--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/nvda last_updated: 2026-07-02T06:12:21.229Z --- # NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-20 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-07-02T06:12:19.830Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $198.45 (▼ -0.56%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $4.82T | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $110.82 – $216.83 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 20 May | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.76 (+117% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $78.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $275 (+38.6% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 81/100 | derived | | Council | 5/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived | ## NVIDIA Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $78.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.76^{[FMP est]}. 8 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** A- · **Stance:** BUY · **Council:** 5/6 · **Moonshot:** 81 = MoonshotScore 81^{[multi-pillar formula]} + Council 5/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Networking Revenue Growth Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink. > "Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink." > — Colette Kress, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Data Center Growth Data center revenue grew 56% year over year and also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue. > "Data center revenue grew 56% year over year. Data center revenue also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue." > — Colette Kress, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Blackwell Platform Growth NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%. > "NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%." > — Colette Kress, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. H20 Shipments China If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3. > "If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3." > — Colette Kress, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Ai Infrastructure Spending This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years. > "This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years." > — Colette Kress, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+54.6%) | | Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q4: very high margin (75.0%, software/cloud territory) | | Operating Leverage | 7.0 | strong | op margin very strong (65.0%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($34.9B, 27.2× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (8.6%) | | Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 53.0 balanced, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 9.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (93%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +38.6% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 53 | | Klarman | bull | value · target upside +38.6% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +38.6% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Undervalued - **Financial Health:** Strong - **Margin of Safety:** Strong - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 53.0 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $187 — hisse %6.0 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $184 — hisse %7.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -15% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY26 | $0.81 | $0.74 | BEAT | +3.2% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.05 | $1.01 | BEAT | -0.8% | | Q3 FY26 | $1.30 | $1.26 | BEAT | -3.2% | | Q4 FY26 | $1.62 | $1.54 | +5.2% EPS | -5.5% | Q2 (August 27, 2025): EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 est^[FMP], +5.2% beat. D+1 movement: -5.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.76 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.76^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $275^{[FMP target]}; high target $400^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.76 + CapEx < $1.3B** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.76^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $1.3B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $198^[FMP] and median $275^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.71 or CapEx ≥ $1.3B** Threshold: EPS < $1.71^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $198 below SMA200 $184^[FMP], if rejection continues, $156^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 beat^[FMP], stock -5.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q4 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $1.3B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 65.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $275 (+38.6% upside vs current $198) - **High / Low:** $400 / $140 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 56 / 3 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 11 (last quarter), 291 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. data_center_growth **Claim:** Data center revenue grew 56% year over year and also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue. **Evidence (transcript):** "Data center revenue grew 56% year over year. Data center revenue also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue." **Numbers:** %56, $4 billion ### 2. blackwell_platform_growth **Claim:** NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%. **Evidence (transcript):** "NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%." **Numbers:** %17 ### 3. h20_shipments_china **Claim:** If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3. **Evidence (transcript):** "If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3." **Numbers:** $2, $5 billion, Q3 ### 4. ai_infrastructure_spending **Claim:** This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years. **Evidence (transcript):** "This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years." **Numbers:** $600 billion ### 5. networking_revenue_growth **Claim:** Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink. **Evidence (transcript):** "Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink." **Numbers:** $7.3 billion, %46, %98 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-07-02), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*