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last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:38:53.258Z
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# O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-04T10:38:52.257Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $96.65 (▼ -2.77%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $80.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $86.77 – $108.72 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Wed 29 Jul | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $0.86 (+10% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $4.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $110 (+13.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$4.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$0.86</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 1 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** C+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 50

= MoonshotScore <strong>50</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (5 metrics)

### 1. Capex 2026

O'Reilly expects a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.

> "Capital expenditures for the first quarter were $244 million, and we still expect a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion."
> — Brent Kirby, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Eps Guidance Increase

O'Reilly is increasing its full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25.

> "Before I wrap up, I would like to note that we are increasing our full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25."
> — Brad Beckham, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Full Year Guidance

O'Reilly has maintained its full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%.

> "We have maintained our full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%."
> — Brad Beckham, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Comp Sales Growth

O'Reilly surpassed expectations with an 8.1% increase in comparable store sales in the first quarter.

> "Our comp growth of 8.1% solidly surpassed our expectations, and we were pleased to see above-planned contributions from both sides of our business in the quarter."
> — Brad Beckham, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Inventory Per Store

Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year.

> "Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year and up 0.5% from the end of the year."
> — Brent Kirby, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.8%, below threshold) |
| Gross Margin | 5.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (51.5%) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (18.5%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.8B, 3.2× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 59.3 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (81%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +13.8% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 59 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +13.8% |
| Buffett | neutral | quality · ROE score 1/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +13.8% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Weak
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 59.3 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $93 — hisse %4.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $97 — hisse %0.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** +32%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $0.78 | $0.78 | MISS | +2.9% |
| Q3 FY25 | $0.85 | $0.83 | BEAT | -2.9% |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.71 | $0.73 | MISS | -4.0% |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.72 | $0.72 | +0.1% EPS | +8.4% |

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $0.72 vs $0.72 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +0.1% beat. D+1 movement: +8.4%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $0.86 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $0.86<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $110<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $115<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $0.86 + CapEx < $244.4M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.86<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $244.4M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $97<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $110<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $0.84 or CapEx ≥ $244.4M**

Threshold: EPS < $0.84<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $97<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup> below SMA200 $97, if rejection continues, $83<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q1: EPS $0.72 vs $0.72 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock +8.4% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $244.4M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q1 op margin 18.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $110 (+13.8% upside vs current $97)
- **High / Low:** $115 / $105
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 22 / 4 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 13 (last quarter), 49 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. comp_sales_growth

**Claim:** O'Reilly surpassed expectations with an 8.1% increase in comparable store sales in the first quarter.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our comp growth of 8.1% solidly surpassed our expectations, and we were pleased to see above-planned contributions from both sides of our business in the quarter."

**Numbers:** 8.1%

### 2. professional_comps

**Claim:** O'Reilly's professional business posted double-digit comps for the third straight quarter with its first quarter results.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Our professional business continues to be the larger contributor to our total comp results, with our first quarter results marking the third straight quarter we have posted double-digit professional comps."

**Numbers:** —

### 3. full_year_guidance

**Claim:** O'Reilly has maintained its full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%.

**Evidence (transcript):** "We have maintained our full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%."

**Numbers:** 3%, 5%

### 4. eps_guidance_increase

**Claim:** O'Reilly is increasing its full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Before I wrap up, I would like to note that we are increasing our full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25."

**Numbers:** 3.15, 3.25

### 5. capex_2026

**Claim:** O'Reilly expects a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Capital expenditures for the first quarter were $244 million, and we still expect a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion."

**Numbers:** 244, 1.3, 1.4

### 6. inventory_per_store

**Claim:** Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year and up 0.5% from the end of the year."

**Numbers:** 874, 8.5%, 0.5%


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-04), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*