--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/nrg last_updated: 2026-05-09T11:24:37.961Z --- # NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T11:24:37.522Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $138.11 (▼ -2.64%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $29.1B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $136.95 – $189.96 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 5 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.83 (+9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $7.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | C (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $202 (+45.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 41/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## NRG Energy, Inc. — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $7.9B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.83^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** C · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 41 = MoonshotScore 41^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. 2026 Guidance Reaffirmation NRG is reaffirming its 2026 financial guidance and capital allocation, driven by strong operational performance. > "First, we delivered strong operational performance and are reaffirming our 2026 financial guidance and capital allocation." > — Robert Gaudette, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Large Load Pipeline In ERCOT, the pipeline of large load requests is reaching over 36 gigawatts by 2033, which is more than 4x today's record peak. > "The preliminary long-term load forecast filed this month shows the pipeline of large load requests reaching over 36 gigawatts in by 2033. That is more than 4x today's record peak in under a decade." > — Robert Gaudette, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Fleet Upgrade Opportunities NRG sees up to 2 gigawatts of upgrade and conversion opportunities within its existing fleet. > "Within our existing fleet, we see up to 2 gigawatts of upgrade and conversion opportunities." > — Robert Gaudette, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Texas Energy Fund Projects NRG's first Texas Energy Fund project, TH Wharton, is expected to come online in May, on time, on cost and on spec, qualifying for the TH completion bonus. > "Our first Texas Energy Fund project, TH Wharton, is expected to come online in May, on time, on cost and on spec, qualifying for the TH completion bonus." > — Robert Gaudette, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Power Demand Shift NRG is seeing a sustained shift in power demand outlook across its markets with the regulatory frameworks continuing to evolve in response. > "Second, we're seeing a sustained shift in power demand outlook across our markets with the regulatory frameworks continuing to evolve in response." > — Robert Gaudette, NRG's President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+52.2%) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (8.3%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 0.0 | weak | op margin weak (2.5%, under pressure) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.5B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 35.4 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (82%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +45.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 35 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +45.9% | | Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 2/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +45.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Weak - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 35.4 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $156 — hisse %11.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $160 — hisse %13.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **Volume (10d):** -2% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.68 | $1.74 | MISS | +3.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.75 | $2.14 | BEAT | +1.4% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.03 | $0.97 | BEAT | -0.2% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.48 | $1.78 | +-16.9% EPS | -5.8% | Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $1.48 vs $1.78 est^[FMP], +-16.9% beat. D+1 movement: -5.8%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $1.83 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.83^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $202^{[FMP target]}; high target $211^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.83 + CapEx < $317.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.83^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $317.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $138^[FMP] and median $202^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.78 or CapEx ≥ $317.0M** Threshold: EPS < $1.78^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $138 below SMA200 $160^[FMP], if rejection continues, $136^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.48 vs $1.78 beat^[FMP], stock -5.8% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $317.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 2.5%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $202 (+45.9% upside vs current $138) - **High / Low:** $211 / $159 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 14 / 2 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 6 (last quarter), 25 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. 2026_guidance_reaffirmation **Claim:** NRG is reaffirming its 2026 financial guidance and capital allocation, driven by strong operational performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "First, we delivered strong operational performance and are reaffirming our 2026 financial guidance and capital allocation." **Numbers:** 2026 ### 2. power_demand_shift **Claim:** NRG is seeing a sustained shift in power demand outlook across its markets with the regulatory frameworks continuing to evolve in response. **Evidence (transcript):** "Second, we're seeing a sustained shift in power demand outlook across our markets with the regulatory frameworks continuing to evolve in response." **Numbers:** — ### 3. large_load_pipeline **Claim:** In ERCOT, the pipeline of large load requests is reaching over 36 gigawatts by 2033, which is more than 4x today's record peak. **Evidence (transcript):** "The preliminary long-term load forecast filed this month shows the pipeline of large load requests reaching over 36 gigawatts in by 2033. That is more than 4x today's record peak in under a decade." **Numbers:** 36, 2033 ### 4. fleet_upgrade_opportunities **Claim:** NRG sees up to 2 gigawatts of upgrade and conversion opportunities within its existing fleet. **Evidence (transcript):** "Within our existing fleet, we see up to 2 gigawatts of upgrade and conversion opportunities." **Numbers:** 2 ### 5. texas_energy_fund_projects **Claim:** NRG's first Texas Energy Fund project, TH Wharton, is expected to come online in May, on time, on cost and on spec, qualifying for the TH completion bonus. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our first Texas Energy Fund project, TH Wharton, is expected to come online in May, on time, on cost and on spec, qualifying for the TH completion bonus." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*