--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/nxpi last_updated: 2026-05-05T20:44:59.509Z --- # NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T20:44:59.236Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $292.42 (▲ 0.57%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $73.8B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $180.63 – $299.80 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Mon 27 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $3.48 (+28% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $3.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $240 (-17.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 57/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## NXP Semiconductors N.V. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $3.4B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $3.48^{[FMP est]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 57 = MoonshotScore 57^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Data Center Revenue Growth Revenue related to data center applications was about $200 million in 2025, and we believe this business will be north of $500 million this year. > "In 2025, revenue related to data center applications was about $200 million, and it was reflected evenly in both our industrial & IoT and communication infrastructure end markets. Based on our other programs now ramping, we believe this business will be north of $500 million this year with a similar end market split." > — Rafael Sotomayor, NXP's President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Industrial Iot Growth Growth in industrial & IoT revenue was driven by our newer industrial processing solutions, including i.MX, RT and MCX, together these products grew about 75% year-over-year. > "Growth was driven by our newer industrial processing solutions, including i.MX, RT and MCX. Together, these products grew about 75% year-over-year and contributed nearly half the end market growth versus Q1 2025." > — Rafael Sotomayor, NXP's President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Q2 Revenue Guidance NXP is guiding second quarter revenue to $3.45 billion, up 18% year-over-year. > "We are guiding second quarter revenue to $3.45 billion, up 18% year-over-year and up 8% sequentially." > — Rafael Sotomayor, NXP's President and CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Gross Margin Expansion Over time, this is expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points of structural gross margin expansion once the facility is fully operational in 2028. > "Over time, this is expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points of structural gross margin expansion once the facility is fully operational in 2028." > — Bill Betz, our CFO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Fy27 Financial Commitments In closing, we remain confident in delivering our 2027 financial commitments which implies double-digit revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027, gross margin expanding towards 60-plus percent and continued discipline in our operating expenses. > "In closing, we remain confident in delivering our 2027 financial commitments which implies double-digit revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027, gross margin expanding towards 60-plus percent and continued discipline in our operating expenses." > — Bill Betz, our CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+8.7%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (56.2%) | | Operating Leverage | 5.0 | medium | op margin very strong (47.3%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.7B, 9.0× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | high R&D intensity (18.3%, aggressive) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 79.6 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (78%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -17.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 80 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -17.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -17.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 79.6 — overbought (RSI 79.6) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $217 — hisse %34.8 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $221 — hisse %32.3 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -6% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.72 | $2.68 | BEAT | -0.1% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.11 | $3.12 | MISS | -3.9% | | Q4 FY25 | $3.35 | $3.31 | BEAT | -4.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $3.05 | $2.98 | +2.3% EPS | +25.5% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $3.05 vs $2.98 est^[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +25.5%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $3.48 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $3.48^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $240^{[FMP target]}; high target $295^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $3.48 + CapEx < $79.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $3.48^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $79.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $292^[FMP] and median $240^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $3.38 or CapEx ≥ $79.0M** Threshold: EPS < $3.38^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $292 below SMA200 $221^[FMP], if rejection continues, $188^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $3.05 vs $2.98 beat^[FMP], stock +25.5% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $79.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 47.3%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $240 (-17.9% upside vs current $292) - **High / Low:** $295 / $188 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 25 / 6 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 3 (last quarter), 87 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. automotive_growth_drivers **Claim:** Automotive growth is supported by accelerating customer software-defined vehicle programs, improved electrification trends, and continued momentum in radar and connectivity. **Evidence (transcript):** "During the quarter, the growth was driven primarily by accelerating customer software-defined vehicle programs, improved electrification trends and continued momentum in radar and connectivity." **Numbers:** — ### 2. industrial_iot_growth **Claim:** Growth in industrial & IoT revenue was driven by our newer industrial processing solutions, including i.MX, RT and MCX, together these products grew about 75% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "Growth was driven by our newer industrial processing solutions, including i.MX, RT and MCX. Together, these products grew about 75% year-over-year and contributed nearly half the end market growth versus Q1 2025." **Numbers:** 75%, Q1 2025 ### 3. data_center_revenue_growth **Claim:** Revenue related to data center applications was about $200 million in 2025, and we believe this business will be north of $500 million this year. **Evidence (transcript):** "In 2025, revenue related to data center applications was about $200 million, and it was reflected evenly in both our industrial & IoT and communication infrastructure end markets. Based on our other programs now ramping, we believe this business will be north of $500 million this year with a similar end market split." **Numbers:** 200 million, 2025, 500 million ### 4. q2_revenue_guidance **Claim:** NXP is guiding second quarter revenue to $3.45 billion, up 18% year-over-year. **Evidence (transcript):** "We are guiding second quarter revenue to $3.45 billion, up 18% year-over-year and up 8% sequentially." **Numbers:** 3.45 billion, 18%, 8% ### 5. gross_margin_expansion **Claim:** Over time, this is expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points of structural gross margin expansion once the facility is fully operational in 2028. **Evidence (transcript):** "Over time, this is expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points of structural gross margin expansion once the facility is fully operational in 2028." **Numbers:** 200, 2028 ### 6. fy27_financial_commitments **Claim:** In closing, we remain confident in delivering our 2027 financial commitments which implies double-digit revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027, gross margin expanding towards 60-plus percent and continued discipline in our operating expenses. **Evidence (transcript):** "In closing, we remain confident in delivering our 2027 financial commitments which implies double-digit revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027, gross margin expanding towards 60-plus percent and continued discipline in our operating expenses." **Numbers:** 2027, 2026, 2027, 60 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*