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canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/on
last_updated: 2026-08-24T06:16:50.163Z
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# ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-08-24T06:16:49.714Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $74.21 (▼ -0.67%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $28.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $44.56 – $134.92 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Mon 2 Nov | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $0.90 (+43% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $1.7B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $110 (+48.2% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| Historical V1 score | 45/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/7 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Undervalued | derived |

## ON Semiconductor Corporation — Q3 FY2026 Expectations

Q3 consensus: revenue **$1.7B**[FMP est], EPS **$0.90**[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

## Quick Take

**Score:** B- · **Council:** 3/7 · **Historical V1 score:** 45

FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: 6 transactions[FMP Form 4].

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Q3 Gross Margin Guidance

The company expects its non-GAAP gross margin to be between 40% and 42% in the third quarter, benefiting from increasing utilization.

> "Our non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be between 40% and 42%, which includes share-based compensation of $8 million. This represents a significant step-up function increase as we realize the benefit of increasing utilization since the start of the year."
> — Thad Trent, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Automotive China Sic Growth

Driven by market share gains in China EVs, the company expects silicon carbide revenue in that market to increase between 60% and 70% year-over-year.

> "With our market share gains in China EVs, we now expect silicon carbide revenue in that market to increase between 60% and 70% year-over-year as our market share gains continue and programs ramp across existing platforms and newer vehicle launches."
> — Hassane El-Khoury, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Q3 Revenue Guidance

onsemi anticipates its third-quarter revenue to be in the range of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion.

> "We anticipate Q3 revenue will be in the range of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion."
> — Thad Trent, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Sic Ai Data Center Growth

The company anticipates its silicon carbide revenue in AI data center applications to grow nearly 60% year-over-year in 2026.

> "In 2026, we expect our silicon carbide revenue in AI data center applications to grow nearly 60% year-over-year."
> — Hassane El-Khoury, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 5. Ai Data Center 2026 Growth

onsemi expects AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026, highlighting it as their fastest-growing market segment.

> "AI data center remains our fastest-growing market. We now expect AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026, driven by stronger demand, further accelerated by broader customer wins and expanding content across the entire Power Tree."
> — Hassane El-Khoury, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 6. Synaptics Acquisition

onsemi announced an agreement to acquire Synaptics, expecting the combination to close in mid-2027, complementing its strengths in power, sensing, and control.

> "As I wrap up, I want to highlight our announced agreement to acquire Synaptics. Beyond the compelling strategic and financial rationale, we are excited about the opportunities this combination creates for all shareholders. Synaptics' market-leading connected compute capabilities complement our strength in power, sensing and control at accretive gross margins. Our combination would leverage our manufacturing scale, global sales channel and mass market engine to drive growth across our highly complementary portfolio. We expect the transaction to close in mid-2027, subject to customary approvals."
> — Hassane El-Khoury, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## Historical V1 earnings-model pillars (not the current MoonshotScore)

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 2.0 | weak | Q2 vs Q3: moderate growth (+3.4%) |
| Gross Margin | 4.0 | medium | Q2: average margin (38.4%) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (16.1%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.4B, 12.4× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 7.0 | strong | balanced R&D investment (9.0%) |
| Insider Activity | 3.0 | weak | Q2 FY26: large net selling (-$12.1M, watch) |
| Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 35.5 weak momentum, 50d below |
| News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (42% buy) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +48.2% |
| Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 35 |
| Englander | neutral | multi-strat · EliteSiC +100% YoY |
| Klarman | bull | value · target upside +48.2% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 3/5 |
| Munger | bull | valuation · target upside +48.2% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Undervalued
- **Financial Health:** Weak
- **Margin of Safety:** Strong
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 35.5
- **50d MA:** $93
- **200d MA:** $77
- **Volume (10d):** -36%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Next-day price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $0.63 | $0.59 | BEAT | -4.3% |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.64 | $0.62 | BEAT | +3.5% |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.64 | $0.61 | BEAT | +0.6% |
| Q2 FY26 | $0.74 | $0.71 | BEAT | +0.5% |

Q2 FY26 (August 4, 2026) EPS $0.74 vs $0.71 estimate: beat (+4.2%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +0.5%[FMP D+1].

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q3 EPS > $0.90 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $0.90[FMP est].

Target: Break above median target $110[FMP target]; high target $150[FMP] upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $0.90 + CapEx < $34.3M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.90[FMP est], Q2 CapEx < $34.3M[FMP].

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $74[FMP] and median $110[FMP].

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $0.87 or CapEx ≥ $34.3M**

Threshold: EPS < $0.87[FMP est×0.97].

Target: Current $74 below SMA200 $77[FMP], if rejection continues, $66[derived] support activates.<br>Current price $74 — below SMA200 $77 [FMP].

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q2 FY26 EPS $0.74 vs $0.71 estimate: beat (+4.2%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +0.5%[FMP D+1].

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 Q2 FY26: 6 transactions, net -$12.05M[FMP Form 4]. Not absolutely large within $28.9B[FMP].

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thad Trent (Exec VP & CFO) | Satış | -$2.79M | 2026-04-27 |
| Thad Trent (Exec VP & CFO) | Satış | -$3.00M | 2026-04-27 |
| Thad Trent (Exec VP & CFO) | Satış | -$2.40M | 2026-04-17 |
| GOPALSWAMY SUDHIR (Group President, AMG & ISG) | Satış | -$358.7K | 2026-03-16 |
| KEETON SIMON (Group President, PSG) | Satış | -$328.9K | 2026-02-18 |
| KEETON SIMON (Group President, PSG) | Satış | -$3.18M | 2026-02-18 |

**Net:** -$12.05M (6 transactions · 6 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $34.3M[FMP cashflow]. Thad Trent Q2 transcript: "We expect capital expenditures in the range of $40 million to $50 million, and we now expect capital expenditure for the year to be below 5% of revenue.". Q2 op margin 16.1%[FMP op margin] — this level in Q2 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus


| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median target | $110 (+48.2% upside vs current $74) |
| High / Low | $150 / $40 |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 13 / 18 / 0 |
| Price targets | 13 (last quarter), 107 all-time |
| Ratings | 31 |

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. ai_data_center_2026_growth

**Claim:** onsemi expects AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026, highlighting it as their fastest-growing market segment.

**Evidence (transcript):** "AI data center remains our fastest-growing market. We now expect AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026, driven by stronger demand, further accelerated by broader customer wins and expanding content across the entire Power Tree."

**Numbers:** 2026

### 2. sic_ai_data_center_growth

**Claim:** The company anticipates its silicon carbide revenue in AI data center applications to grow nearly 60% year-over-year in 2026.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In 2026, we expect our silicon carbide revenue in AI data center applications to grow nearly 60% year-over-year."

**Numbers:** 2026, 60%

### 3. automotive_china_sic_growth

**Claim:** Driven by market share gains in China EVs, the company expects silicon carbide revenue in that market to increase between 60% and 70% year-over-year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "With our market share gains in China EVs, we now expect silicon carbide revenue in that market to increase between 60% and 70% year-over-year as our market share gains continue and programs ramp across existing platforms and newer vehicle launches."

**Numbers:** 60%, 70%

### 4. q3_revenue_guidance

**Claim:** onsemi anticipates its third-quarter revenue to be in the range of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We anticipate Q3 revenue will be in the range of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion."

**Numbers:** Q3, $1.65 billion, $1.75 billion

### 5. q3_gross_margin_guidance

**Claim:** The company expects its non-GAAP gross margin to be between 40% and 42% in the third quarter, benefiting from increasing utilization.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be between 40% and 42%, which includes share-based compensation of $8 million. This represents a significant step-up function increase as we realize the benefit of increasing utilization since the start of the year."

**Numbers:** 40%, 42%, $8 million

### 6. synaptics_acquisition

**Claim:** onsemi announced an agreement to acquire Synaptics, expecting the combination to close in mid-2027, complementing its strengths in power, sensing, and control.

**Evidence (transcript):** "As I wrap up, I want to highlight our announced agreement to acquire Synaptics. Beyond the compelling strategic and financial rationale, we are excited about the opportunities this combination creates for all shareholders. Synaptics' market-leading connected compute capabilities complement our strength in power, sensing and control at accretive gross margins. Our combination would leverage our manufacturing scale, global sales channel and mass market engine to drive growth across our highly complementary portfolio. We expect the transaction to close in mid-2027, subject to customary approvals."

**Numbers:** 2027


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-08-24), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*