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last_updated: 2026-05-05T21:23:44.489Z
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# Nucor Corporation (NUE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T21:23:44.151Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $232.07 (▲ 2.77%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $52.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $106.21 – $233.74 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Mon 27 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $4.12 (+58% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $10.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $230 (-1.1% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 40/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived |

## Nucor Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$10.0B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$4.12</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 1 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** A- · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 40

= MoonshotScore <strong>40</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Steel Mills Backlog Increase

Nucor's steel mills backlog increased 20% from year-end to 4.7 million tons, the highest level since Q2 2021.

> "At the end of the first quarter, our steel mills backlog was up to 4.7 million tons, a 20% increase from year-end and the highest level we've seen since the second quarter of 2021."
> — Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Shipments Growth Expectation

After achieving approximately 6% growth of shipments in 2025, Nucor expects shipments to grow by more than 5% in 2026.

> "After achieving approximately 6% growth of shipments in 2025, we expect shipments to grow by more than 5% in 2026."
> — Unknown Executive, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Import Share Decline

Import share of the U.S. finished steel market declined from over 22% in Q1 2025 to approximately 15% this quarter.

> "Import share of the U.S. finished steel market declined from over 22% in the first quarter of 2025 to approximately 15% this quarter."
> — Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Record Steel Shipments

Nucor achieved record quarterly steel mill shipments of 7 million tons.

> "At 7 million tons, this was the highest quarterly shipment volume in Nucor's history, reflecting strong execution across our 26 steel mills and growing contributions from recently completed projects."
> — Leon Topalian, Chair and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Domestic Steel Consumption Outlook

Nucor expects domestic steel consumption to be stable with overall demand remaining flat to up 2% for 2026.

> "Taken as a whole, we expect domestic steel consumption to be stable with overall demand remaining flat to up 2% for 2026."
> — Unknown Executive, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 6.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+12.3%) |
| Gross Margin | 2.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (15.8%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (11.5%) |
| Cash Runway | 5.0 | medium | FCF under pressure ($0.2B FCF vs $0.7B CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 85.2 overbought, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 7.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (73%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -1.1% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 85 |
| Klarman | bear | value · target upside -1.1% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 |
| Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -1.1% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Overvalued
- **Financial Health:** Strong
- **Margin of Safety:** Weak
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 85.2 — overbought (RSI 85.2) — geri çekilme baskısı
- **50d MA:** $184 — hisse %26.1 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $162 — hisse %43.6 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -23%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $2.60 | $2.55 | BEAT | -2.7% |
| Q3 FY25 | $2.63 | $2.18 | BEAT | +5.4% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.73 | $1.91 | MISS | -2.3% |
| Q1 FY26 | $3.23 | $2.82 | +14.5% EPS | +4.7% |

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $3.23 vs $2.82 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +14.5% beat. D+1 movement: +4.7%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $4.12 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $4.12<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $230<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $245<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $4.12 + CapEx < $661.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $4.12<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $661.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $232<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $230<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $4.00 or CapEx ≥ $661.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $4.00<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $232 below SMA200 $162<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $137<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $3.23 vs $2.82 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +4.7% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $661.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 11.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $230 (-1.1% upside vs current $232)
- **High / Low:** $245 / $180
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 11 / 3 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 5 (last quarter), 34 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. record_steel_shipments

**Claim:** Nucor achieved record quarterly steel mill shipments of 7 million tons.

**Evidence (transcript):** "At 7 million tons, this was the highest quarterly shipment volume in Nucor's history, reflecting strong execution across our 26 steel mills and growing contributions from recently completed projects."

**Numbers:** 7 million, 26

### 2. steel_mills_backlog_increase

**Claim:** Nucor's steel mills backlog increased 20% from year-end to 4.7 million tons, the highest level since Q2 2021.

**Evidence (transcript):** "At the end of the first quarter, our steel mills backlog was up to 4.7 million tons, a 20% increase from year-end and the highest level we've seen since the second quarter of 2021."

**Numbers:** 4.7 million, 20%, 2021

### 3. import_share_decline

**Claim:** Import share of the U.S. finished steel market declined from over 22% in Q1 2025 to approximately 15% this quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Import share of the U.S. finished steel market declined from over 22% in the first quarter of 2025 to approximately 15% this quarter."

**Numbers:** 22%, 15%, 2025

### 4. shipments_growth_expectation

**Claim:** After achieving approximately 6% growth of shipments in 2025, Nucor expects shipments to grow by more than 5% in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "After achieving approximately 6% growth of shipments in 2025, we expect shipments to grow by more than 5% in 2026."

**Numbers:** 6%, 2025, 5%, 2026

### 5. domestic_steel_consumption_outlook

**Claim:** Nucor expects domestic steel consumption to be stable with overall demand remaining flat to up 2% for 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Taken as a whole, we expect domestic steel consumption to be stable with overall demand remaining flat to up 2% for 2026."

**Numbers:** 2%, 2026

### 6. capex_moderation_and_fcf_increase

**Claim:** Nucor's capital expenditures are moderating while cash from operations is moving up, producing a meaningful increase in free cash flow for the quarter, and this trend is expected to continue.

**Evidence (transcript):** "And as our CapEx is trending down, our cash from operations is moving up. That combination produced a meaningful increase in free cash flow for the quarter, and we expect this trend to continue."

**Numbers:** —


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*