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# Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

> **[stale-preview-note]** Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-02 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

> This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:37:21.592Z. Educational tool, not investment advice.

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## Quick Summary

| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $181.09 (▲ 0.99%) | fmp:quote |
| Market Cap | $123.4B | fmp:profile |
| 52w range | $139.57 – $223.61 | fmp:quote |
| Earnings | Tue 2 Jun | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS estimate | $0.81 (+1% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Revenue estimate | $2.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| Beat streak | 5/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| Analyst median target | $200 (+10.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 63/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived |

## Palo Alto Networks, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations

Q4 consensus: revenue <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$2.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>, EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$0.81</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>. 5 consecutive quarters of beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>.

## Quick Take

**Score:** B · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 3/6 · **Moonshot:** 63

= MoonshotScore <strong>63</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="9-pillar formula">[9-pillar formula]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="6-lens rule">[6-lens rule]</sup>. Form 4: 0 transactions<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>.

## Watchlist (6 metrics)

### 1. Xsiam Arr Growth

Palo Alto Networks' XSIAM surpassed the $0.5 billion ARR milestone with over 600 customers paying an average of nearly $1 million in ARR.

> "In Q2, XSIAM surpassed the $0.5 billion ARR milestone. We welcomed almost 150 new customers, bringing our total base to over 600, paying an average of nearly $1 million in ARR."
> — Nikesh Arora, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Fy28 Free Cash Flow Margin Target

Palo Alto Networks remains confident in its ability to deliver significant scale and leverage, enabling it to achieve its target of 40% free cash flow margin by fiscal 2028.

> "Taken together, we believe this disciplined approach to integration reinforces our confidence in delivering sustained growth and operating leverage, enabling us to achieve our target of 40% free cash flow margin by fiscal 2028."
> — Dipak Golechha, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Sase Arr Growth

Palo Alto Networks' SASE business surpassed the $1.5 billion ARR milestone while growing approximately 40% year-on-year.

> "In Q2, our SASE business continued to go from stand to stand, surpassing the $1.5 billion ARR milestone while growing approximately 40% year-on-year, solidifying our position as the fastest-growing SASE provider at scale."
> — Nikesh Arora, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Prisma Airs Customer Growth

Palo Alto Networks' Prisma AIRS platform more than tripled its customer count from Q1 to Q2, exceeding 100 customers.

> "From Q1 to Q2, we more than tripled our customer count to over 100."
> — Nikesh Arora, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 5. Ngs Arr Growth

Palo Alto Networks reported NGS ARR growth of 33% to $6.33 billion.

> "The increasing adoption of our platforms is most evident in our next-generation security ARR, which grew 33% to $6.33 billion."
> — Dipak Golechha, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 6. Chronosphere Arr

Palo Alto Networks' Chronosphere generated approximately $200 million in ARR as of Q2.

> "The momentum is clear in the numbers with the company generating approximately $200 million in ARR as of Q2, well above our expectations."
> — Nikesh Arora, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore Pillars

| Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 7.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+13.3%) |
| Gross Margin | 7.0 | strong | Q2: very high margin (73.6%, software/cloud territory) |
| Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (15.4%) |
| Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.6B, 7.6× CapEx) |
| R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | very high R&D (20.6%, margin pressure risk) |
| Price Momentum | 7.0 | strong | RSI 60.2 positive momentum, 50d above |
| News Sentiment | 8.0 | strong | strong buy consensus (80%) |

**Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7-Lens)

| Name | Stance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +10.4% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | flow · 50d MA above |
| Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 60 |
| Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +10.4% |
| Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 |
| Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +10.4% |

**Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## Munger Lens

- **Verdict:** Fairly Valued
- **Financial Health:** Moderate
- **Margin of Safety:** Moderate
- **Interest Coverage:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## Technical Levels

- **RSI(14):** 60.2 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50d MA:** $164 — hisse %10.5 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200d MA:** $185 — hisse %2.1 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **Volume (10d):** -15%

## Past Performance (4 Quarters)

| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | $0.80 | $0.77 | BEAT | -6.8% |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.95 | $0.89 | BEAT | +3.1% |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.93 | $0.89 | BEAT | -7.4% |
| Q2 FY26 | $1.03 | $0.94 | +9.7% EPS | -6.8% |

Q2 (February 17, 2026): EPS $1.03 vs $0.94 est<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, +9.7% beat. D+1 movement: -6.8%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

## 3 Scenarios

### Scenario A · Beat
**Q4 EPS > $0.81 + CapEx discipline**

Threshold: EPS > $0.81<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>.

Target: Break above median target $200<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>; high target $265<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> upper bound.

### Scenario B · In-Line
**EPS ≈ $0.81 + CapEx < $84.0M**

Threshold: EPS ≈ $0.81<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>, Q4 CapEx < $84.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>.

Target: Consolidation in the band between current $181<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> and median $200<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup>.

### Scenario C · Miss
**EPS < $0.79 or CapEx ≥ $84.0M**

Threshold: EPS < $0.79<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>.

Target: Current $181 below SMA200 $185<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>, if rejection continues, $157<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> support activates.

## Risk Notes

### Primary segment below threshold
Q2: EPS $1.03 vs $0.94 beat<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>, stock -6.8% D+1<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>.

### Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

### Insider trading
Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.

| Executive | Action | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|


**Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q2 FY26

### CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $84.0M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>. Q2 op margin 15.4%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

## Wall Street Consensus

- **Median target:** $200 (+10.4% upside vs current $181)
- **High / Low:** $265 / $157
- **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 45 / 10 / 1
- **Analyst count:** 19 (last quarter), 182 all-time

## Additional Transcript Insights

### 1. ngs_arr_growth

**Claim:** Palo Alto Networks reported NGS ARR growth of 33% to $6.33 billion.

**Evidence (transcript):** "The increasing adoption of our platforms is most evident in our next-generation security ARR, which grew 33% to $6.33 billion."

**Numbers:** 33%, $6.33 billion

### 2. sase_arr_growth

**Claim:** Palo Alto Networks' SASE business surpassed the $1.5 billion ARR milestone while growing approximately 40% year-on-year.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In Q2, our SASE business continued to go from stand to stand, surpassing the $1.5 billion ARR milestone while growing approximately 40% year-on-year, solidifying our position as the fastest-growing SASE provider at scale."

**Numbers:** $1.5 billion, 40%

### 3. xsiam_arr_growth

**Claim:** Palo Alto Networks' XSIAM surpassed the $0.5 billion ARR milestone with over 600 customers paying an average of nearly $1 million in ARR.

**Evidence (transcript):** "In Q2, XSIAM surpassed the $0.5 billion ARR milestone. We welcomed almost 150 new customers, bringing our total base to over 600, paying an average of nearly $1 million in ARR."

**Numbers:** $0.5 billion, 150, 600, $1 million

### 4. prisma_airs_customer_growth

**Claim:** Palo Alto Networks' Prisma AIRS platform more than tripled its customer count from Q1 to Q2, exceeding 100 customers.

**Evidence (transcript):** "From Q1 to Q2, we more than tripled our customer count to over 100."

**Numbers:** Q1, Q2, 100

### 5. chronosphere_arr

**Claim:** Palo Alto Networks' Chronosphere generated approximately $200 million in ARR as of Q2.

**Evidence (transcript):** "The momentum is clear in the numbers with the company generating approximately $200 million in ARR as of Q2, well above our expectations."

**Numbers:** $200 million, Q2

### 6. fy28_free_cash_flow_margin_target

**Claim:** Palo Alto Networks remains confident in its ability to deliver significant scale and leverage, enabling it to achieve its target of 40% free cash flow margin by fiscal 2028.

**Evidence (transcript):** "Taken together, we believe this disciplined approach to integration reinforces our confidence in delivering sustained growth and operating leverage, enabling us to achieve our target of 40% free cash flow margin by fiscal 2028."

**Numbers:** 40%, 2028


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*Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q2 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*