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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/odfl
last_updated: 2026-05-05T22:07:09.793Z
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# Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview
> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-05T22:07:09.443Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.
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## Quick Summary
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $196.08 (▲ 2.03%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $40.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $126.01 – $233.79 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $1.41 (+11% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $1.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 3/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $218 (+10.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 37/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |
## Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations
Q4 consensus: revenue $1.5B[FMP est], EPS $1.41[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
## Quick Take
**Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 37
= MoonshotScore 37[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
## Watchlist (4 metrics)
### 1. Operating Ratio Q2 Guidance
The company expects an operating ratio in the normal sequential range (300 to 350 basis point improvement) in the second quarter, assuming that it sees some sequential improvement in its volumes.
> "The 10-year average change for the operating ratio was a 300 to 350 basis point improvement from the first to the second quarter. And we're comfortable with that range in the second quarter this year, assuming that we do see some sequential improvement in our volumes from here."
> — Adam Satterfield, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026
### 2. Capital Expenditures 2026
The company plans to invest an additional $265 million in 2026.
> "This is why, despite a challenging operating environment, we invested nearly $2 billion capital expenditures over the past 3 years and why we plan to invest an additional $265 million in 2026."
> — Marty Freeman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026
### 3. Terminal Capacity
The company's terminal capacity being north of 35% presents an opportunity to improve the operating ratio with sequential volume improvement.
> "Yes. We're still a little north of 35% because our volumes are still down on a year-over-year basis, and obviously, this is the slower time of the year in the first quarter. But that's something that we continue to see as an opportunity and will drive part of that operating ratio improvement, is we can continue to see sequential volume improvement and then leveraging those fixed costs, those investments that we've made and the depreciation headwind that we've been facing."
> — Adam Satterfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026
### 4. Weight Per Shipment Increase
In April, there has been an increase in weight per shipment on a year-over-year basis of a little over 1%, which is a leading indicator of an improving demand environment.
> "And in fact, in April, our weight per shipment is up on a year-over-year basis, a little over 1%. So that's usually a leading indicator of an improving demand environment."
> — Adam Satterfield, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026
## MoonshotScore Pillars
| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-5.2%, contraction) |
| Gross Margin | 3.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (27.7%, capital-intensive or commodity) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (23.8%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.3B, 5.8× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 41.1 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (36% buy) |
**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.
## Council (7-Lens)
| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +10.9% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 41 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +10.9% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +10.9% |
**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.
## Munger Lens
- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy
**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.
## Technical Levels
- **RSI(14):** 41.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az
- **50d MA:** $201 — hisse %2.5 altında — kısa vadeli direnç
- **200d MA:** $166 — hisse %18.0 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **Volume (10d):** -21%
## Past Performance (4 Quarters)
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $1.27 | $1.28 | MISS | +1.9% |
| Q3 FY25 | $1.28 | $1.22 | BEAT | +0.8% |
| Q4 FY25 | $1.09 | $1.06 | BEAT | -3.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $1.14 | $1.05 | +8.6% EPS | +1.5% |
Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.14 vs $1.05 est[FMP], +8.6% beat. D+1 movement: +1.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
## 3 Scenarios
### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $1.41 + CapEx discipline**
Threshold: EPS > $1.41[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $218[FMP target]; high target $240[FMP] upper bound.
### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $1.41 + CapEx < $45.8M**
Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.41[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $45.8M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $196[FMP] and median $218[FMP].
### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $1.37 or CapEx ≥ $45.8M**
Threshold: EPS < $1.37[FMP est×0.97].
Target: Current $196 below SMA200 $166[FMP], if rejection continues, $141[derived] support activates.
## Risk Notes
### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $1.14 vs $1.05 beat[FMP], stock +1.5% D+1[FMP].
### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26
### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $45.8M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 23.8%[FMP op margin] — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
## Wall Street Consensus
- **Median target:** $218 (+10.9% upside vs current $196)
- **High / Low:** $240 / $138
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 9 / 13 / 3
- **Analyst count:** 12 (last quarter), 87 all-time
## Additional Transcript Insights
### 1. LTL_volume_growth
**Claim:** The company's LTL volumes improved during the quarter, with strong sequential tonnage growth in February and March.
**Evidence (transcript):** "While our first quarter revenue declined on a year-over-year basis, demand for our service improved as the quarter progressed. This contributed to the acceleration in our LTL volumes during the quarter, with strong sequential tonnage growth in February and March."
**Numbers:** —
### 2. capital_expenditures_2026
**Claim:** The company plans to invest an additional $265 million in 2026.
**Evidence (transcript):** "This is why, despite a challenging operating environment, we invested nearly $2 billion capital expenditures over the past 3 years and why we plan to invest an additional $265 million in 2026."
**Numbers:** $265 million, $2 billion, 3
### 3. operating_ratio_Q2_guidance
**Claim:** The company expects an operating ratio in the normal sequential range (300 to 350 basis point improvement) in the second quarter, assuming that it sees some sequential improvement in its volumes.
**Evidence (transcript):** "The 10-year average change for the operating ratio was a 300 to 350 basis point improvement from the first to the second quarter. And we're comfortable with that range in the second quarter this year, assuming that we do see some sequential improvement in our volumes from here."
**Numbers:** 300, 350
### 4. terminal_capacity
**Claim:** The company's terminal capacity being north of 35% presents an opportunity to improve the operating ratio with sequential volume improvement.
**Evidence (transcript):** "Yes. We're still a little north of 35% because our volumes are still down on a year-over-year basis, and obviously, this is the slower time of the year in the first quarter. But that's something that we continue to see as an opportunity and will drive part of that operating ratio improvement, is we can continue to see sequential volume improvement and then leveraging those fixed costs, those investments that we've made and the depreciation headwind that we've been facing."
**Numbers:** 35%
### 5. weight_per_shipment_increase
**Claim:** In April, there has been an increase in weight per shipment on a year-over-year basis of a little over 1%, which is a leading indicator of an improving demand environment.
**Evidence (transcript):** "And in fact, in April, our weight per shipment is up on a year-over-year basis, a little over 1%. So that's usually a leading indicator of an improving demand environment."
**Numbers:** 1%
### 6. truckload_to_LTL_shift
**Claim:** Due to the tightening in the truckload market, some customers' supply chain strategies are reverting back to moving more freight by LTL.
**Evidence (transcript):** "But we started hearing late last year, I think a lot of shippers were anticipating that this environment would finally turn this year. And I can think to a couple of large accounts that had mentioned part of their supply chain strategies the last year or so have been taking advantage of that market, consolidating some loads and whatnot and that they were going to revert back to moving more freight by LTL."
**Numbers:** —
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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-05), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*