--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/pcar last_updated: 2026-05-09T17:58:08.099Z --- # PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-09T17:58:07.650Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $114.31 (▲ 0.23%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $60.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $90.05 – $131.88 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Tue 28 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $1.33 (-3% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $7.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 0/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $126 (+9.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## PACCAR Inc — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $7.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $1.33^{[FMP est]}. 0 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B+ · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (6 metrics) ### 1. Capex Rd Investments This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. > "This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects." > — Kevin D. Baney, President, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Parts Sales Growth We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year. > "We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year." > — Kevin D. Baney, President, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Truck Gross Margin Increase PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance. > "PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance." > — Preston Feight, CEO, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Q2 Deliveries Guidance PACCAR expects to deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles in Q2 2026. > "In the second quarter, we will deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles." > — Preston Feight, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Q2 Margin Forecast Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase. > "Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase." > — Preston Feight, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Us Canada Truck Market Outlook Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units. > "Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units." > — Preston Feight, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-17.0%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 1.0 | weak | Q1: low margin (13.1%, capital-intensive or commodity) | | Operating Leverage | 1.0 | weak | op margin average (9.0%) | | Cash Runway | 10.0 | strong | FCF very strong ($0.8B, 5.6× CapEx) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (1.6%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 38.4 weak momentum, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 4.0 | medium | mixed (35% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +9.8% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 38 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +9.8% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 4/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +9.8% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 38.4 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50d MA:** $120 — hisse %4.5 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $110 — hisse %4.0 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -36% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $1.37 | $1.29 | BEAT | +2.6% | | Q3 FY25 | $1.12 | $1.15 | MISS | -0.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.06 | $1.06 | MISS | +1.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.15 | $1.15 | +0.0% EPS | -1.2% | Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 est^[FMP], +0.0% beat. D+1 movement: -1.2%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $1.33 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $1.33^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $126^{[FMP target]}; high target $138^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $1.33 + CapEx < $147.2M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $1.33^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $147.2M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $114^[FMP] and median $126^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $1.29 or CapEx ≥ $147.2M** Threshold: EPS < $1.29^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $114 below SMA200 $110^[FMP], if rejection continues, $93^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 beat^[FMP], stock -1.2% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $147.2M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 9.0%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $126 (+9.8% upside vs current $114) - **High / Low:** $138 / $109 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 7 / 13 / 0 - **Analyst count:** 2 (last quarter), 47 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. q2_deliveries_guidance **Claim:** PACCAR expects to deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles in Q2 2026. **Evidence (transcript):** "In the second quarter, we will deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles." **Numbers:** 37 thousand, 38 thousand ### 2. truck_gross_margin_increase **Claim:** PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance. **Evidence (transcript):** "PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance." **Numbers:** 12%, 13.1% ### 3. q2_margin_forecast **Claim:** Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase. **Evidence (transcript):** "Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase." **Numbers:** 13.5% ### 4. parts_sales_growth **Claim:** We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year. **Evidence (transcript):** "We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year." **Numbers:** 3%, 3%, 6% ### 5. capex_rd_investments **Claim:** This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects. **Evidence (transcript):** "This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects." **Numbers:** $725 million, $775 million, $450 million, $500 million ### 6. us_canada_truck_market_outlook **Claim:** Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units. **Evidence (transcript):** "Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units." **Numbers:** 230 thousand, 270 thousand --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-09), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*