloud." **Numbers:** 50% ### 5. expense_guidance_increase **Claim:** Nasdaq is updating its non-GAAP expense guidance for the year to a range of $2.485 billion to $2.545 billion from $2.455 billion to $2.535 billion, given the strong revenue performance we have experienced year-to-date. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are updating our non-GAAP expense guidance for the year to a range of $2.485 billion to $2.545 billion from $2.455 billion to $2.535 billion. given the strong revenue performance we have experienced year-to-date." **Numbers:** $2.485 billion, $2.545 billion, $2.455 billion, $2.535 billion, 2026 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*