--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/earnings/pep last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:02:27.374Z --- # PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview > This content was automatically generated with FMP live data + Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript. Generated: 2026-05-03T21:02:26.223Z. Educational tool, not investment advice. --- ## Quick Summary | Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Price | $157.41 (▼ -0.68%) | fmp:quote | | Market Cap | $215.2B | fmp:profile | | 52w range | $127.60 – $171.48 | fmp:quote | | Earnings | Thu 16 Jul | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS estimate | $2.20 (+4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Revenue estimate | $24.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | Beat streak | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | Rating | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | Analyst median target | $170 (+8.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 30/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | Munger verdict | Fairly Valued | derived | ## PepsiCo, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 Expectations Q4 consensus: revenue $24.0B^{[FMP est]}, EPS $2.20^{[FMP est]}. 4 consecutive quarters of beat^{[FMP earnings]}. ## Quick Take **Score:** B · **Stance:** HOLD · **Council:** 2/6 · **Moonshot:** 30 = MoonshotScore 30^{[9-pillar formula]} + Council 2/6^{[6-lens rule]}. Form 4: 0 transactions^{[FMP Form 4]}. ## Watchlist (5 metrics) ### 1. Pfna Volume Growth PepsiCo's North America Foods business saw a 2% volume growth, resulting from a combination of factors including more value to the consumer, more space, restaging of key brands, and innovation. > "So when you see the 2% volume growth is a combination of all these elements, more value in some of the core brands, multipacks and multiserve is one lever, but it's a much more holistic." > — Ramon Laguarta, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Away From Home Growth PepsiCo's away-from-home business is growing 3x the average of the company, a result of the company's growth-focused strategy. > "The away from home business is growing 3x the average of the company." > — Ramon Laguarta, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. International Growth PepsiCo's international business is strategically important and continues to accelerate; no impact on demand has been seen since the war started. > "Now with regards to the international business, as you saw, is very strategic to our long-term growth strategy is one of the key pillars. It's been accelerating. And actually, to your question, it continues to accelerate. So we haven't seen an impact on demand in the last -- since the war started." > — Ramon Laguarta, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Inflation Mitigation PepsiCo will manage inflation through three approaches: growing through it, pushing harder on productivity, and using pricing strategies, prioritizing the first two. > "One, you grow your way through it and really leverage your infrastructure. The second is you push harder on productivity. And third, you do have options with your price pack architecture. We'd like to do the majority of it through the first 2." > — Stephen Schmitt, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Permissible Portfolio Growth PepsiCo's permissible portfolio is growing double digit, indicating the success of the company's focus on healthy and functional products. > "The permissible portfolio is growing double digit in some of the brands." > — Ramon Laguarta, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore Pillars | Pillar | Score | Level | Evidence | |---|---|---|---| | Revenue Growth | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-14.4%, contraction) | | Gross Margin | 6.0 | medium | Q1: high margin (55.2%) | | Operating Leverage | 2.0 | weak | op margin healthy (16.5%) | | Cash Runway | 3.0 | weak | FCF negative ($-0.4B, external financing needed) | | R&D Intensity | 3.0 | weak | low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation) | | Price Momentum | 4.0 | medium | RSI 53.0 balanced, 50d below | | News Sentiment | 3.0 | weak | mixed (35% buy) | **Formula:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7-Lens) | Name | Stance | Context | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | macro · target upside +8.0% | | Ken Griffin | bear | flow · 50d MA below | | Jim Simons | neutral | quant · RSI 53 | | Klarman | neutral | value · target upside +8.0% | | Buffett | bull | quality · ROE score 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | valuation · target upside +8.0% | **Formula:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## Munger Lens - **Verdict:** Fairly Valued - **Financial Health:** Moderate - **Margin of Safety:** Weak - **Interest Coverage:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **Formula:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## Technical Levels - **RSI(14):** 53.0 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50d MA:** $158 — hisse %0.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200d MA:** $150 — hisse %5.0 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **Volume (10d):** -18% ## Past Performance (4 Quarters) | Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Result | Reaction | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $2.12 | $2.03 | BEAT | -1.5% | | Q3 FY25 | $2.29 | $2.26 | BEAT | +3.7% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.26 | $2.24 | BEAT | +2.0% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.61 | $1.54 | +4.5% EPS | -0.4% | Q1 (April 16, 2026): EPS $1.61 vs $1.54 est^[FMP], +4.5% beat. D+1 movement: -0.4%^{[FMP D+1]}. Decline despite beat — market reacted to guidance, not numbers. ## 3 Scenarios ### Scenario A · Beat **Q4 EPS > $2.20 + CapEx discipline** Threshold: EPS > $2.20^{[FMP est]}. Target: Break above median target $170^{[FMP target]}; high target $191^[FMP] upper bound. ### Scenario B · In-Line **EPS ≈ $2.20 + CapEx < $447.0M** Threshold: EPS ≈ $2.20^{[FMP est]}, Q4 CapEx < $447.0M^[FMP]. Target: Consolidation in the band between current $157^[FMP] and median $170^[FMP]. ### Scenario C · Miss **EPS < $2.13 or CapEx ≥ $447.0M** Threshold: EPS < $2.13^{[FMP est×0.97]}. Target: Current $157 below SMA200 $150^[FMP], if rejection continues, $127^[derived] support activates. ## Risk Notes ### Primary segment below threshold Q1: EPS $1.61 vs $1.54 beat^[FMP], stock -0.4% D+1^[FMP]. ### Backlog concentration No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call. ### Insider trading Form 4 data is marked in the table — this page does not generate assumptions for this stock. | Executive | Action | Amount | Date | |---|---|---|---| **Net:** — (0 transactions · 0 sells · 0 buys) · Q1 FY26 ### CapEx shock Q1 CapEx $447.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}. Q1 op margin 16.5%^{[FMP op margin]} — this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk. ## Wall Street Consensus - **Median target:** $170 (+8.0% upside vs current $157) - **High / Low:** $191 / $158 - **Buy / Hold / Sell:** 8 / 14 / 1 - **Analyst count:** 9 (last quarter), 71 all-time ## Additional Transcript Insights ### 1. inflation_mitigation **Claim:** PepsiCo will manage inflation through three approaches: growing through it, pushing harder on productivity, and using pricing strategies, prioritizing the first two. **Evidence (transcript):** "One, you grow your way through it and really leverage your infrastructure. The second is you push harder on productivity. And third, you do have options with your price pack architecture. We'd like to do the majority of it through the first 2." **Numbers:** 2 ### 2. international_growth **Claim:** PepsiCo's international business is strategically important and continues to accelerate; no impact on demand has been seen since the war started. **Evidence (transcript):** "Now with regards to the international business, as you saw, is very strategic to our long-term growth strategy is one of the key pillars. It's been accelerating. And actually, to your question, it continues to accelerate. So we haven't seen an impact on demand in the last -- since the war started." **Numbers:** — ### 3. pfna_volume_growth **Claim:** PepsiCo's North America Foods business saw a 2% volume growth, resulting from a combination of factors including more value to the consumer, more space, restaging of key brands, and innovation. **Evidence (transcript):** "So when you see the 2% volume growth is a combination of all these elements, more value in some of the core brands, multipacks and multiserve is one lever, but it's a much more holistic." **Numbers:** 2% ### 4. away_from_home_growth **Claim:** PepsiCo's away-from-home business is growing 3x the average of the company, a result of the company's growth-focused strategy. **Evidence (transcript):** "The away from home business is growing 3x the average of the company." **Numbers:** 3x ### 5. permissible_portfolio_growth **Claim:** PepsiCo's permissible portfolio is growing double digit, indicating the success of the company's focus on healthy and functional products. **Evidence (transcript):** "The permissible portfolio is growing double digit in some of the brands." **Numbers:** — --- *Data source: FMP (live query, 2026-05-03), Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript (Translated to EN with Gemini 2.0 Flash). Educational tool, not investment advice.*