--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/nsc last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:14:49.213Z --- # Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Q1 FY2027 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:14:48.833Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $313.44 (▲ 0.57%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $70.4B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $218.05 – $323.37 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 4 Aug | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $3.14 (-5% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $3.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $330 (+5.3% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 31/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## Norfolk Southern Corporation — Q1 FY2027 Expectations Q1 consensus: revenue $3.2B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $3.14^{[FMP est]}. 3 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 31 = MoonshotScore 31^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 3/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Fuel Price Impact Elevated fuel prices are impacting 2026 cost expectations, but the company remains confident in its cost control playbook. > "Now while the underlying cost structure remains intact, fuel prices are obviously putting upward pressure on the cost outlook. As you heard from Jason, the price surge in March alone resulted in expenses that were $40 million higher than our expectations." > — Mark George, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Safety Improvements Norfolk Southern achieved a 37% year-over-year improvement in the FRA reportable accident ratio, driven by investments in technology and training. > "Our FRA accident ratio was 1.43. This reflects a 37% improvement year-over-year in the first quarter." > — John Orr, COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Psr 2.0 Benefits The PSR 2.0 transformation and operating systems position Norfolk Southern to outperform its original cost reduction commitments and deliver sustained progress across safety, service, and financial performance. > "Taken together, our PSR 2.0 transformation and operating systems position us to continue to outperform our original cost reduction commitments and deliver sustained progress across safety, service and financial performance." > — John Orr, COO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Volume Momentum Norfolk Southern closed out the first quarter with significant volume momentum, offsetting the impact of severe winter weather. > "We closed out the first quarter with significant volume momentum, and this is offsetting a volatile February where severe winter weather impacted our customer car loadings for several weeks." > — Unknown Executive, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Jaguar Partnership Norfolk Southern is forming an innovative short line and transload partnership with Jaguar Transport Holdings, targeting growth in the Metro Atlanta market. > "Here, we highlight several dynamic factors influencing our market outlook, including the conflict in Iran, which has obviously driven energy prices sharply upward in the near term." > — Unknown Executive, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-3.6%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q1: average margin (43.1%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin healthy (29.3%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.0B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 59.7 positive momentum, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 2.0 | weak | majority sell/hold (24% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +5.3% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 60 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +5.3% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +5.3% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 59.7 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif - **50d MA:** $300 — hisse %4.5 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $291 — hisse %7.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -61% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $3.29 | $3.31 | MISS | +0.5% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.30 | $3.19 | BEAT | -1.2% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.22 | $2.76 | BEAT | +0.4% | | Q1 FY26 | $2.65 | $2.49 | +6.4% EPS | -0.3% | Q1 (April 24, 2026): EPS $2.65 vs $2.49 est^[FMP], +6.4% beat. D+1 movement: -0.3%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q1 EPS > $3.14 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $3.14^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $330^{[FMP target]}; high target $360^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $3.14 + CapEx < $382.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.14^{[FMP est]}, Q1 CapEx < $382.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $313^[FMP] and median $330^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.05 or CapEx ≥ $382.0M** Threshold: EPS < $3.05^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $313 below SMA200 $291^[FMP], if rejection continues, $248^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $2.65 vs $2.49 beat^[FMP], stock -0.3% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $382.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 29.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $330 (+5.3% upside vs current $313) - **High / Low:** $360 / $297 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 5 / 16 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 7 (last quarter), 70 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. fuel_price_impact **Claim:** Elevated fuel prices are impacting 2026 cost expectations, but the company remains confident in its cost control playbook. **Evidence (transcript):** "Now while the underlying cost structure remains intact, fuel prices are obviously putting upward pressure on the cost outlook. As you heard from Jason, the price surge in March alone resulted in expenses that were $40 million higher than our expectations." **Numbers:** $40 million ### 2. safety_improvements **Claim:** Norfolk Southern achieved a 37% year-over-year improvement in the FRA reportable accident ratio, driven by investments in technology and training. **Evidence (transcript):** "Our FRA accident ratio was 1.43. This reflects a 37% improvement year-over-year in the first quarter." **Numbers:** 1.43, 37% ### 3. psr_2.0_benefits **Claim:** The PSR 2.0 transformation and operating systems position Norfolk Southern to outperform its original cost reduction commitments and deliver sustained progress across safety, service, and financial performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "Taken together, our PSR 2.0 transformation and operating systems position us to continue to outperform our original cost reduction commitments and deliver sustained progress across safety, service and financial performance." **Numbers:** — ### 4. volume_momentum **Claim:** Norfolk Southern closed out the first quarter with significant volume momentum, offsetting the impact of severe winter weather. **Evidence (transcript):** "We closed out the first quarter with significant volume momentum, and this is offsetting a volatile February where severe winter weather impacted our customer car loadings for several weeks." **Numbers:** — ### 5. jaguar_partnership **Claim:** Norfolk Southern is forming an innovative short line and transload partnership with Jaguar Transport Holdings, targeting growth in the Metro Atlanta market. **Evidence (transcript):** "Here, we highlight several dynamic factors influencing our market outlook, including the conflict in Iran, which has obviously driven energy prices sharply upward in the near term." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*