--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/orcl last_updated: 2026-07-03T06:13:18.876Z --- # Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-10 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings. > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-07-03T06:13:17.659Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $244.54 (▼ -1.45%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $703.3B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $134.57 – $345.72 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Wed 10 Jun | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.96 (+15% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $19.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $240 (-1.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Overvalued | derived | ## Oracle Corporation — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $19.1B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.96^{[FMP est]}. Doug Caring lowered Cloud infrastructure guidance to 37-41% (previous 66%) in the Q2 earnings call^{[Doug Caring Q-prev transcript]}. 2 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** SELL · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 47 = MoonshotScore 47^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Cloud infrastructure guidance reduction from 66% → 37-41%^{[Doug Caring Q-prev transcript]} and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)^{[FMP Form 4]} prevented an A- grade. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Multi Cloud Database Growth Oracle's multi-cloud database consumption surged 817% year-over-year, with the company launching new universal credits and channel reseller programs enabling customers to use Oracle database services in any cloud with consistent pricing and flexibility. > "Multi-cloud database consumption has increased 817% year over year. We launched two important programs this quarter for multi-cloud. The first is multi-cloud universal credits, which enables customers to commit once to Oracle database services and use it anywhere in any cloud with the same price and flexibility." > — Clay McGork, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Total Cloud Revenue Acceleration Oracle's total cloud revenue significantly accelerated, growing 33% to $8 billion compared to last year's 24% growth rate, and now accounts for half of the company's overall revenue. > "Total cloud revenue, which includes both applications and infrastructure, was up 33% at $8 billion. Representing a significant acceleration from the 24% growth rate reported last year. Cloud revenue now accounts for half of Oracle's overall revenue." > — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Rpo Growth Diversification Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 433% year-over-year to $523.3 billion, with contracts signed with companies like Meta and NVIDIA diversifying the customer backlog. > "Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, ended the quarter at $523.3 billion, up 433% from last year and up $68 billion since August. Driven by contracts signed with Meta, NVIDIA, and others as we continue to diversify our customer backlog." > — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Fy26 Capex Increase Oracle increased its FY2026 CapEx forecast by $15 billion compared to its Q1 projections to support accelerating growth and quickly monetize new RPO. > "However, given the added RPO this quarter, can be monetized quickly starting next year, we now expect fiscal 2026 CapEx will be about $15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1." > — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Oci Gpu Demand Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 66% to $4.1 billion, with GPU-related revenue soaring 177%, demonstrating significantly faster growth than competitors. > "Cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion, up 66% with GPU-related revenue growing 177%. Oracle's cloud infrastructure businesses continue to grow much faster than our competitors." > — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 4.0 | medium | Q3 vs Q4: healthy growth (+8.1%) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q3: high margin (62.2%) | | Operating Leverage | 3.0 | weak | op margin very strong (32.8%, scale leverage) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-11.5B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 5.0 | medium | high R&D intensity (16.1%, aggressive) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 77.7 overbought, 50d above | | News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (84%) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | neutral | macro · target upside -1.9% | | Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above | | Jim Simons | bear | quant · RSI 78 | | Klarman | bear | value · target upside -1.9% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | bear | valuation · target upside -1.9% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Overvalued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 77.7 — overbought (RSI 77.7) — geri çekilme baskısı - **50d MA:** $175 — hisse %39.9 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek - **200d MA:** $207 — hisse %18.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** +23% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $1.70 | $1.64 | BEAT | +13.3% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.47 | $1.48 | MISS | +35.9% | | Q2 FY26 | $2.26 | $1.64 | BEAT | -10.8% | | Q3 FY26 | $1.79 | $1.70 | +5.3% EPS | +9.2% | Q2 (December 10, 2025): EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 est^[FMP], +5.3% beat. D+1 movement: +9.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure ≥ 41%** Threshold: EPS > $1.96^{[FMP est]} and Cloud infrastructure ≥ 41%^{[Doug Caring transcript]}. Target: Break above median target $240^{[FMP target]}; high target $400^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure 37-41% + CapEx promise kept** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.96^{[FMP est]}, Cloud infrastructure 37-41%, Q4 CapEx < $18.6B^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $245^[FMP] and median $240^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.90 or Cloud infrastructure < 35% or CapEx ≥ $18.6B** Threshold: EPS < $1.90^{[FMP est×0.97]} or Cloud infrastructure < 35%^{[Doug Caring guidance lower minus 2]}. Target: Current $245 below SMA200 $207^[FMP], if rejection continues, $176^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q2: EPS $1.79 vs $1.70 beat^[FMP], stock +9.2% D+1^[FMP]. Doug Caring Q2 transcript: "total cloud revenue is expected to grow from 37% to 41% in constant currency"^{[Doug Caring]}. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q3 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q2 CapEx $18.6B^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q2 op margin 32.8%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $240 (-1.9% upside vs current $245) - **High / Low:** $400 / $160 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 36 / 6 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 14 (last quarter), 182 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. rpo_growth_diversification **Claim:** Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 433% year-over-year to $523.3 billion, with contracts signed with companies like Meta and NVIDIA diversifying the customer backlog. **Evidence (transcript):** "Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, ended the quarter at $523.3 billion, up 433% from last year and up $68 billion since August. Driven by contracts signed with Meta, NVIDIA, and others as we continue to diversify our customer backlog." **Numbers:** $523.3 billion, %433, $68 billion ### 2. total_cloud_revenue_acceleration **Claim:** Oracle's total cloud revenue significantly accelerated, growing 33% to $8 billion compared to last year's 24% growth rate, and now accounts for half of the company's overall revenue. **Evidence (transcript):** "Total cloud revenue, which includes both applications and infrastructure, was up 33% at $8 billion. Representing a significant acceleration from the 24% growth rate reported last year. Cloud revenue now accounts for half of Oracle's overall revenue." **Numbers:** %33, $8 billion, %24, half ### 3. oci_gpu_demand **Claim:** Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 66% to $4.1 billion, with GPU-related revenue soaring 177%, demonstrating significantly faster growth than competitors. **Evidence (transcript):** "Cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion, up 66% with GPU-related revenue growing 177%. Oracle's cloud infrastructure businesses continue to grow much faster than our competitors." **Numbers:** $4.1 billion, %66, %177 ### 4. fy26_capex_increase **Claim:** Oracle increased its FY2026 CapEx forecast by $15 billion compared to its Q1 projections to support accelerating growth and quickly monetize new RPO. **Evidence (transcript):** "However, given the added RPO this quarter, can be monetized quickly starting next year, we now expect fiscal 2026 CapEx will be about $15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1." **Numbers:** 2026, $15 billion, Q1 ### 5. ai_data_platform_integration **Claim:** Oracle is integrating its new AI database and AI data platform with its applications to enable the latest AI models to perform multi-step reasoning on private enterprise data, creating significant value for customers. **Evidence (transcript):** "Now with the development of the Oracle AI database, and the Oracle AI data platform, we're bringing all three layers of our software stack together to solve another very important problem. Enabling the latest and most powerful AI models to do multistep reasoning on all your private enterprise data while keeping that data private and secure." **Numbers:** — ### 6. multi_cloud_database_growth **Claim:** Oracle's multi-cloud database consumption surged 817% year-over-year, with the company launching new universal credits and channel reseller programs enabling customers to use Oracle database services in any cloud with consistent pricing and flexibility. **Evidence (transcript):** "Multi-cloud database consumption has increased 817% year over year. We launched two important programs this quarter for multi-cloud. The first is multi-cloud universal credits, which enables customers to commit once to Oracle database services and use it anywhere in any cloud with the same price and flexibility." **Numbers:** %817 --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-07-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*