--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/noc last_updated: 2026-05-05T19:35:56.516Z --- # Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T19:35:56.038Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $555.49 (▼ -2.03%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $78.9B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $453.01 – $774.00 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 23 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $6.81 (-4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $10.8B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $750 (+35.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 26/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## Northrop Grumman Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $10.8B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $6.81^{[FMP est]}. 4 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 26 = MoonshotScore 26^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Capex Increase B21 Northrop Grumman will invest an additional $200 million in 2026 to support increased production capacity on B-21, bringing 2026 capital expenditures to $1.85 billion. > "This includes an additional $200 million we expect to invest this year to support the increased production capacity on B-21. As a result, we now expect $1.85 billion in 2026 capital expenditures." > — John Green, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Missile Defense Growth Northrop Grumman's missile defense business accounts for nearly 10% of company sales and is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities such as Golden Dome. > "Demand in this area has been exceptionally strong, and today, our missile defense business accounts for nearly 10% of company sales. Northrop Grumman Corporation is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities such as Golden Dome, as well as other program areas." > — Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Srm Market Growth Northrop Grumman's weapons business is nearing 10% of total company sales and is positioned to grow at a pace well above the company average. > "Overall, our weapons business is nearing 10% of total company sales and is positioned to grow at a pace well above the company average." > — Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Organic Sales Growth Northrop Grumman reported a 5% organic sales increase in Q1, driven by modernization projects. > "First quarter organic sales were up 5%, a great start to the year and consistent with our full year expectations." > — Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. B21 Production Increase Northrop Grumman finalized an agreement with the Air Force to increase the annual production rate of the B-21 by 25%, enhancing the program's long-term economics. > "As previously announced, we finalized an agreement with the Air Force to increase the annual production rate of the B-21 by 25%. This agreement demonstrates the strong operational requirements for the platform and confidence in our team to accelerate the delivery of this generation capability for the warfighter." > — Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Defense Budget Increase The U.S. fiscal year 2027 defense budget request increased by 44% to $1.5 trillion, emphasizing modernization. > "Earlier this month, the administration submitted a $1.5 trillion defense budget request for fiscal year 2027. The budget emphasizes modernization and represents a 44% increase over current funding levels." > — Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-4.5%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (19.8%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (10.0%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-1.8B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 19.2 oversold, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 5.0 | medium | majority buy (50%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +35.0% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | bull | quant · RSI 19 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +35.0% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +35.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 19.2 — oversold (RSI 19.2) — tepki alımı potansiyeli - **50d MA:** $679 — hisse %18.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $621 — hisse %10.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -83% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $7.11 | $6.92 | BEAT | +0.8% | | Q3 FY25 | $7.67 | $6.44 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q4 FY25 | $7.23 | $6.98 | BEAT | +1.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $6.14 | $6.06 | +1.3% EPS | -3.5% | Q1 (April 21, 2026): EPS $6.14 vs $6.06 est^[FMP], +1.3% beat. D+1 movement: -3.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $6.81 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $6.81^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $750^{[FMP target]}; high target $815^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $6.81 + CapEx < $167.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $6.81^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $167.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $555^[FMP] and median $750^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $6.61 or CapEx ≥ $167.0M** Threshold: EPS < $6.61^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $555 below SMA200 $621^[FMP], if rejection continues, $528^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $6.14 vs $6.06 beat^[FMP], stock -3.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $167.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 10.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $750 (+35.0% upside vs current $555) - **High / Low:** $815 / $623 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 12 / 12 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 4 (last quarter), 57 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. organic_sales_growth **Claim:** Northrop Grumman reported a 5% organic sales increase in Q1, driven by modernization projects. **Evidence (transcript):** "First quarter organic sales were up 5%, a great start to the year and consistent with our full year expectations." **Numbers:** 5% ### 2. defense_budget_increase **Claim:** The U.S. fiscal year 2027 defense budget request increased by 44% to $1.5 trillion, emphasizing modernization. **Evidence (transcript):** "Earlier this month, the administration submitted a $1.5 trillion defense budget request for fiscal year 2027. The budget emphasizes modernization and represents a 44% increase over current funding levels." **Numbers:** $1.5 trillion, 44% ### 3. b21_production_increase **Claim:** Northrop Grumman finalized an agreement with the Air Force to increase the annual production rate of the B-21 by 25%, enhancing the program's long-term economics. **Evidence (transcript):** "As previously announced, we finalized an agreement with the Air Force to increase the annual production rate of the B-21 by 25%. This agreement demonstrates the strong operational requirements for the platform and confidence in our team to accelerate the delivery of this generation capability for the warfighter." **Numbers:** 25% ### 4. srm_market_growth **Claim:** Northrop Grumman's weapons business is nearing 10% of total company sales and is positioned to grow at a pace well above the company average. **Evidence (transcript):** "Overall, our weapons business is nearing 10% of total company sales and is positioned to grow at a pace well above the company average." **Numbers:** 10% ### 5. missile_defense_growth **Claim:** Northrop Grumman's missile defense business accounts for nearly 10% of company sales and is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities such as Golden Dome. **Evidence (transcript):** "Demand in this area has been exceptionally strong, and today, our missile defense business accounts for nearly 10% of company sales. Northrop Grumman Corporation is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities such as Golden Dome, as well as other program areas." **Numbers:** 10% ### 6. capex_increase_b21 **Claim:** Northrop Grumman will invest an additional $200 million in 2026 to support increased production capacity on B-21, bringing 2026 capital expenditures to $1.85 billion. **Evidence (transcript):** "This includes an additional $200 million we expect to invest this year to support the increased production capacity on B-21. As a result, we now expect $1.85 billion in 2026 capital expenditures." **Numbers:** $200 million, $1.85 billion, 2026 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*